Matt Brookes

I respectfully disagree because I believe the @profstonge seems to believe AI to be a tool for humans in the same way as a plough or steam engine were tools. This is misguided. In the agricultural revolution, technology came for farming jobs but created more jobs elsewhere. In the Industrial Revolution, technology came for manufacturing jobs but created more jobs elsewhere. But AI isn’t coming for jobs; it’s coming for humans. First the knowledge workers, then the manual workers. AI and robotics are slowly rendering human intelligence and hard work valueless. And the jury is out on creativity.

Will AI Eliminate 86% of Women's Jobs First? | CLIP @profstonge dismantles AI job doom narratives using thousands of years of automation history, arguing every wave of automation has always created more and better-paying jobs, and that AI will be no different. The twist: the Brookings study showing 86% of permanently displaced AI workers will be women in clerical and administrative roles means the people writing AI doom content are exactly the ones about to lose their jobs to it. What are your thoughts on Peter’s prediction? Watch the full episode below.

@gnoble79 Can’t comment on the rest but I think that the Waymo call here is dead wrong. Given what I know about the technologies used by Waymo vs Tesla for autonomous vehicles I’m pretty sure that Waymo’s model is financially unsustainable. IMO Waymo is toast.

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla. Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice: Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD." He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation. Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done. BUT IT DIDN'T Those promises are now officially broken. The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4. Not a refund or a free upgrade... A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla. Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS. But that's not even the worst part. Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety. What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe. How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake. Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating: Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right? WRONG Dig into the actual filing: The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs." They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation. GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap. Let me put that in perspective: 3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings. All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet... 3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year. So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion. The math doesn't work. They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares. The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time: Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again). They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought. Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year. Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline. And here's what really kills the bull case... The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it: Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion. And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment. Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15. Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not. The stock is $387. So what exactly are you paying for? You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone. I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981. And I am telling you: Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career. THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

What a time to be alive. Next up… Optimus robots.

@grey4626 "We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm." Human rights lawyers are wilfully ignoring human nature; our whole civilisation will reap what they sow.

This is the fucking death rattle of a once-lethal empire. Elite SAS operators...hardened killers from D and G Squadrons, men who have danced with the devil in the dust of Afghanistan and the shadows of Syria...are walking away in droves. Not from fear of the enemy, but from the venomous blade of their own nation’s human-rights lawyers and retrospective inquisitors. Witch hunts dressed in the sanctimonious robes of “accountability.” This isn’t oversight; it’s pathology. A civilization that has internalized self-loathing to the point where it pathologically castrates its own apex predators. You cannot forge a military that operates with lethal precision under the Damocles sword of war-crimes tribunals. Split-second decisions in the fog of war...against savages who behead, rape, and film atrocities for propaganda...now second-guessed by desk-bound parasites who’ve never heard a round crack past their ear. The warrior psyche demands absolute trust that the nation behind the trigger has its back. Strip that away and you don’t get caution; you get paralysis. You get morale annihilation. You get the slow psychological evisceration of men bred for violence, now forced to weigh legal liability before they pull the trigger. What remains is not an army...it’s a risk-averse bureaucracy selecting for compliance over courage. Historically, this is the recurring cancer that felled Rome: when the Senate’s legalists and philosophers emasculated the legions to appease internal pieties and foreign opinion, the barbarians didn’t need to win battles; the empire simply rotted from within. Britain post-Suez, post-Falklands decline echoes the same suicidal trajectory...once the sharpest edge of Western power, now reduced to a declawed housecat bleeding talent because its own elites prefer performative morality over survival. Geopolitically, it’s suicide by self-flagellation. While Russia and China field militaries unbound by ECHR fantasies or activist jurisprudence...unfettered by neurotic restraints that treat every dead jihadi as a potential lawsuit...NATO’s premier special-forces unit hemorrhages its finest. The UK, once the tip of the spear, now presents as a soft underbelly. This isn’t alliance strength; it’s collective weakness masquerading as virtue. One moreExhibit in why this bloated, lawyer-infested pact is a strategic liability, not an asset. Time to fucking disentangle. Get the hell out of NATO before the rot metastasizes fatally. The UK hasn’t just stumbled; it has fallen. And the jackals circling its carcass are its own “progressive” elites. Lethal force demands lethal protection for those who wield it. Anything less is national betrayal...pure and simple. This is civilizational suicide. 💀⚔️⚖️

