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据中信证券测算，跨境展业整治落地后，富途旗下受影响存量资产规模约1500-1800亿港元，老虎证券约450-500亿港元。考虑其他受影响券商，全市场受影响规模预计2000-2500亿港元，但这一口径并非港股持仓规模，更不能简单等同于港股卖盘。 富途控股和老虎证券的罚款规模分别为18.5亿元人民币以及4.112亿元人民币，约占两公司2025年收入的10.65%和11.23%，占两公司2025年利润的18.75%和35.38%。 中信证券认为客户资产基础较强、跨境产品储备充分、投顾与数字化能力领先的头部券商及财富管理平台有望受益。

@kyith Good stuff!

I think the difference for $TIGR compared to $FUTU is that they may have broken down how they might be affected long term revenue wise more clearly. 10% of assets. 🧵

@IcqqkaeyD @MaiusPartners Why would HK be lost over time?

@MaiusPartners It's an open question. The disciplined investor obviously presumes all HK AUM will be lost over time. That appears to leave investors with a Singaporean and Oceanian broker worth quite a lot more than 800musd.

$TIGR giving off very scary vibes if for a remote second management believes CSRC rules are not applicable in Hong Kong.🤯

Cannot agree more! And a 57M fine is nothing given how strong the balance sheet is, if China applied the law purely it could have been 500M-1B easily since it's a multiple on gross profit of all historical revenues from China. But I'd also assume the same loud and uninformed herd to lead to some withdrawals, since the headline sounds concerning despite no impact on the business.

Inte haft tid att göra min egen analys helt, men detta är min finger i luften uppfattning som gemeni råkar hålla med om.

Älskar att alla pratar om kina-risken i $TIGR lagom till den gick ner med >50%. 2022 fick de sluta acceptera nya kunder från mainland, nu ska resten bort till 2028. 10% av kunderna kommer vara borta om 2 år. Böter var typ 1-1,5 kvartalsvinst. Kurs ner 37% som värst på det..

@MaiusPartners @nicolas_a4 Double down!

Not involved in the stock, but at this point given the movement, you either double down or cut your loss depending on conviction. Pretty easy thought experiment to test one’s conviction: “Would you move your account to TIGR tomorrow knowing everything you know today”, and you have the answer on what the next trade is.

@alexeliasson I couldn't believe when I saw it, 300MM is a steal given how harsh the law is stipulated

Futu $FUTU got slapped with a fine equal to 20% of its annual net profits today. On top of that, its mainland client base will be wound down over the next two years. ​I *might* be a buyer again at some point. I'll let all the details play out first.

Yeah also see it that way, but before 2022 $TIGR was a fully PRC company breaking a local law and with active marketing efforts - I'd assume the court will target all revenues arising from these customers. Post 2022, there's been evidence that PRC nationals forged documents / didn't have the right substance abroad, but I feel this is harder for courts to prove the wrongdoing of TIGR :/

@marcotomasrodr @Zac_Pundi @Mystezi @NStepmum @GlobalStockPick @grok Right, but if a Mainland Chinese opens a brokerage account overseas, it’s not exactly their fault is it? Marketing on the mainland is another matter obviously

@Zac_Pundi @Mystezi @NStepmum @GlobalStockPick @grok Why can't TIGR / FUTU completely extricate themselves from Mainland China? Their business can be completely overseas. What leverage does the PRC gov have?

@MikeFritzell @Zac_Pundi @Mystezi @NStepmum @GlobalStockPick @grok Also this thread brings some interesting perspectives: x.com/punk2898/statu…

As of today, only 15% of assets are from Mainland Chinese, but the main issue here is the historical revenue. Before the 2022 crackdown and expansion to foreign markets, the majority of the revenue came from mainland Chinese who evaded the SAFE restrictions to acquire foreign assets (grey area at the time). On 2022, they complied with the regulation for new account openings but kept servicing the existent customer base, as that was apparently permitted at the time. PRC law stipulates penalties that can reach 5-10x the gross revenue arising from these "illegal" activities (with previous cases usually falling at around 3x), even though TIGR is essentially a net-net as of today's price, this fine can reach or exceed the current cash and market cap, depending on the multiple they choose and what revenues they deem as illegal.

@MacroJason @imidaily Good points! Have you explored the Bulgarian market? Seems under-levered while rates are at ~3%. I see lots of potential in cities like Varna, Plovdiv or Bansko despite the poor investment on infrastructure. Stable policies, lowest tax in EU, conservative/libertarian mindset.

