steven capital 🐧

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steven capital 🐧

steven capital 🐧

@lifelonghacker

Vancouver, British Columbia Katılım Mart 2018
642 Takip Edilen319 Takipçiler
Paul, not a CFA
Paul, not a CFA@Investmentideen·
Imo. $SABR is a multi bagger from here if they let $CSU.TO restructure the business - at least 4x, in 36 months. In addition to my previous thoughts, there’s upside from refinancing the expensive debt. P/E is a much better metric here to use than EV/X. SABR won’t pay down the debt, but distribute the profits back to the mothership - CSU, as dividends. I bought a small position (3%).
Paul, not a CFA@Investmentideen

Some quick thoughts on $SABR / $CSU that I wrote up yesterday: SABR is effectively bankrupt unless it can materially improve profitability. The company carries a very high debt load that wipes out its roughly 10% EBITDA margin once interest expense is included. Realistically, their only viable path is a partnership with Constellation Software; the alternative is chapter 11. At around 2.7bn in revenue, the business could potentially reach a 30% EBITDA margin, implying about 810m in EBITDA. After roughly 440m of interest expense, that would leave about 370m in EBT and, assuming a 21% tax rate, around 292m in free cash flow. With a current market cap of roughly 460m, the stock is trading at about 1.6x this potential free cash flow. Given the amount of debt in the capital structure, any improvement in profitability would translate into significant operating leverage for equity holders. Constellation has also not given up on installing one of its own directors on SABR’s board. The candidate is Damian McKay, CEO of Vela, which owns Juniper, the travel platform within Constellation; as the former CEO of Datamine, he brings substantial operational experience.

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Jerry Capital
Jerry Capital@JerryCap·
Insane bench at $CSU anyone worried about Mark leaving is a donkey. My pick is $LMN for next CEO. Who you got?
Jerry Capital tweet media
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Oli
Oli@OlivierBib·
Friday night surprise from the propane cowboys 🤠 $TVK.TO
Oli tweet media
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Bucket Capital
Bucket Capital@PatiencePays_hs·
@Investmentideen Form 4 says they bought at 1.17 but that is only the last tranche. Where can you see their average purchase price?
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Paul, not a CFA
Paul, not a CFA@Investmentideen·
Right now, you can buy $SABR at almost the same price $CSU.TO paid — around US$1.71. „the modeling in terms of the weighting of worst case versus winter case are going to be being much more dispersed, and so will probably result in a lower price, but the hurdle rate is the same." – conference call In other words, if everything goes according to plan, the IRR could end up significantly higher than what they originally expected.
Paul, not a CFA@Investmentideen

x.com/i/article/2052…

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C.J.
C.J.@CJ0pp3l·
@cavdad13 Seems like we arent getting kicked too bad :)
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Paul, not a CFA
Paul, not a CFA@Investmentideen·
@CJ0pp3l Good price right here. Almost doubled my position at pln75
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C.J.
C.J.@CJ0pp3l·
@AppalacheGlobal I think the $32 million includes PEMS. That line on the cash flow statement is the line/amount that matches the Asseco investment from Q1 a year ago
C.J. tweet mediaC.J. tweet media
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C.J.
C.J.@CJ0pp3l·
$CSU.TO -> believe that was record deployment for a Q1 .. $809 million total consideration + $32 million in other investments
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steven capital 🐧 retweetledi
Andrew Ng
Andrew Ng@AndrewYNg·
There will be no AI jobpocalypse. The story that AI will lead to massive unemployment is stoking unnecessary fear. AI — like any other technology — does affect jobs, but telling overblown stories of large-scale unemployment is irresponsible and damaging. Let’s put a stop to it. I’ve expressed skepticism about the jobpocalypse in previous posts. I’m glad to see that the popular press is now pushing back on this narrative. The image below features some recent headlines. Software engineering is the sector most affected by AI tools, as coding agents race ahead. Yet hiring of software engineers remains strong! So while there are examples of AI taking away jobs, the trends strongly suggest the net job creation is vastly greater than the job destruction — just like earlier waves of technology. Further, despite all the exciting progress in AI, the U.S. unemployment rate remains a healthy 4.3%. Why is the AI jobpocalypse narrative so popular? For one thing, frontier AI labs have a strong incentive to tell stories that make AI technology sound more powerful. At their most extreme, they promote science-fiction scenarios of AI “taking over” and causing human extinction. If a technology can replace many employees, surely that technology must be very valuable! Also, a lot of SaaS software companies charge around $100-$1000 per user/year. But if an AI company can replace an employee who makes $100,000 — or make them 50% more productive — then charging even $10,000 starts to look reasonable. By anchoring not to typical SaaS prices but to salaries of employees, AI companies can charge a lot more. Additionally, businesses have a strong incentive to talk about layoffs as if they were caused by AI. After all, talking about how they’re using AI to be far more productive with fewer staff makes them look smart. This is a better message than admitting they overhired during the pandemic when capital was abundant due to low interest rates and a massive government financial stimulus. To be clear, I recognize that AI is causing a lot of people’s work to change. This is hard. This is stressful. (And to some, it can be fun.) I empathize with everyone affected. At the same time, this is very different from predicting a collapse of the job market. Societies are capable of telling themselves stories for years that have little basis in reality and lead to poor society-wide decision making. For example, fears over nuclear plant safety led to under-investment in nuclear power. Fears of the “population bomb” in the 1960s led countries to implement harsh policies to reduce their populations. And worries about dietary fat led governments to promote unhealthy high-sugar diets for decades. Now that mainstream media is openly skeptical about the jobpocalypse, I hope these stories will start to lose their teeth (much like fears of AI-driven human extinction have). Contrary to the predictions of an AI jobpocalypse, I predict the opposite: There will be an AI jobapalooza! AI will lead to a lot more good AI engineering jobs, and I’m also optimistic about the future of the overall job market. What AI engineers do will be different from traditional software engineering, and many of these jobs will be in businesses other than traditional large employers of developers. In non-AI roles, too, the skills needed will change because of AI. That makes this a good time to encourage more people to become proficient in AI, and make sure they’re ready for the different but plentiful jobs of the future! [Original text in The Batch newsletter.]
Andrew Ng tweet media
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steven capital 🐧
steven capital 🐧@lifelonghacker·
@CSUnerd subsequent acquisitions is huge also ~750M. 2026 shaping to be record year for capital deployment
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Product & Investing Nerd
Constellation Software $CSU.TO reported their Q1 numbers, here’s some hlghlights: - Revenue: +20% YoY (w/ 6% from organic) - FCF: +44% YoY - Acquisitions: $809M deployed Anything I missed!?
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steven capital 🐧
steven capital 🐧@lifelonghacker·
Trending to be a record year for capital deployment: Q1: total consideration of $809 million. Subsequent to Q1: total consideration of $786 million. $csu $csu.to
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