Mark Maxwell

Everyone's focused on oil right now. And I get it. Brent above $100, the Strait of Hormuz shut down, tankers stranded. But there's an energy crisis hiding in plain sight that could be even MORE consequential: Uranium. Here are the numbers you should know: Global uranium demand is roughly 90,000 tons per year. Global production is 60,000 tons. That's a 30,000-ton annual DEFICIT. So how has the market survived so far? Utilities have been burning through their inventories. After Fukushima, Japan shut its reactors. Sweden pulled back. Germany closed its fleet entirely. Those utilities had 12 to 15 years of uranium stockpiled. Today, the average inventory level is just TWO YEARS. The cushion is gone. And demand is about to explode. There are roughly 200 new reactors planned globally by 2040. Each reactor consumes about 160 tons of raw uranium per year. That's 32,000 tons of additional annual demand. Half of one year's current production. Just from new reactors. And where does the supply come from? Well... it doesn't. Kazakhstan produces 45% of the world's uranium. Starting in 2028, Kazakhstan plans to dedicate 100% of its supply to China and Russia. Already 80% goes to those two countries. But that remaining 20% disappearing from the open market will tighten an already desperate situation. There aren't enough new mine projects to fill the gap. Mining is hard. Permitting takes years. And the world hasn't invested seriously in new uranium production for over a decade. But here's the part that's REALLY scary: Enriched uranium. Raw uranium is useless for a reactor. It has to be enriched. And 60% of the world's enrichment capacity sits in Russia. If Putin decided to embargo enriched uranium exports, it would be devastating for Western utilities. And strategically, it would cost Russia almost nothing. Russia's enrichment business generates roughly $6 billion a year. That's what Russia earns from ONE WEEK of oil sales. Why Putin hasn't pulled this lever yet is a mystery. But the vulnerability is real and every Western utility executive knows it. This is why we're bullish on uranium. Uranium spot prices are around $87 per pound. $200 per pound by 2027 or 2028 is entirely achievable given the supply-demand math. The oil trade gets the headlines. But people overlook uranium. A 30,000-ton annual deficit. Utility inventories at two years. Kazakhstan redirecting supply to China. Russia controlling 60% of enrichment. And 200 new reactors coming online. THE MATH DOESN'T LIE

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