
Friendship with lighter ENDED, now nado is my best friend
lincatwo
2.5K posts


Friendship with lighter ENDED, now nado is my best friend

Tell me the craziest conspiracy theory you genuinely believe that would get you like this

Vol will explode when the entire market collectively achieves headline fatigue (imminent)



Two days ago, the BTC-03APR-PERP roll could be bought at $3 per contract. Now it's marked at $20+ and paid over $30 in funding. How does it get so mispriced? Our futures rolls are structurally difficult to price. MMs need to do multiple things at once: • Look at fair value set by deribit futures • But also forecast funding rates on thalex • Then assess funding rate gamma by expiry • And somehow fit a consistent term structure It's virtually impossible to get this right all the time for all expiries. Over the last few days, Thalex went from suppressed to normalized funding. It's hard to predict these regime shifts. Mainly MMs adapt in response to trades telling them they need to price basis higher. Smart retail has the taker edge. They can hide in the tall grass, look for bumps in term structure, compare thalex roll prices to deribit ... then pull the trigger whenever they see a big divergence.

sometimes you hear about people on ct dying, and it doesn’t really register bc they are usually anons you only ever see on the tl or sometimes never even interact with, but when it happens to be a friend of yours, you realize you need to tell your friends you love them more often. another ct og, legend, and gigabrain dev gone far too soon. rip @yvtweets



