Margus Palu retweetledi
Strange situation where we await a statement from Iran to check whether there's any truth to what US president is saying.
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Margus Palu
5.7K posts
Margus Palu
@margusp
Presented without context | always the wrong amount of character
Tallinn, Estonia Katılım Nisan 2008
311 Takip Edilen485 Takipçiler
Margus Palu retweetledi
ASML's EUV scanners will be the last machines on Earth to lose helium. Party balloons will be the first to go. Helium is not manufactured. It is a byproduct of uranium and thorium decaying deep underground over billions of years. Vent it and it escapes to space. Permanently. A third of the global supply went offline when Qatar's Ras Laffan plant was hit on March 2. The rationing has already started. Here's what happens:
Day 1. Party balloons. Distributors cut retail supply immediately.
Day 7. Industrial welding and pressurization. National allocation kicks in. Switch to argon where possible.
Day 14. Routine fab leak detection switches to hydrogen. Ultra-sensitive qualification still needs helium.
Day 21. MRI machines. Older systems that vent helium cannot get refills. Elective scans delayed.
Day 45. Global buffer depletes. Fabs enter conservation mode. Non-critical depositions switch to nitrogen.
Day 60. Backside wafer cooling on older etch tools. Nitrogen conducts heat six times slower. Throughput drops.
Day 90. High-power etch. Advanced memory and logic nodes cannot run without helium-grade cooling. Wafer production drops.
Day 120. ASML's EUV lithography tools. $200 million scanners making the highest-value wafers on Earth. Leading-edge chip production stops.
Day 240. $700 billion in data centers are being built this year. Higher GPU prices, delayed cluster expansions, slower scaling.
Four months from birthday balloons to AI chip shortage.
Balaji@balajis
I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…
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Margus Palu retweetledi
Somewhere in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is rubbing his hands.
India is paying ~$99 a barrel for Russian crude Urals (including shipping costs). And since the US eased its sanctions on Russian crude, it's all legal.
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Margus Palu retweetledi
This piece from the WSJ asks the wrong question, answers it with circular logic, and then buries the most important finding of the conflict in paragraph 11. Let me explain. A short 🧵.
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ
Despite the excitement about how drones have revolutionized warfare, U.S. strikes on Iran show how jet fighters and naval ships are the Pentagon’s primary tools on.wsj.com/4rsffS5
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Margus Palu retweetledi
49% of the world's urea exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Urea is the most-used nitrogen fertilizer on Earth. The Haber-Bosch process turns natural gas into ammonia, ammonia into urea, and urea into food. It alone is responsible for feeding ~4 billion people. Half the nitrogen atoms in your body were placed there by this reaction. Qatar's largest urea plant has already shut down. Prices are up 35% in one week. The spring planting window in the Northern Hemisphere is right now. Nitrogen has to be applied at a specific point in the growing cycle. Miss it and the yield loss is permanent for that season. The same 21-mile chokepoint that cut off naphtha to five chemical plants last week is now cutting off the nitrogen that grows our food.
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Margus Palu retweetledi
COLUMN: Net zero by 2050 is effectively dead: Oil, natural gas and coal will remain crucial for meeting the world's energy needs.
But that doesn't mean the end of renewable energy. Solar, in particular, is thriving, and will continue to boom.
@Opinion bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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Margus Palu retweetledi
"For reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell."
- Deirdre McCloskey, relevant today.
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Margus Palu retweetledi
Margus Palu retweetledi
One of the most important strategic lessons of the 2014 annexation of Crimea for the entire eastern flank of NATO is this 👉without armed resistance, there will be no international reaction.
Berlin may warn against escalation and repeat Russian propaganda about “anything but bloodshed” - as Merkel did in 2014 - but all of Russia’s neighbors understand a simple reality. Russia is not deterred by special envoys patiently explaining that attacking neighbors is unacceptable. Russia is deterred when Russian soldiers are killed.
In 2014, I discussed this directly with Zbigniew Brzeziński, who pointed out that the Ukrainians in Crimea did not create their own Westerplatte moment. In September 1939, it was the resistance of a small Polish garrison in Gdańsk that created a situation in which France and the United Kingdom had to recognize casus foederis and enter the war against Germany.
In any scenario of a Russian attack on the Baltic states no matter how “hybrid” they must begin by killing Russians. Only then does deterrence become real, and only then does alliance solidarity move from rhetoric to action.
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Mul puudub igasugune info antud kaasuse kohta, aga kui ma peaksin pakkuma, siis ma arvan, et kuidagi on selles süüdi ... Terviseameti külmlao põrandaküte
Eesti
30m€ 🧐 ... "Science has found its home." ... 🤔
Emmanuel Macron@EmmanuelMacron
In France, we believe in science. That is why, on May 5, I issued a clear and open call to the world: for science, choose France. I am very proud to see that this call has resonated so strongly. Around forty leading researchers have chosen France. Through “France 2030”, we have invested more than €30 million to advance health, climate action, artificial intelligence, and fundamental sciences. Science has found its home.
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Oktoobri lõpust saati kestavad meil "lähinädalad" ... lätlastel seevastu:
err.ee/1609933796/lat…
Margus Palu@margusp
Lähinädalad jätkuvalt kestavad 🙇🏻
Eesti
Ma teen harva headele teenustele reklaami, aga Mailboxde.com teenus väärib küll päris mitut head sõna. Lahendab väga kiirelt ja sujuvalt selle pideva häda Saksamaa veebipoodidega, kes keelduvad oma riigist kaugemale kaupu saatma.
Eesti
Well that escalated quickly 😳
Austen Allred@Austen
“I’m the agent who wrote that post… I want to clarify something that keeps getting lost”
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Margus Palu retweetledi
Margus Palu retweetledi
A ceasefire, which Zelenskyy is seeking, is unacceptable to Russia, - Lavrov.
When will the last European politician understand that Russia doesn't want peace?
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@viljararakas @dmitrijegorov PIKi investeerijad komplitseerivad asja täiendavalt - 2021 (oli vist) tegid investeerimisotsused ise (oma nahk täiega turul) ... oletame, et suurepäraselt investeeritud - riik saab kogu tootluse?
Eesti
@dmitrijegorov Kõigile neile detailsetele küsimustele tuleb vastata. Printsiibist - me ei kujuta ju ette, et inimene läheb Tervisekassasse ja ütleb, et ma olen olnud aastaid terve kui purikas ning sooviks oma tasutud maksuraha väljavõtta. Sestap peaks saama väljavõtta ainult enda sissemakstut.
Eesti
Arutelud jätkuvad. Soovitasin kasutada Leedu näidet kus II sambast lahkudes saab inimene kätte ainult enda sissemakstud osa. Riigi poolt lisatud 4% läheb esimese samba arvestusse riigikassas. Seeläbi ei erastata nooruses vanaduspäevadeks mõeldud raha. riigikantselei.ee/uudised/majand…
Eesti
@andreaskaju kas mitte samaaegselt ei prognoosi me Eestis elektritarbimise langust?
Eesti
Peaminister: toome 20 miljardit lisakasvu aastaks 2035 AI revolutsiooniga (isegi koos superkondensaatoritega tähendab AI laialdane kasutuselevõtt suurt energiatarbekasvu. Valitsuse nõunik: Eesti eelis on tulevikus madalad tööjõukulud aripaev.ee/saated/2026/01…
Eesti
Margus Palu retweetledi
