@trashavocado @mattyglesias You centrists should love him; he's so moderate and willing to reach out to conservatives that he's got a Nazi tattoo!
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Long March of the Wonks
58 posts
@longmarchofwonk @mattyglesias Let's wait until the Nazi failson actually wins an election before we proclaim him the new model candidate.
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Something you're seeing today is that one of the signature characteristics of the left insurgents is they are very graceless about winning.
They got what they wanted in Maine, but instead of pivoting to bring people in and beat Susan Collins they're doing ongoing factionalism.
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@mattyglesias Don't you think a Graham Platner-style candidate would perform better in a red state than a Janet Mills type?
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I already lived through the "the message that got 51% of the vote in New York City points the way for the national Democratic Party" news cycle without killing myself, so I suppose I can take a Maine cycle too. But at some point we need to win red states.
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@mattyglesias @DavidGriscom Yeah man Kamala Harris definitely lost because Build Back Better and the infrastructure bill were too left-wing. I understand politics.
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@DavidGriscom This is just not true, Democrats lost to Trump after implementing an aggressive program of progressive policy change.
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I know it is easy to dunk on Matthew, but lord, the Democrats not only lost to Trump with this strategy, but lost by such a historically bad margin people were arguing it was a realignment
Matthew Yglesias@mattyglesias
The one thing every smart elected official that I talk to agrees with is that Democrats can't just be anti-Trump, they also need a strong affirmative vision and honestly I am very skeptical of this!
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@JakeRabadi Hey Jake, I'm with you but let's maybe keep these in the tank until after June 1st. Let's not make Howie's job harder lol.
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@ShaqMitchell Can we chill on the AJ clips until after June 1st? Let's not tank the value lol
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This is share of each religious group that agrees with all four statements:
Favor same sex marriage.
Acceptance of transgender and homosexuality has been good for society.
Abortion should be legal in all cases.
Even among the non-religious, it's just 53%.
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@umichvoter Alright, I looked at your profile, and you expanded/contextualized the data more there, so fair enough. Think @lxeagle17 riled us up by trying to use this one chart to make a claim on how terrible her performance was.
x.com/lxeagle17/stat…
Lakshya Jain@lxeagle17
@gelliottmorris It's fun to score X dunk points from people who don't know any better. But are you seriously trying to argue that Mejia's performance is *good* given the electorate that turned out? That's insane. x.com/umichvoter/sta…
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@longmarchofwonk babe i recorded LIVE voter turnout all day like florida
ofc i was gonna use that
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leftist brain rot in the replies
umichvoter@umichvoter
Mejia underperformance versus the electorate
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@CantEverDie @isaiah_bb Yeah, they are just completely inventing a new baseline by comparing against the estimated turnout by party of the electorate. Something they have conspicuously never done for any other candidate lmao
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@isaiah_bb i thought i was going crazy watching centrists claim this even though she outperformed both biden and kamalas elections here. these people are bonkers
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@lxeagle17 @gelliottmorris Do you think it's worth it to totally burn your credibility as an unbiased data analyst to left punch unconvincingly? A +12 overperformance of the presidential is right in line with the average.
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@gelliottmorris It's fun to score X dunk points from people who don't know any better. But are you seriously trying to argue that Mejia's performance is *good* given the electorate that turned out? That's insane. x.com/umichvoter/sta…
umichvoter@umichvoter
Mejia underperformance versus the electorate
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obviously what democrats really need to be doing to win elections in suburban seats is to nominate moderates who vote with republicans on immigration and identity issues
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@USA_Polling It's very funny that this is the strawman the centrists have retreated to. No leftist said everyone knew him! He was just supporting a candidate he liked. It was Third Way that went out of its way to try to force every candidate to proactively denounce him.
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Once again, I am vindicated by assuming no one knows or gives a shit about Hasan Piker (Or any streamer)
80% of Democratic primary voters in Michigan don't know who he is/don't know him enough to have an opinion according to this same poll and his net-favorables are at like +5% among those who do lmao
Polling USA@USA_Polling
Michigan - DEM Senate Polling : Stevens: 23% Mcmorrow: 22% El-Sayad: 22% Data For Progress / April 8, 2026
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@KBP9a91 @Saadiq96310968 I think plenty of them would say, then why are we sending all of this money to support one side in an ethnic conflict I don't care about, instead of on healthcare or housing here in America?