@ick_real Ottilie

I'm looking for a ridiculously old-fashioned girl's name for our new born . Think great-grandma name. Very old and rare. Any suggestions asap pls?

@mike_sal @ayonzontop @aakashgupta Wasn’t that always the case? I guess the most you can say is that **more** people can now build poorly architected software.

@mattbrookes @ayonzontop @aakashgupta Yeah anyone can now build poorly architected software that can't scale.

Anthropic has 454 open roles. The company is hiring software engineers at $320K-$405K. Their CEO, Dario, said three months ago that coding is "going away first, then all of software engineering." The paradox resolves instantly. Dario's engineers told him they don't write code anymore. They let Claude write it. They edit. They review. They architect. They didn't lose their jobs. They got faster. Anthropic grew from a small research lab to 1,500 employees in four years, adding engineers the entire time. This has played out five times in computing history. Compilers replaced assembly. Frameworks replaced boilerplate. Cloud replaced server management. Every prediction was the same: most programmers won't be needed. Every result was the same: the number of engineers grew. The global software engineer pool went from roughly 5 million in 2010 to 28.7 million today. BLS projects 17% growth in US software developer roles through 2033, adding 304,000 positions. The pool is projected to hit 45 million by 2030. When building software gets cheaper, more problems become worth solving with software. A startup that needed 10 engineers now needs 3. But 50 companies that couldn't afford to build at all now can. The denominator shrinks. The numerator explodes. Meta's engineering headcount is up 19% from January 2022. Google's is up 16%. Apple, 13%. These companies adopted AI coding tools years ago. They're using Copilot and Claude Code daily. They're hiring more engineers than before those tools existed. Every generation of "coding is dead" content creates two cohorts: engineers who freeze up, and engineers who build 10x more with the new tools. The second group has won every single time.

Perhaps. But the people who built those frameworks and plugins built them on some application layer which was built on an OS, which is built on firmware, which is built on hardware. I’m pretty sure that AI is capable of creating any of these except the hardware. And that’s probably next.

@mattbrookes @aakashgupta Could it be you sit at the middle layer of software dev where frameworks, libraries and plugins have already been built for you? Companies building foundational software that AI has never built will still need smart human engineers. Seems to be the difference between companies.

@Renomalen @ayonzontop @aakashgupta I saw the way this was heading three years ago, sold last year as a result, am still working and only in the last three months have I personally used these tools to build for me in a day what would have taken a whole team weeks. It's only my personal experience.

@mattbrookes @ayonzontop @aakashgupta But then how in last three months you notice this when you sell your company a year ago???

@DooDooEcon @aakashgupta All of them... .Net, LAMP, Xcode

@mattbrookes @aakashgupta On what stack?

@ayonzontop @aakashgupta You know how to use Google right? Besides, I’m not trying to convince you. You do you.

@mattbrookes @aakashgupta Sure bro... whatever you say

@ayonzontop @aakashgupta Sold the company last year for this very reason. Saw the writing on the wall in 2022 and set about exiting. Figured the PE guys would work this out at any moment and the doors would lock. Anyone buying a software business right now needs their head read. Hopefully I’m wrong.

@mattbrookes @aakashgupta Link to your software?

Future stars 🌟 England U18 Women’s head coach James Cooper has confirmed his 48-player squad for this weekend’s training camp at Bisham Abbey.

