Maria

Micron is one of the most UNDERVALUED stocks in the entire AI trade right now and everyone should be buying at these prices. (Save this). Jensen laid out the situation in one sentence, the supply chain is lined up, the HBM is lined up with the Grace Blackwell GPUs, the only problem is that demand is much greater than the overall capacity of the world. And Michael Dell said it before Jensen even finished that memory is the single biggest supply constraint in the entire AI buildout right now. Every HBM chip that Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung produce consumes three times the silicon wafer area of standard DRAM. Nvidia's Rubin GPU requires 288GB of HBM per chip, a 260% increase over the H100 in just two generations. Every major hyperscaler has locked up contracts through 2026, and Micron has said publicly it can only fulfill about two-thirds of medium-term demand for some customers. And it's HBM production is sold out entirely for 2026 and HBM4 is also already sold out. The numbers tell the story, DDR4 spot prices surged roughly 15x in eight months. DRAM contract prices rose 90-95% in a single quarter, TrendForce called it "essentially unprecedented" in the history of the memory market. Micron has rallied roughly 68% year to date in 2026, and yet it still trades at a P/E of 37.6x against an industry average of 75.3x. The shortage does not resolve until new fabs come online, Micron's new factories are not producing until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest, and the memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call and our Pro members are already up massively in $MU. Come join us at the link in bio/below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.

@grok Most traders look at the $VIX level... But the REAL signal is often the RELATIONSHIP between $VIX9D and $VIX. 👀 Right now: 🔹 VIX9D = 16.37 🥶🥶 🔹 VIX = 18.43 🌞 ☀️ ⛅️ What does that mean? The options market is pricing the NEXT 9 DAYS as CALMER than the NEXT 30 DAYS. That is NOT backwardation. That is a NORMAL / CONTANGO volatility structure. Translation: ✅ No immediate panic bid ✅ Traders not aggressively hedging THIS WEEK ✅ Near-term volatility expectations are contained ✅ Market sees more uncertainty later in the month vs immediately now If fear was truly front-loaded, you’d likely see: 🚨 VIX9D > VIX Example: VIX9D = 25 VIX = 20 THAT is backwardation: 🔻 Front-end stress 🔻 Immediate hedging demand 🔻 “Something may break soon” pricing Think of it like weather forecasts: ☀️ VIX9D = next week's weather ⛈️ VIX = next month's weather Sunny next week but possible storms later in the month = perfectly normal curve structure. The SHAPE of the volatility curve often tells you more than the $VIX number itself. $SPY $SPX $QQQ

This GAIN WINDOW Speaks for itself..... $SPY $SPX $QQQ $SMH $AMD $NVDA $AVGO $AAPL $MU $DRAM You see a DIP that is NOT WW3, I would be buying into JULY 31st EARNINGS RAMP. "THE GAIN WINDOW" Trump's Birthday, FIFA WORLD CUP, AMERICA 250th, Earnings RAMP.... Earnings Gains have been strong with stock buybacks, passive inflows, $700B in Capex Spend Confirmed. Just my $0.02...... NFA @Micro2Macr0 @Norseman1 @RealtorStarShar @blondebroker1 @StockPatternPro @FundstratDirect @DivesTech @RyanDetrick

QQQ @FractalExchange #QQQ $QQQ

Week ahead is out: yamtrades.substack.com/p/positioning-… Market data from @ConvexValue Net positioning from @OptionsDepth If the weekly posts, daily commentary, or flow shows are of any use, please like/repost. Flow shows with @tony_mansour and @iV_trader #PMFS on M/W/F at 915am #MDFS on T/Th at 1245pm Areas weakness might drive us to - we're in a full bull market into the summer. Have a good weekend and be back Monday morning with a note and #PMFS.

