m3strategies

@AldReilly @BebopOtt Bebo is an insufferable troll.

@BebopOtt Enjoy your rent increase, sweetheart. Try spending a minute in the private sector, learn some math & then get back to me.

We’re going to do both - Game on kiddo

1. Attention to detail 2. A modern survey instrument 3. Reach “average” voters 4. Survey folks who haven’t voted yet and those who already did 5. Thoughtful analysis on projected turnout demographics 6. Careful weighting of all relevant demographics 7. Be bold enough to publish even if result is an outlier 8. Self skepticism — triple check the methods, math, bias, and hidden variables 9. Leverage technology 10. Do the work

How did we do it?

M3 is proud to have been the only firm to release a public survey on the Cook County Board President race in 2026. And despite deep skepticism from most politicos, who insisted the race was close, M3 correctly predicted a blowout victory for Preckwinkle. M3 Projection on 3/16 🔵 Toni Preckwinkle - 64.3% 🔵 Brendan Reilly - 34.9% Actual Results 🔵 Toni Preckwinkle - 68.5% 🔵 Brendan Reilly - 31.5%

@JakeFro19610091 @pmcguire5863 @FrankCalabrese What you are assuming is that results are released chronologically by folks who voted early. It doesn’t necessarily work that way.

@m3strat @pmcguire5863 @FrankCalabrese Yes and your poll did not match the results of people who voted early at all ergo it was wrong

New IL-09 poll from M3 Strategies, among voters who already cast ballots by mail or early in person: Kat Abughazaleh 29.5% Daniel Biss 26.2% Laura Fine 19.7% Phil Andrew 7.9% Mike Simmons 6.6% Bushra Amiwala 5.1% Crosstabs next thread

@JakeFro19610091 @pmcguire5863 @FrankCalabrese It was an exit poll. It was not a prediction of the race. It was just of people who voted early. You have no idea what you’re talking about.

@m3strat @pmcguire5863 @FrankCalabrese ? She was in third place to start out after the early vote was reported and narrowed the gap as Election Day vote was reported. As I said yesterday, your poll was just wrong

@pmcguire5863 @JakeFro19610091 @FrankCalabrese They sure did. She was up a bit before ED.

@JakeFro19610091 @m3strat @FrankCalabrese And looks like they let the Kat out of the bag too early 🐈🛍️

@MattBoxer94 It’s not trash. It’s text to web. The most reliable polling medium today.

Online only poll. This is trash but I could be wrong. It’s just a few more hours

@FrankCalabrese Tulchin Research did a poll on Cook County Board 9th District in 2022 (about 2-3 weeks before the election) showing Maggie Trevor beating Matt Podgorski by 24%. She ended up winning by 0.6%.

Healthcare for Action PAC, which supports Raja Krishnamoorthi, released a new Tulchin Research poll of Illinois Democratic primary early voters showing Raja leading: 🔵 Raja Krishnamoorthi 44% 🔵 Juliana Stratton 33% 🔵 Robin Kelly 16%

@CrunchyVideoMan @GMangioneX @FrankCalabrese That actually is the age breakdown of the district in Dem primaries.

@GMangioneX @FrankCalabrese @m3strat Brother 2/3s of the people polled for this are 46+

@JakeFro19610091 @FrankCalabrese You’re so extraordinarily lazy that you can’t do a simple Google search on our company name. We are very good.

@FrankCalabrese Or the poll is just wrong lol. Literally never heard of M3 strategies before and that demographic of voter is who you'd expect Biss and Fine to do better with not Kat

@IDk54510482 @sieckmannsam15 @FrankCalabrese Not our polling sir. Spot on.

@m3strat @sieckmannsam15 @FrankCalabrese 550 for house race isn’t that much plus a lot people refuse to answer a poll it’s why polling has been bad for years

@IDk54510482 @sieckmannsam15 @FrankCalabrese Do a quick Google search on political polling sample sizes before you make comments. 550 is plenty as long as you have a representative sample.

@m3strat @sieckmannsam15 @FrankCalabrese It’s only 550 that’s not big small and will be overblown

@IDk54510482 @sieckmannsam15 @FrankCalabrese

@IDk54510482 @sieckmannsam15 @FrankCalabrese If you actually look at the spreadsheet, it shows you the age distribution of all the respondents. It is not all 18 to 36-year-olds. It is perfectly balanced to the projected overall turnout.

@IDk54510482 @sieckmannsam15 @FrankCalabrese You are incorrect sir.

@sieckmannsam15 @FrankCalabrese @m3strat It’s 500 people the sample size is too small

@NotTheILGovenor @DHSgov @RepMikeQuigley The 5th district is 💯 safe for Democrats. And the D primary voters (the real electorate in the 5th) are 90-10 against ICE.

@DHSgov @m3strat @RepMikeQuigley many of your constituents are old school Democrats and support law enforcement. You may be on the wrong side of the illegal immigration issue - as your voters see it.

Congressman, you are deliberately misrepresenting the facts. ICE law enforcement did NOT target a daycare and were only at this location because the female illegal alien fled inside. Here is the real story: Officers attempted to conduct a targeted traffic stop of this female illegal alien from Colombia. Officers attempted to pull over this vehicle, which was registered to a female illegal alien, with sirens and emergency lights, but the male driver refused to pull the vehicle over. Law enforcement pursued the vehicle before the assailant sped into a shopping plaza where he and the female passenger fled the vehicle. They ran into a daycare and attempted to barricade themselves inside the daycare—recklessly endangering the children inside. The illegal alien female was arrested inside a vestibule, not in the school. Upon arrest, she lied about her identity. The vehicle is registered to in her name, though she claims that she didn’t know the man who was driving her car and just picked him up from a bus stop.  Facts including criminality and information on the male assailant are forthcoming and we will update the public with more information as soon as it becomes available.

Not everyone in Chicago sees ICE in a negative light. chicagomag.com/news/we-see-th…

@repdeliaramirez Wrong. She fled agents and ran into that facility. She is at fault.

Just so we are clear: ICE went into a day care center—a private business—without a judicial warrant, and unlawfully kidnapped a worker in front of parents and children. Our taxpayer dollars are being used to violate our rights, terrorize our communities, and traumatize children. It is time to defund ICE.