Mari
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📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $SPCX Spacex In Talks To Provide Pentagon Billions Of Dollars Of Ai Cloud-computing Capacity, Sources Say - WSJ

I am continuing to accumulate $ASTS and $CRWV with their recent pullback. I want to begin with $CRWV. The more I study $CRWV, the more I think the entire investment case comes down to one thing and that is execution. Demand isn’t the problem. $CRWV now has roughly $99B in remaining performance obligations (backlog), giving it one of the largest contracted AI infrastructure revenue pipelines in the industry. Revenue is expected to grow from roughly $2B in 2025 to well over $10B annually within the next few years if management executes on existing customer demand. But here’s why the stock remains controversial. The balance sheet is aggressive. Tens of billions of dollars in debt and financing obligations. Billions more in planned AI infrastructure CapEx. Significant interest expense while the company is still scaling. The market isn’t questioning whether AI demand exists. It’s questioning whether $CRWV can build enough GPU capacity, deliver projects on time, and convert that $99B backlog into recognized revenue while improving profitability. These are the numbers I’ll be watching next earnings: - Backlog growth and how much converts into revenue. - Quarterly CapEx and whether spending is becoming more efficient. - Operating cash flow and free cash flow trends. - Gross margin and EBITDA margin progression as utilization increases. - Debt levels, interest expense, and any refinancing updates. Available liquidity and cash on the balance sheet. If utilization continues improving, each new data center should generate significantly more cash flow over time while fixed costs are spread across a larger revenue base. That’s why I’m less focused on today’s balance sheet and more focused on whether management is executing against the numbers. If they are, today’s leverage could look far less intimidating.

Keep in mind that the below tweet was from January 2023, when $ASTS was $5. I held my full position all the way down (bought more) to sub $2 - up to $130 - and back down to today. Don't play this game with money you need soon



