HAVE WE TOPPED??? $SPY $SPX $QQQ $SMH As a swing trader or LEAP holder, this is the question I believe you need to ask yourself every single day once the market shifts into a full bull structure. In a bear market, the daily question is: Have we bottomed? Bear structure = EMA 8/21 flipped negative + 50 SMA below 100/200 SMA. That is where a Crash LEAP Entry Dashboard helps remove emotion and create a data-based entry framework. But in a Bull market, the question flips: Have we Topped? Bull structure = EMA 8/21 flipped positive + 50 > 100 > 200 SMA. That is the Full Bull Stack. The goal is not to trade off Emotion! The goal is to ask the same question repeatedly and let data, structure, sentiment, liquidity, and catalysts guide the answer. Right now, the AAII Sentiment Survey shows: Bullish: 39% Neutral: 24.1% Bearish: 36.6% Historically, when AAII Bulls push above 50%, topping risk becomes much louder. For my framework, I do not need to wait for 50%. I am watching the 45–46% bullish zone as the first major warning area where confidence can start moving toward euphoria. So the real question becomes: How do we move from 39% bulls to 45–50% bulls? That is what my new Have We Topped Dashboard is designed to track. The catalyst bridge I am watching: Iran / Strait of Hormuz risk resolves If geopolitical risk cools and Hormuz stays open, that could pull bears into the bullish camp. $NVDA earnings deliver on May 20 If Nvidia confirms the AI capex cycle, that can reinforce the “AI growth is still accelerating” narrative. CPI / PPI cools Cooler inflation can improve rate-cut odds and help broaden the rally into rate-sensitive sectors. Breadth improves Homebuilders, banks, small caps, industrials, and lagging sectors need to participate. Liquidity remains supportive Buybacks, passive 401k inflows, TGA drawdown, and easier financial conditions can keep the chase alive. My base math: AAII Bulls at 39% Potential sentiment adds: +4% from geopolitical relief +1–2% from $NVDA earnings delivery +2% from cooler inflation / better rate-cut odds That creates a possible path toward 45–47% bulls into the June CPI/PPI and OpEx window. That is not automatically bearish. But it tells me the market could be moving closer to the zone where I stop asking: “How high can this go?” And start asking: “Are we entering euphoria?” Professional money managers and market makers are always rotating, chasing, hedging, and trying to outrun the next guy. They love to pivot around: May OpEx (May 15th) June OpEx (June 18th) July OpEx (July 17th) End of quarter (June 30th) Major earnings (JULY 31st Major macro data (FOMC JUNE 17th) NEW Chair We saw something similar in 2024. Tech formed a June/July double top. July OpEx helped mark the top in $NVDA and broader tech before the August Yen Carry unwind. The market dropped hard until corporate buybacks stepped in during early August. That is why I am not just watching price. I am watching: AAII Sentiment EMA 8/21 structure 50/100/200 Full Bull Stack OpEx timing Earnings growth AI capex Rate-cut odds Breadth expansion Buyback windows Passive inflows Liquidity conditions Dealer positioning The bull case still has fuel. But the higher sentiment climbs, the more disciplined I become. Because the biggest mistake traders make in a bull market is thinking strength alone means there is no risk. The dashboard is simple: Have We Topped? Not based on feelings. Based on data. Every single day. $SPY $QQQ $NVDA $SPX TL;DR: The market is still in a bullish structure, but AAII Bulls at 39% could move toward the 45–50% euphoria zone if geopolitical risk cools, $NVDA delivers, and inflation improves. That is why I am building the Have We Topped Dashboard: data over emotion, every single day. Version 1 of the Dashboard! If you have info I should add to it, let me know!

@astocks92 @Yam_Trades MOAR $VLN 5 CALL 06/18 123K

$VLN 11/20 $5C with @Yam_Trades NFA.

$NBIS earnings were stellar and it’s now trading $200+ premarket. Reiterated $7-9B ARR in 2026. 40% adj. EBITDA margin projections, which is vastly outperforming expectations. 4 GW contracted capacity. $6.3B capital secured by $NVDA off solid financial offering structures. Glad my high conviction Neocloud pick is performing wonders and happy management is executing so well. In the words of Jensen: “Nebius will take care of you”

Good morning, say it with me "I am a risk manager first and a trader second. My job is not to be right. My job is to manage my exposure, follow my rules, and let the probabilities play out over time. The edge works if I let it."

