@teortaxesTex Because his corporate job was in the Americas as a trader.
He was never an economist...
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IgnorantLurker
1.5K posts
The core conceit of Pettis is that China can be modeled as Soviet Brazil
ebipere@ebipere
The Pettis–Tooze divergence may actually be quite straightforward. Pettis is looking at the financial economy: debt, bad investment, suppressed consumption, and losses waiting to be recognised. Tooze is looking at the real economy: factories, batteries, EVs, solar panels, supply chains, and industrial capacity. They are connected - loosely-coupled - but they are not the same thing. In a fiat world, that distinction matters more because the tie between financial claims and real output is looser, more political, and more discretionary than it was under gold. A bubble in finance does not automatically destroy productive capacity. And productive capacity does not automatically validate every financial claim written against it. That is why both Pettis and Tooze may be right at the same time. Pettis sees the distortion in the claims. Tooze sees the strength in the capacity. The real question is how the state manages the gap between the two. Under gold, that gap had a harder edge. Bad claims could persist for a while, but they eventually ran into the convertibility constraint. Under fiat, adjustment can be deferred, socialised, refinanced, inflated away, repressed, or pushed through the fiscal state. That is the post-1971 world: the financial economy can lie for longer, the real economy can endure beneath the lie, and the state decides how violently the two are made to meet - and who bears the loss. Pettis: carnegieendowment.org/china-financia… Tooze: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-44… #ElasticEconomics #FunctionalFinance #MalleableMonetarism
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@AnalyticaCamil1 Since you cursed us, we'll roll into the timeline where we get an infectious variant with a few dozen cases.
Conveniently from the one super spreader who needed to get to a conference.
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The adverse effects of actually catching Hantavirus organically are having a 50/50 chance of bleeding from everyone of your orifices and then just fucking dying.
Do not listen to these antivaxxer fucking morons, we cannot as a ‘species’ drop the ball on this.
Nicolas Hulscher, MPH@NicHulscher
The US Army already ran a clinical trial with an Andes strain hantavirus DNA gene-therapy injection — the exact same strain behind the cruise ship outbreak. 98% of participants suffered adverse events. The DNA plasmid was created at the Fort Detrick BSL-4 army lab.
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@DeepDishEnjoyer As fun as it is punching down, he sounds 'talented' enough to earn a living off subscriptions even as a dropout.
Might escape the permanent underclass by sheer will and grift. Fake it until you make it.
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@econoadabsurdam @czmarks @DrewPavlou Smoking being less culturally acceptable brings down illicit smoking over time.
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@czmarks @DrewPavlou but it's not supressing smoking, it's incentivising illicit smoking
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Y'all laughed at Arthur Laffer, but the Australian Treasury proved him right with cigarettes
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@atelicinvest Lol thought it was someone 'managing' an apartment complex.
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Don’t know why all you degenerates are complaining so much about the CGT changes… you seem to be forgetting that in order to pay CGT, you actually have to make a capital gain in the first place.
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@Stephenr009 @GlennLuk carnegieendowment.org/europe/strateg…
Pettis' original sin was to assume his model of the Chinese economy is axiomatically true and not a model.
No new growth drivers matter or could exist because of accounting identities. That's why he's been doomer bait for the relatively well-read.
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"China is late 80s Japan" - Pettis (2011)
"China is late 80s Japan" - Pettis (2013)
"China is late 80s Japan" - Pettis (2021)
"China is late 80s Japan" - Pettis (2026)
Pettis has been drawing this comparison of China to Japan on the brink of its multi-decade stagnation for the better part of two decades.
This comparison was one of the crucial supporting points to confident forecasts on the GDP growth rate ("a ceiling of 3%") that China could sustain over the long run ... forecasts which despite a two-decade run of being completely wrong ... he continues to cling to.
This is what happens when you make a forecast a core part of your identity.
Glenn@GlennLuk
China has been “late 80s Japan” for 12 years in a row. Must be a record or something.
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@Stephenr009 @GlennLuk Being a bit generous since he actually alluded to a major reckoning pre-2015.