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@Saadiq96310968 Blue collar mechanics are worrying about things like healthcare and rising housing costs (some of which Hasan addressed).
Struggling people don’t give a damn about an ethnic squabble on the other side of the globe, and they shouldn’t be expected to.
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>TFW I try to tell my girl blue collar mechanics in PA vote on “holding Israel accountable”
(she’s so patient lol)
hasanabi@hasanthehun
guy who wrote “how to” articles about sex tourism in asia fantasizing about mechanics in the rust belt like they’re savages who’d hate m4a, free college and holding israel accountable. buddy you’re in for a wild ride if you ever go outside.
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@mattyglesias Isn't a big part of this just rational decision-making on the part of the protesters? Understanding that left-wing campus protests are far more likely to influence the policy-making of a democratic administration. Whereas with Trump, they would probably be welcomed as a foil?
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@lxeagle17 @ettingermentum What are you actually arguing for here, though? What is the magical message that would get white working-class women to vote more Democratic? Just be more socially moderate? In that case, why are Dems gaining more among moderate men already?
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@ettingermentum Sure. You can say Joe Rogan as well — not just about Hasan. It's equally useless.
The core of it is this is that it's not about visibility. It's about the message, not the messenger. It's this fixation on podcasts from people whose job it is to make candidates go on podcasts.
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More than Hispanics and young voters, it's white women (specifically white, *non-college* women) who are souring on Trump the fastest.
But unlike the others, they're not swinging blue. Huge and unique gap between Trump disapproval and Dem vote share.
theargumentmag.com/p/women-are-do…
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@EWErickson Mad Man theory obviously cannot be effective if all of his supporters go, "Oh, he's just doing Mad Man theory" every time he says something insane. So either he's actually insane, or he's doing an incredibly weak and ineffective bluff. Happy with either of those?
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What's actually happening here is the President has embraced the "mad man" theory and is trying to convince the Iranians that he's willing to do whatever to wipe them out in hopes of getting a deal. The failure is that the President, like so many others, doesn't actually appreciate that the Iranians are mad men who live in a fundamentally religious world where they really do believe they are to wipe out Israel and their citizens are expendable. But no, this is not an unhinged President. It's a man playing a role as a negotiation tactic. Unfortunately, the President is going to be backed into a corner of extreme options by doing this, or be mocked for TACO again.
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@SarahLongwell25 You're tilting hard. Disengage!
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How is she doing this without going on DSA podcasts?
Benjamin Freeman@benwfreeman1
Pro-Fish Alaska Democratic candidate Mary Peltola has a 59% chance of flipping the Alaska Senate seat from incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan
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@KyleKulinski It's incredibly frustrating, but there is a sense in which she is actually describing the true power dynamic. Congress's war declaration powers are basically a dead letter. Shouldn't be like that, and she should admit it, but it's true.
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This makes me want to die. Every debate with right-wingers and warmongers is like this.
Ryan Grim@ryangrim
Ok this is legit funny
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@mattyglesias @nick_field90 Does Fetterman not have agency? He has to become a Trump supporter because some progressives were mad at him?
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@mattyglesias Weird! Did something happen since then that increased the salience?
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@DKThomp Derek, the war in Iran has about 41% support in the US currently. Do you think Israel and the United States bombing Tehran and hitting girls' school has greater than 41% support in the country? What are you thinking?
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There is going to be some contingency of folks who read this comment as a strong defense of the bombing. It's not.
What Karim is emphasizing here isn't a moral argument but just basic arithmetic: the Islamic Republic is loathed in Iran, but the bombing campaign is already very unpopular in the US. That gap matters, because the war's outcome at this point is mostly a function of American consumer sentiment. If markets tank or ratings crater, Trump will pull the plug and the regime will almost certainly survive, possibly in a more brutal form.
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"I think this might be one of the few instances in modern history where a greater percentage of the society being bombed was supportive of military action than the society that was doing the bombing." - @ksadjadpour
Incredible line.
youtube.com/clip/UgkxHy-39…
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