Took a look - nice work! Some thoughts: 1. A lot of DM (developed market) investors fall into the trap of viewing real estate as one single asset class. They treat what they read about real estate in Western media / youtube as applicable to EMs. But there isn't a single real estate market - there are hundreds of real estate markets globally. 2. Related to above, many DM investors are obsessed with mortgages. They pass on solid EMs for the simple reason that mortgages are not offered. Failing to appreciate the benefits of owning in less leveraged markets 👉 grok.com/share/c2hhcmQt… Many of those cash markets have outperformed leveraged up markets over the past few years. A fun illustration is that you would have been better off buying in 2021 in pre-war Kiev than many Western European markets like London. Leverage can also be obtained in ways alternative to mortgages, e.g. by buying off-plan in cash markets 👉 x.com/MacroJason/sta… 3. It's incredibly hard to have an holistic view of global real estate markets across continents, as there are so many constantly moving parts (evolving local dynamics). Look forward to seeing FLIIP City Index develop - IMO the guys at @GlobalPropGuide also do a solid job 🫡

Most property investors don't buy where the best opportunity is. They invest where their attention happens to be. Where they live. Where they have family. Where they speak the language. Where a broker is currently pitching them. That is understandable, but it is also severely limiting. If you could buy property in any city in the world, how would you know where to start? For all you know, the best long-term opportunity might not be Lisbon, Dubai, Miami, Madrid, or London. It might be some city you have barely thought about. A city with low prices, decent yields, improving demographics, strong property rights, favorable tax treatment, manageable supply, good connectivity, and a currency that is not quietly murdering your returns. So I have started building something I wish had existed when I started building my global real estate portfolio: A data-based index of real estate markets in cities around the world, from the perspective of foreign investors. I call it the Fundamentals for Long-term International Investment Property City Index. Or, simply: The FLIIP City Index. The goal is simple: To rank cities around the world Not based on vibes. Not based on which markets are fashionable. Not based on where your cousin bought in 2017. But based on cold, comparable, measurable fundamentals. The current version looks at 41 metrics across seven categories: 1. Real estate fundamentals 2. Costs and taxes 3. Demand 4. Access 5. Governance 6. Macro conditions 7. Resilience This is still a work in progress, and I want smart people to tear it apart so I can fix it. Especially friends who have a lot of experience buying property across borders, like @MacroJason, @wander_investor, @TimurNegru, and @jeremysavory. Try it out via the link in the first comment. What am I missing? Which scores seem off? Which metrics are unnecessary? Which ones are double-counting the same underlying thing? Once we nail the methodology, I’ll add more cities, so tell me which cities you’d most like me to add.

It's interesting to see not only how detached the valuation is from the fundamentals, but also from the perception of the geopolitical environment. At the time it was oversold due to the tariffs / delisting risk(?), now the US-China relationships seem better than even before Trump took office, but it seems that now nobody cares much.

UP Fintech $TIGR dipped below $6 today. To me, this is the most mispriced stock in my investable universe right now and I cover it in a wide range of different write-ups. Stock price is completely detached from fundamentals in my view, and while I do not know when the two will converge again, they will eventually.

@ReneSellmann Loading up again! hahah

@ResGloStocks @MomentumFinanc3 @xiep1987 Interesante pitch! Tendrías el link actualizado para Tianli? Muchas gracias de antemano!

One of the repercussions brought by the China Nonferrous video in @MomentumFinanc3 was the contact with the Twitter user @xiep1987 He told us about his investment in Tianli Education $1773.hk We initiated thread and coverage, but this time, with a PDF. drive.google.com/file/d/17DukTV…

@ReneSellmann 2/2 $MEGP x.com/marcotomasrodr…

Let’s generate ideas to research further! Pitch your favorite investment idea (in 3 sentences or less) 👇🏻

$MEGP operates vending machines in Europe, it has 2 segments: 50% Photo.ME (somewhat legacy segment, mainly passport pictures, stable), 50%-ish Wash.ME (laundromats, very strong growth +17% this year). It's a wonderful business, with the moat being the site contracts and field service network, upwards 32% ROIC, 6% dividend yield, 3% repurchases for 2026. Listed since 1962. Family owner-operators (36.5%). EV/EBI 8. Discount reasons: 1) Germany changed the regulation for passport pictures requiring in-office / certified pictures 2) The company considered going private but didn't get a good offer 3) A major shareholder did a private placement at a bit of a discount 4) The auditor once got delayed for reasons external to the company, but the stock got halted for a few weeks.

@ReneSellmann Thank you! Just FYI, everything I buy ends up going down even more so please be careful with my pitches haha Will add another for $MEGP, I also really like $KSPI and $HSBK but I know so far you didn't like EM so much.

@marcotomasrodr Interesting pitch!

Boring company, until it wasn't 😅