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@Stephenr009 @GlennLuk Pettis' thesis is actually, China has run out of road to kick the can post-GFC!
So he's saying attempts to prop up GDP growth collapses spectacularly during that 2011-2020 period, which was a wrong prediction.
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@dannolan Your NDIS fraud scheme is safe since they'll never touch it.
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@batkomichael @jason_king72 1000 family offices each with $10k
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@AnalyticaCamil1 Whiskey Pete was right about the decimated part at least, lmao.
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IMO, the funniest part of this entire war is when an OSINTer found a livestreaming camera that captured the region of sky just above one of Iran’s launch silos, and they watched it get bombed, fire off a missile, get bombed again, fire off another missile, and so on and so forth.
Murtaza Hussain@MazMHussain
NYT reporting on classified U.S. intelligence assessments of Iranian missile capacity reiterates that they maintained 70% of their missiles and launchers but adds that 90% of their underground storage and launch facilities are also still active. Iran had designed is missile program with the acknowledgement of not being able to protect its airspace and relied on hardened underground "missile cities" to compensate. U.S. and Israeli attacks apparently disabled the entrances to some of these facilities and hit surface buildings. But as many observed at the time the attacks were failing to actually penetrate the underground facilities where the operations were carried out and missiles kept in storage. Most problematically for a renewed campaign the missile complexes near Hormuz are almost all still active according to the assessment. If the U.S. intel assessment is accurate it also explains why Iran was able to maintain a steady rate of missile fire until the end of the war, and also suggests that the U.S. and Israel simply wasted a lot of top-tier standoff munitions firing at rock complexes that it failed to penetrate.
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@RenrawT @gbrumfiel @latimes @nabihbulos If it was the inverse that happened, and they bomb the entire family after the Israeli side doesn't separate, what do we call this?
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@gbrumfiel @latimes @nabihbulos So Israel helped prevent the deaths of civilians…and you’re upset about that…why?
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An absolutely astonishing account of Israel's AI-assisted targeting in the @latimes
They called 62-year-old Ahmad Turmus and asked: “Ahmad, you want to die with those around you or alone?” His response, below, is chilling.
Story by @nabihbulos
latimes.com/world-nation/s…
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@JinxMathalos Skip story, rush events on last day, go to bed, repeat.
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@GavMcCracken Most memorable 10 bagger was getting bailed out by microsoft buying activision with a few days left.
Can confirm the stress.
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I started with 1.5k and have hit three ~10-baggers in a row and can confirm going all in on a single pick will have you stressed and unable to sleep at night.
This guy goes on to say "you only need five" if you start with 10k.
There's a bubble.
Wasteland Capital@ecommerceshares
You only need three 10-baggers in order to go from $1 million to $1 billion. $1m to $10m $10m to $100m $100m to $1bn If you’re starting with $10k, you only need five.
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@joethe_duck @dex_eve Crimea was a bad idea, no matter how successful it was, because it gave way to 2022.
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@dex_eve When the analyst nerds in twitter say it will be a bad idea it means it’ll be a good idea.
Decker is the same type of person who said something like a Maduro snatch was a bad idea.
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This is - for a astronomical number of reasons, really there will be an "e" after the first integer - a bad idea.
Tyler Rogoway@Aviation_Intel
Possibility Of Operation To Retrieve Iran’s Enriched Uranium Appears To Rise As Negotiations Sputter Both Trump and Netanyahu made comments in the last 24 hours that point to a possible high-risk operation to snatch Iran's nuclear material. twz.com/news-features/…
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@GlennLuk We all know accounting identities is being treated as a maths proof. So Pettis can hide behind it and never have to seriously defend his crank theories.
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Just started on this hefty tome. Link in image ALT.
But already off to a blazing start out of the gates with a treatise on accounting identities featuring the vocabulary word of the day “obscurantism”, or the “charge of deliberately presenting information in an abstruse and imprecise manner that limits further inquiry and understanding of a subject”
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I thought it was a baby
Fighting Video's@web3gishLamido
Guys, do you think I can still get my hair back?
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