martineger
1.1K posts


I said earlier not to trade Micron. Looking at markets now, Micron should hit about $1450 by end of June. And then it’s inevitable that we will have a correction on Nasdaq and S&P starting in July that will last about 6 weeks.
So a reasonable gamble is to sell Micron end of June and then buy back 20 - 25% lower. That way you will have more Micron when it rips again. I think it’s a reasonable move at least with a part of your portfolio.
A good ticker to track to time the correction is Meta. Meta should hit $790 before correction starts. Keep an eye on that one too.
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@DaveHcontrarian @JeremySzafron Is it safe to say at this point the iran deal is a reality? Do we rally for a few weeks now and potentially hit your summer top?
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@martineger1 @JeremySzafron Iran is a significant factor in all markets but not the only factor. My forecasts are based on the sum of my analysis. Never one thing.
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Had a good conversation with @JeremySzafron of Kitco,recorded 5/20/26.Talked about current market melt-up,coming global deflationary bust & the cycle that will follow.Also the Fed,rates,the metals & oil. youtube.com/watch?v=CP7ap7…

YouTube
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@ShaunTimcke @FirstSquawk Yea but now they may be cash stranded so situation is different
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GALIBAF AND ARAGHCHI'S VISIT TO DOHA MAY BE THE FINAL SPRINT TO RESOLVING THE DISPUTE WITH WASHINGTON, SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE FROZEN IRANIAN ASSETS (THE AMOUNT, METHOD OF PAYMENT, AND TIMING OF PAYMENT). IF THE VISIT SUCCEEDS, IT IS LIKELY THAT AN AGREEMENT WILL BE ANNOUNCED WITHIN A MAXIMUM TIMEFRAME OF TOMORROW, AND THIS IS PLAUSIBLE; OTHERWISE, WE MAY RETURN TO SQUARE ONE.
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@KobeissiLetter kind of insane how markets can go from “world war fears” to “record highs” in less than one news cycle.
traders truly have the emotional stability of a goldfish with leverage.
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My thoughts on Bitcoin and how to deal with it...
I know a lot Bitcoiners are disillusioned about the inflationary fiat currency and they want Bitcoin to succeed so they can stick it to the system. For that to happen, you need the large majority of the population completely gets off it which means all goods, and labor must be exchanged on it. Right now all of the goods and labor are still pegged to fiat, so therefore BTC is pegged to USD.
When the US dollar got off the gold standard, the Saudi oil didn't want to sell oil in US dollar (in 1970s). Well the US brought some carriers, and big guns and told them to accept it (kind of like Iran crisis now). Without the US:Oil peg, USD would have been dead. The lesson here is, the US Dollar will easily point the gun back at Bitcoin if we strayed too far.
Inflationary fiat system is a big sham that every 4 years cycle, our election system fight it out to see which party gets to control "spending", which controls inflation. Do you really think just drop that and switch to Bitcoin where they cannot inflate the currency?
I have concluded a long time ago that the best way to fight inflationary is to grow money as fast as possible and be part of the equity owner social class where profits of goods, and services get transferred. Inflation is just a noise for you to find alternative or give up on the system. You're in the middle of AI Industrialization where equity are growing 4x 10x. This is your opportunity to accumulate equity ownership.
Now don't get it wrong regarding my position of Bitcoin. I love Bitcoin. It's supply capped, immutable, highly trust-worthy. Maybe it will work well on Mars w/o the govt. It won't be as impactful as many would expect here on Earth.
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@DaveHcontrarian @aashim595 @JeremySzafron Do you believe the latest news on an Iran deal? Wondering why the market isn’t reacting. Do you think once it is official we are off to the races?
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@aashim595 @JeremySzafron My forecast tells you what I expect. I don't try to guess the precise path.
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@jessebday @DougAMacgregor I agree but no more round of warfare because we are rapidly approaching midterms
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"$200 a barrel before the end of the year, and the world is not going to punish or penalize Iran for that. They're going to look at us." @DougAMacgregor on the dire consequences of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Full interview up TOMORROW.
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@derekquick1 Great post. Any ETFs for less risk vs individual stocks?
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Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F delay,is he establishing positions in Nuclear? He stated "You can play energy for AI two ways.
1. Natural gas 2. Small modular reactors SMRs Clean energy." Advance acts makes it probable. A nuclear Energy & Uranium squeeze is coming either way. $LEU
Leopold Aschenbrenner@leopoldasch
"I realized the other day...they need electricity... they need double what we have right now"
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Muchos estadounidenses se quejan. Pero se gastan 3.000$ como quienes en Europa gastan 30€. Mantienen el consumismo con crédito 💳 y exceso de trabajo. Veblen había anticipado esto con su definición de bienes posicionales o de estatus; es decir, competencia en el consumo.
Capitán Bitcoin@CapitanBitcoin
🚨 El costo de vida está golpeando fuerte en Estados Unidos: “Me siento en mi coche todos los días después del trabajo, AGOTADA. Tengo 57 años. ¿Cuándo va a terminar esto? Estoy HARTA de trabajar. Todo se está volviendo más caro. Estoy harta de esta vida”
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BREAKING: Iran has responded to the US' list of "conditions" to reach a peace deal to end the war.
Iran's conditions include:
1. Ending the war on all fronts across the Middle East
2. Lifting of US sanctions on Iran
3. Releasing of all Iranian frozen funds
4. Compensation for war damages
5. Recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
The US explicitly lists two of Iran's five conditions as NOT occurring in their "pre-conditions" for a deal.
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@martineger1 @TheLongInvest I'm being sarcastic.. They're wrong imo
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@gabz_investor05 @TheLongInvest Missing the run to $400 for UNH not concerning??? To buy macys instead???
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