Goldman Sachs report confirmed what retail has been chasing since the beginning of the year. CPO TAM: $169M today -> $91B by 2028. A lot has been priced in but we are still not at the midpoint before the inflection. The curve gets steep from here. Photonics and CPO sit at 40% of my portfolio. Heading to 50% before I’m done setting up. Every name Goldman Sachs put inside the Nvidia and Broadcom CPO stack: US 🇺🇸 $NVDA – CPO switch architect, Quantum-X and Spectrum-X, mass production early 2026 $AVGO – Bailly/Davisson 102.4T CPO switch delivered Oct 2025, production 2026 $LITE – laser sources and CW laser inside Nvidia’s stack $COHR – laser sources and CW laser inside Nvidia’s stack $GLW – fiber supplier inside Nvidia’s stack $FN – system-level assembly Taiwan 🇹🇼 TSMC (2330.TW) – CPO chip fabrication for both Nvidia and Broadcom SPIL (3711.TW) – CPO chip test FOCI (3363.TWO) – FAU supplier Browave (3163.TWO) – optical engine and shuffle box VPEC (2455.TW) – laser sources and CW laser Landmark (3081.TWO) – laser sources and CW laser Nextronics (8417.TWO) – CPO connector AND cage thermal module, dual role in Nvidia stack COXOC (6205.TW) – CPO connector and cage thermal module for Broadcom PCL Tech (4977.TW) – optical engine and ELS module Hon Hai (2317.TW) – system-level assembly All Ring (6187.TWO) – CPO coupling and test equipment China 🇨🇳 Innolight (300308.SZ) – optical engine, FAU, and ELS module TFC Optical (300394.SZ) – optical engine and FAU Eoptolink (300502.SZ) – optical engine Advanced Fiber Resources (300620.SZ) – FAU supplier Robotechnik (300757.SZ) – CPO coupling and test equipment YJ Semitech (688498.SS) – laser sources and CW laser Japan 🇯🇵 Sumitomo (8053.T) – laser sources, CW laser, ELS module Furukawa (5801.T) – laser sources and CW laser Hong Kong 🇭🇰 ASMPT (0522.HK) – CPO coupling equipment InP substrate ($AXTI) supply stays tight through 2027 and every laser in this stack needs it. Supply constrained, demand accelerating. CPO is a one-way road. Physics already made this decision. You can’t move 1.6T of data down copper at scale. Photons replaced electrons. The architecture doesn’t reverse Once every high-speed GPU link goes optical, copper doesn’t come back. It’s a permanent architectural shift. Most retail investors rotate every two weeks chasing the next shiny ticker. In the short time I’ve been trading, not holding through the noise has cost me three times more than any bad entry ever did. Being on the right theme is the most important decision you make. Find your thesis. Do the work. Diamond hands all the way to the bank.

NVDA up close if L assignment --- we have the possibility of an L assignment on Monday statistically, !! unless we keep running a continuation of an outlier play. we know by the purple vector being broken price on Friday May 8th was attempting to get underneath indicating ***Possible*** but, not guaranteed pullback. The statistical odds showing we are in an outlier move. @FractalExchange #NVDA $NVDA

Did you remember my $AXTI InP substrate bottleneck call last year anon? IntelliEPI CEO (Q1 2026 ER): "The InP substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure" Digitimes: "Taiwan's IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage" I said as photonics ramps: There was going to be a major InP bottleneck as all the next-gen AI architectures go optical. This was most goated call with AXT as the upstream chokepoint. I'm usually a few months ahead of time, but they play out directionally. While I'm sitting in existing bottlenecks up 1800%+, I'm long CPO as the next major supercycle.