Larry Lou

@DeItaone we go much higher

TREASURY 30-YEAR YIELD TOPS 5.01% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY

Bessent is the 2nd biggest idiot ever seen, 1st djt

@DeItaone do more qe/ycc, do more yentervention, prob solved

JAPAN FINMIN KATAYAMA: JAPAN HAS VAST SUPPLY CHAINS IN ASIA, WHICH ARE FACING DISRUPTIONS RISKS

@13F_Pro @DeItaone fu stupid bot

@DeItaone Denying something happened in a few hours is the weakest possible move. If there's actually a blockade, you announce it loud and proud, not issue a damage-control statement that screams "we're improvising."

🚨 IRAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAY: NO COMMERCIAL VESSEL OR TANKER HAS CROSSED STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN PAST FEW HOURS, SAY 'CLAIMS BY U.S. OFFICIALS ARE BASELESS AND COMPLETE LIES' - TASNIM NEWS

Signs... Credit Markets Crack 🚫 Yield Curve Inversion✅ Earnings Deterioration 🚫 Fed Trapped ⚠️ Leadership Deteriorates w/o Rotation⚠️ Labor Market Stress Worsens⚠️ Breadth Collapses✅ Consumer Deterioration ⚠️ ...beginning from elevated initial conditions ✅ 14/n

@themarketear moron calling

KOSPI - This isn’t euphoria. Not yet. zerohedge.com/the-market-ear…

@MisbehavingE @DarioCpx Wrong

@DarioCpx With Iran, it depends on what China wants. If China wants the Trump meeting to go ahead, then Iran will play nice. If Iran doesn't play nice, its because Xi doesn't want to meet Trump and China's economic warfare with US will step up a notch - US treasuries, rare earths etc.

Trump obvious strategy: provoke Iran to attack so US troops will then begin a new “defensive” operation not continue the “offensive” Epic Fury that needed Congress approval Traders so far believe Iran won’t be resolute in defending its wins from round 1 - I disagree with them

@policytensor no 450 option?

If China attacked US bases in Asia tomorrow, how many aircraft out of a total of 450 would the US lose?

@CRUDEOIL231 3rd choice, attack the US escort ships

It looks like Iran is left with only two choices: sit back and watch the US Navy escort ships through the strait, losing all their leverage, or respond militarily to protect it. The former would gut their bargaining power, while the latter gives the US and Israel the perfect excuse to restart hostile military operations. We all know what Iran is going to choose. The moment their speedboats fire a shot, US and the IDF will drop the missiles. Tbh i think Washington played this one pretty smart. They’ve set the bait perfectly. #oott #iran

@sebkrier Full of dogshit

DeepSeek V4’s capability lags behind leading U.S. models by about 8 months. nist.gov/news-events/ne…

@bboczeng 草泥马的大傻逼

操，中美模型的差距 原来是越来越大， 而不是越来越小了？

@PurpleDrink_LLC Cuz you are an idiot

March apparently just created an infinite amount of Hormuztards it’s incredible how many of you think you know something the entire global financial markets can’t price in

@AravSrinivas dogshit

@VolSignals wrong

Bingo. If you observe the market is systematically behaving one way, and you complain while losing money fighting it– instead of calibrate to riding the currents, you need to evaluate whether you’re mature enough to keep risking capital since you’re committing an obvious error

I agree that the timing was off (I also was expecting things to get much worse by now - as you remember my scenario - it which we would emerge relatively unscarred was beginning of reopening mid April). It would have been good for agencies / banks etc to acknowledge that, rather than silently shifting the timeline. BUT. 1) If we keep underproducing 13mbd+ (or even 15mbd - if Iran exports are halted) we will hit the wall. It is a question of "when", but not "if". I really do not buy the idea that global economy can destroy 10mbd+ (or even 5mbd+) of demand indefinitely without major problems (I saw a couple smart people effectively arguing that there is more "fat" - not so critical demand in the system than we think, but I am not convinced). And while oil intensity of GDP is much lower than 10-20-50 years ago, the are also fewer easy substitutions - because easy ones have already happened. Much of remaining oil barrels are those for which there is not substitution. Not all of them, but proportion is much higher than in the previous oil crises. 2) Because of the logistics of the closure (pre-war tankers kept arriving during March and beg. of April, large inventory excess, incl. oil on water) the chances of experiencing stress on actual physical / operational level in the beginning is lower. So I guess the stress now would be conditioned on market deciding to price the risks of further -1-2-3 months prolongation of disruption immediately. This did not happen, because the market kept thinking that reopening will happen soon (and Trump's headlines obviously helped there) and hence did not want to price future risks. The fact that there are major structural bull drivers in the market and earnings estimates keep being upgraded (by a lot) obviously make it easier to ignore the Hormuz risks. But the story going forward will be different. Even in the US - which is much better supplied, product storage levels are at 5y seasonal lows and will keep going down (unless US restrict exports). Imagine what will happen if we keep drawing 20-25mb petroleum liquids per week, like we did last week? Thus, extrapolating from March-April experience would be wrong. I do not know btw what happens if we get close to experiencing these operational stress events in the highly visible markets (Europe and the US) and then SOH would reopen (e.g. because prices for either oil or products would shoot up to the level that will force administration to make a move): even after reopening we will continue losing barrels for a while. Maybe those volumes inside SOH and perhaps China SPR release would be enough to smooth things out, maybe not .... Anyway - what I want to say here is - I think the commodity specialists have to raise the alarm here - it is the right thing to do. General market cannot be aware of various inventory / logistical constraints that matter here and it needs to understand that we do not have infinite time. Maybe some of us were too apocalyptic but Hormuz is literally a time bomb. We need to stop this before the major damage starts to happen. Even if the bomb goes off (much) later than originally expected, I do not think it is wrong to be a bit alarmist. This is the mother of all energy flow disruptions.

@Dan_Jeffries1 lying the most, you mean

Jensen is one the smartest and most far seeing folks the world. "If an AI scientist warns people that AI is going to permeate across radiology and radiologists are going to get wiped out, it might seem helpful but it's hurtful. If we convince everybody not to be radiologists and we now need radiologists, that actually is hurtful to society. "It is hurtful to convince all the young college graduates not to study software engineering because we are going to need more software engineers than ever. That's hurtful." "Scaring people with nonsensical things, which are not going to happen, that this is an existential threat, there's a 20% chance that is is existential, that's ridiculous. "That it's going to wipe out 50% of college level jobs. "That is it going to completely destroy democracy. "These kinds of comments are not helpful. They are made by...CEOS. And you become a CEO, maybe you adopt a God complex and somehow you know everything." Brutal. And right.

@Simonsdad3 @Blueandorange33 @DiveBomb321 maga in their wet dream lmao

@Blueandorange33 @DiveBomb321 He goes to China with kharg and Venezuela. Tells them to send them unlimited rare earths and they get unlimited oil

Perhaps showing hostilities won't resume? Or head fake? If they were happening this weekend you would think it would have started already. 🤷‍♂️

@goon_ddd83851 Get out of the box rat.

@masterMind15297 He's been rejecting them; Iran has been offering them right now.

US lost way more, retarded weapons, useless bases, and money burnt to manipulate markets. Iran is doing just okay

@ericwallerstein US is fucked then

If NATO functionally disbands, where does EURUSD trade?

@goon_ddd83851 Why does your master beg a deal every day then?

@masterMind15297 Iran is indeed not just doing okay. Regardless of how you feel the US is doing.