Life & Capital

The vision is a collection of hard, irreplaceable assets as the foundation, with niche services businesses layered on top that are NOT meant to scale. The paradox is it leverages something uniquely human (service and trust) and recycles the capital into something irreplaceable (land, water, bitcoin). Also, like building new things is fun.

It's Not About You open.substack.com/pub/lifeandcap…

I enjoyed this substack.com/home/post/p-81…

@HeadedNine Tried to outline some of it here. First time doing a video so it's a bit clunky. youtube.com/watch?v=SySbNj…

This chart is a monster. Compute needs more than power, cables, and chips. It needs water. $WBI

@HunterAllen4 Agree- I tried to outline what I like here: youtube.com/watch?v=SySbNj…

$WBI This is a hidden gem. Not many see the potential at all on x. I DO. I ran a little screener comparing $FPS analysis and growth metrics. $CRDO $MU $CELH popped up. This doesn’t end here. Permian gas abundance + AI power demand are creating an entirely new infrastructure buildout. $BE $FCEL $BESS $NEOV $TE $SHLS $FSLR $FLNC WaterBridge Infrastructure isn’t an AI company. It’s the largest independent pure-play produced water midstream operator in the Delaware Basin. As AI campuses, behind-the-meter power plants, and industrial infrastructure expand across the Permian, water is quietly becoming one of the biggest bottlenecks. $WBI already owns one of the largest water infrastructure networks positioned to benefit. • ~2,500+ miles of pipeline • 200+ produced water facilities • >4.7M barrels/day handling capacity • Currently processing ~2.5–2.9M barrels/day • 99.7% average uptime • Long-term fixed-fee, volume- and acreage-based contracts with acreage dedications, AMI positions and minimum volume commitments • CPI-linked pricing escalators • Real-time monitoring platform with excess capacity already built for future organic growth Its core business today remains produced water gathering, transportation, recycling, brackish water sourcing and disposal for major Permian producers including names like $CVX, $XOM, $DVN, BPX, $EOG and $PR. That alone is a critical niche. Produced water handling isn’t optional. Permian operators often produce 3+ barrels of water for every barrel of oil, making reliable water infrastructure just as critical as pipelines in keeping production online. Produced water volumes have compounded roughly 21% annually over the last decade—significantly faster than oil production itself—as rising water-to-oil ratios make water handling increasingly essential infrastructure. Financials continue improving. • Q1 2026 revenue ~$201M • Returned to profitability • Adjusted EBITDA ~$103M • ~51% EBITDA margins • Raised full-year volume and EBITDA guidance • 2026 EBITDA guidance: $425–465M • 2026 volumes expected at 2.525–2.725M barrels/day • Speedway Pipeline expansion and Devon MVC provide additional contracted growth • Inaugural dividend launched as cash flow continues strengthening The long-term thesis gets even more interesting. Management has openly discussed expanding beyond traditional oil & gas into: • AI data centers • Electric power generation • Combined-cycle natural gas plants • Industrial water reuse • Crypto mining • Municipal and agricultural markets And it’s supported by one of the strongest ecosystems in the basin. $LB (LandBridge), $WBI and Five Point Infrastructure create a unique combination of: • Land • Pore space • Water pipelines • Disposal infrastructure • Brackish water • Power development PowerBridge is already pursuing multi-gigawatt powered data center campuses in West Texas. Meanwhile Chevron’s Project Kilby with Microsoft highlights exactly where the basin is heading: The broader ecosystem continues expanding with companies like $VST adding Permian gas generation, $XOM exploring gas-to-power opportunities, $TLN and $CEG benefiting from rising hyperscale power demand, and long-term SMR potential represented by $SMR as reliable baseload generation becomes increasingly important. Those projects require enormous amounts of reliable industrial water, and produced water reuse is increasingly being explored as one of the most scalable solutions in water-constrained West Texas. Large AI campuses can consume 1–5 million gallons of water per day for cooling. @MartEnterprises That’s where WBI could become increasingly valuable. Fuel cell names like $BE and $FCEL… Solar suppliers like $FSLR, $TE and $SHLS… Storage names like $FLNC… All benefit from the same structural trend: Power demand is exploding. Water demand follows. Still primarily a fee-based oil & gas infrastructure company. But definitely one worth watching.

