Dr. Skywalker
77 posts
Just coincidence we are down today after flashing a historic extension? $SMH
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel
$SMH just hit 10x ATR from the 50sma today! The last time SMH was this extended from the 50sma was... Never That's right. Since inception it has NEVER been this stretched from the 50sma. We are now part of history! Make sure you share and tag those who bitched and moaned about the low volume on the way up
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The most insane part is that if we really compare this AI bull market to the Internet Boom analogue - we are just getting started!
Christian Flanders@CFlanders7
Pretty incredible action in the market. A friend asked me to rank the rally. I'd say its up there as one of the best ever since the 90s, only behind COVID and 98/99.
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When price hits a multiple of my risk, I move my stop loss to breakeven. Period. If it shakes me out and rips back, I don't care. I'll just move to the next setup without losing capital.
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@CFlanders7 I'd be super cautious when my 'wife indicator' is off.
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Just to clarify. This isn't a "sell everything" signal (although it could be). It's more to be aware that you have become outcome focused instead of process focused and your ego has likely taken hold of the steering wheel.
You don't want your ego driving the car.
Christian Flanders@CFlanders7
Just FYI, if you are taking screenshots of your PnL and sending it to friends. That is a red flag.
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I see everybody is scared as shit now that memory and CPU's are simultaneously into nosebleed territory
Power Trends don't die like this less than a month in. We have new EP's emerging. A little rest is probably coming soon but as long as you're aware of that and not max yolo long right now it'll be fine imo
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Semis look parabolic. I am trailing the moving averages to manage risk, but I suspect there is more room to run. The volume hasn't shown the final blow-off triggers just yet.
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@RealSimpleAriel Volume doesn't seem to be reaching the parabolic level... but who knows?😅
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🚀 5/3: TQQQ trend-following model
🟢 LONG since 4/9 → +36.0% net (peak +37.1%, day 17)
🟢 Regime: BULL · QQQ +9.7% > SMA140 · VIX 17 · weekly↑ · MACD↑ · RSI 75
⏸️ 5/4: HOLD
🎯 Flip: QQQ -9.7% or VIX→45
📊 '99-'26 +74.3% CAGR / -37.9% DD · '10-'26 +99.2% / -18.0%
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It is wild to see people praise Mark Minervini and claim to learn so much from him in TraderLion interviews, only to turn around and call him a 'filthy pumper' in private Discord channels. The level of hypocrisy in this community is honestly shocking. 🤡
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Wow, names like $TOWA (6315) are super boring to watch…
Especially since KR/TW markets are closed today.
Only up ~11% so far. But like Hammond or Tower Semi…
Towa seems like a pretty steady compounder up throughout the duration of new memory cycles.
Bc it receives unavoidable capex inflows from $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung their monopoly status.
At least Enplas has some volatility… (, they grew their AI test segment 225%+ operating profit y/y)
Then "Mass production of lenses for 1.6T optical transceivers has launched."
Pretty sure they’re sandbagging + have legacy drag confusing algorithms regarding AI segment acceleration.
Good time to take a break from watching markets I guess.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
So just putting it out there: Towa (6315), at $1.35B... Is a rare, living definition of monopoly over HBM4 (compression molding). It's been kinda flat YTD, but every memory company like $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung are their customers. And each of the memory company earnings signaled massive capex increases. Even as seen with $TSM earnings, every major semi is going through a massive capex cycle to meet AI demand. And all three memory makers have printed from hbm3e and nand... so the next capex cycle is probably not like the last (meaning a lot more spend). Like $ASML, this is hyper-cyclical but I wanted exposure to the upcoming HBM4 capex ramp over these next few months. Thought I'd put this name on people's radar alongside $LPK (glass core substrates) as a functional monopoly. But I do feel like this timing is about right while every machine supplier is having a massive re-rating yet this was relatively flat. Not exactly a new find, since a few other analysts + random followers had this name but hope I get the timing right. (Disclaimer: I do hold positions, this just TLDR of my own thoughts, please don’t copy trade)
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@aleabitoreddit You don't need to remove those scam replies manually. Create a claude skill and delegate. The skill can identify fake accounts, delete post, and report.
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Just a PSA: (I normally try to stay on topic)
But I get like 50-100 new message requests a day...
I try my best to respond to all your direct messages, but it's really hard to keep up.
So sending follow ups does push it to the top if there's something urgent or I missed a reply.
I do try and read all the comments though (esp. since I need to remove a lot of the fake account replies nowadays)
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@RealSimpleAriel This is the intention of most of the social network. Just a simple feature and they will NEVER ship. But you can use bot to kill bot: build a bot to follow all your posts and replies, detect and report scams. If you report, they triage and delete them.
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Hey @nikitabier do you see a problem here? @X @Support Are you guys planning on doing something about this or we just brushing it off?
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@TSDR_Trading Any backtest evidence? Looks like he should be more profitable than Q?
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Uncharted Territory Quote of the Day.
“Give a proper breakout trade 7 weeks before making major sell decisions. Selling a winner in week 3 because it pulled back to the 10-day has ended more profitable trades than any bear market.”
- Gil Morales
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@breakout_db Bought some $JCI when it poked its head up yesterday.
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@lukelwang Agreed they are a little slow, but the chart just looks sexy!
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$SOLS same cup-and-handle inside of another cup-and-handle pattern like $JCI.
Strong, strong, strong.
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@traderwillhu Chips are yelling to get higher but getting super extended. I rarely see this kind of straight up move...
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Apr 23 Daily Review: Keep Being Patient.
The broader market remains resilient, bolstered by a strong after-hours reaction to INTC’s earnings. SOXX has reached historically extended levels not seen in two decades, suggesting a significant gap-up is likely at the open. While new breakouts struggled to find meaningful follow-through today, I am monitoring for improved participation tomorrow. Notably, legacy leaders in the photonics space are showing relative weakness and appear to be losing momentum.
In other sectors, ETH has retraced recent gains while BTC maintains relative strength. Precious metals are rolling over, with gold and silver breaking below key moving averages, shifting my bias toward the short side. Conversely, oil is displaying relative strength following a wedge breakout and appears poised to test the $100 level.
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@RyanPierpont New company on the 101 billboards usually means it is time to check the ticker. $NBIS is the newest arrival. High chance it is heading to the moon. 🚀
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Will be keeping watch closely. Very similar base structure as SMCI when it broke out early 2024. “IF” (big IF) it follows the same playbook, SMCI rested roughly 1 week after the breakout before resuming so NBIS is around that mark here. Is today’s bar a scam before ripping higher or is it a sign of more rest? Dunno, we’ll find out soon 😆. When SMCI broke out, short interest was roughly 10% (~450m shares outstanding)… NBIS has 200m less shares outstanding (~250m) with double the short % at ~20%, so potential fuel. 🤷♂️ We’ll see
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