Tried a new format to walk through how I look at some of these businesses. Sort of clunky but looking to get better at doing them. $WBI youtube.com/watch?v=SySbNj…

Building new things is fun. Owning irreplaceable things is peaceful. The goal is a structure that permits both at once, indefinitely, without ever requiring the frantic middle, and having a life you enjoy during, not after it’s all done and sold.

@BryanGreenbaum agree. it is crazy

Honestly $MIAX might be the best opportunity I've ever seen.

Not everything is meant to scale. lifeandcapital.substack.com/p/meant-to-not…

@BryanGreenbaum Absolutely. Owe mostly everything to those guys.

@macrosat Very horizon kinetics coded, I like it.

The vision is a collection of hard, irreplaceable assets as the foundation, with niche services businesses layered on top that are NOT meant to scale. The paradox is it leverages something uniquely human (service and trust) and recycles the capital into something irreplaceable (land, water, bitcoin). Also, like building new things is fun.

Go slower.

@QualityCap0 @310Value Eventually the cash produced will be awesome. anything under $30 is great

@macrosat @310Value Completely agree, ROIC on capacity expansion is very good. Best case scenario is that they don’t return cash and still have the opportunity to increase capacity at those IRRs in 4-5 years.

Is there a reason why $LB wouldn't grow, at least, as fast as $WBI on the produced water business only?

Nice. I tend to agree with the EBITDA estimates in 2030. Once the growth capex is done with at $WBI, i think your yield on cost will be unbelievably attractive. Of course they can buy back shares, add some tuck-ins or return cash. . either way i feel like the downside is protected a bit during this capex phase and better priced.

That is what I'm trying to figure out - $LB vs $WBI. I can see $WBI with 1bn$ worth of EBTIDA in 2030 with leverage cut at least in half and ample room for buyback in later years (once growth CAPEX is done with). With no expansion of multiple, $WBI looks very attractive, specially since the sell-side numbers looks too low. IMO $LB seems less mispriced by the market today, unless you give credit for all the optionality for data center, etc. I own $WBI in size right now, but I'm close to either adding to it or just buying $LB.

@310Value @QualityCap0 I own both- I like WBI at these prices as once they are done with their Capex spend, you basically get all that cash to the bottom line (with some maintenance capex). LB higher position for me now but adding to WBI.

Probably faster. It probably picks up most of the major growth at $wbi, as most of the $wbi growth should flow to $lb. $wbi probably growing 1mbpd per year over next five. All that goes to $lb. $lb gets same growth on a smaller initial base. Not too mention royalty rates going up as finite pore spaced is used up.

@ragingbullcap 🤣

@macrosat Increasingly scarce assets

Never been a more enabling period in history to just do things, and I'm not just talking about launching a fund. Biggest hurdle is just having the balls to go for it. Doesn't mean you'll succeed but the digital world has has drastically reduced the frictions and entry barriers of blazing your own trail.

@EscapeVlcty Yes DM! It's always traded like this. Combo of bitcoin bear market. You're not missing anything. If they liquidated the company tomorrow you get $40/share

@macrosat Hey - can I DM on $CMSG. Long time follower of all things HKHC. Been staring at this one for a bit here. Wondering what I’m missing. It’s almost 50% upside to liquidation that can be done in 5 minutes. Thx. Does the market just not trust management post Murray?

Very little information out there on $CMSG, so I tried to put my thoughts down. @lifeandcapital/note/p-196091069?r=6soi9v&utm_source=notes-share-action&utm_medium=web" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@lifeandcapita…

@EscapeVlcty @FishingCatCap I'll take that

@macrosat @FishingCatCap The should be running it with much less cash though. Div out $40mm and keep the remainder to run the crypto biz

Took a small position in $CMSG as a “leveraged” play on crypto recovery. $CMSG is a crypto mining company with market cap fully covered by net cash (excl. crypto assets) so downside is protected. A move to 1x book value alone would be a ~40% return.

@PodcastAlphaX $HHH @BillAckman

"The world needs another private equity fund like a hole in the head." That is the founder of private equity talking. Henry Kravis, at Columbia Business School, on why he would never start a PE fund today. China alone has more than 5,000 PE funds. The model he invented is now saturated. His alternative: the Berkshire route. Buy one company, install a great CEO, compound forever, keep 100% of profits instead of 20% carry. When the man who built the model says it is second-best, LP capital concentrates at the survivors. Why this is bullish for the mega-managers: podcastalpha.substack.com/p/cbs-kravis-k… Source: Columbia Business School - youtube.com/watch?v=SQEWoU…