I’ve been saying this for a few years now but it bears repeating because people outside of this area are just not getting it. In the agricultural revolution, technology came for agricultural jobs. In the industrial revolution, technology came for manufacturing jobs. But AI isn’t coming for jobs; it’s coming for humans.

@London_W4 Not many of your photos can be improved but I fixed it for you.

Walking around Salzburg last night and I love the orange glow from the windows. Also, it’s obviously the law right around the world, to place a crane exactly where I want to take a photograph.

@stats_feed @grok Hmmm… some nation somewhere perhaps using VPN to Singapore?

@stats_feed @grok what is this per capita?

Countries with the highest monthly visits to p*rn sites 1. 🇺🇸 United States - 3.17 billion 2. 🇮🇩 Indonesia - 765.40 million 3. 🇧🇷 Brazil - 502.81 M 4. 🇫🇷 France - 469.13 M 5. 🇵🇭 Philippines - 453.35 M 6. 🇯🇵 Japan - 396.23 M 7. 🇨🇦 Canada - 329.91 M 8. 🇲🇽 Mexico - 322.36 M 9. 🇮🇳 India - 284.81 M 10. 🇪🇸 Spain - 284.60 M 11. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom - 268.55 M 12. 🇵🇱 Poland - 256.27 M 13. 🇦🇺 Australia - 224.77 M 14. 🇩🇪 Germany - 221.98 M 15. 🇸🇬 Singapore - 199.33 M 16. 🇮🇹 Italy - 182.99 M 17. 🇨🇴 Colombia - 172.39 M 18. 🇺🇦 Ukraine - 167.72 M 19. 🇳🇱 Netherlands - 163.03 M 20. 🇦🇷 Argentina - 143.60 M 21. 🇲🇾 Malaysia - 138.48 M 22. 🇪🇬 Egypt - 134.68 M 23. 🇻🇳 Vietnam - 123.63 M 24. 🇷🇺 Russia - 110.36 M 25. 🇨🇱 Chile - 108.41 M Source: Semrush 2024

@fesshole Trying to give it away was your first mistake. Leave it outside with a “for sale £250” sign and it would disappear in minutes

Just taken a mint condition, high-quality 1080p TV to the recycling centre because we literally couldn't give it away. Future historians will write about stuff like this.

@SkySportsF1 You go sis!

"I prefer to speak about the race, not just one single moment." Max Verstappen reacts to his collision with George Russell.

I have no dog in this fight but this may be why… - **2021**: Purdue Pharma – fined $8.9 billion (for its role in the opioid crisis, including criminal fines and forfeiture) - **2012**: GlaxoSmithKline – fined $3 billion (for unlawful promotion of prescription drugs and failure to report safety data) - **2009**: Pfizer – fined $2.3 billion (for illegal promotion of Bextra and other drugs, largest healthcare fraud settlement at the time) - **2013**: Johnson & Johnson – fined $2.2 billion (for misbranding and off-label promotion of Risperdal and other drugs) - **2007**: Merck – fined $1.85 billion (for fraudulent pricing and marketing of Vioxx, adjusted for inflation) - **2012**: Abbott – fined $1.5 billion (for unlawful promotion of Depakote for unapproved uses) - **2009**: Eli Lilly – fined $1.42 billion (for illegal promotion of Zyprexa for unapproved uses in elderly patients) - **2021**: Endo Health Solutions – fined $1.536 billion (for distributing misbranded opioid medication, including $1.086 billion in criminal fines and $450 million in forfeiture) - **2001**: TAP Pharmaceutical Products – fined $875 million (for fraudulent pricing and marketing of Lupron, including a $290 million criminal fine) - **2012**: Amgen – fined $762 million (for illegal marketing of Aranesp and other drugs, including $612 million in civil liability and $150 million in criminal fines) Seems as if Herbalife in the US was also fined for business practices at some point but not for criminality. Holland and Barrett never fined. I’d say the above was pretty good cause to at least be suspicious of big pharma even if it didn’t warrant outright hate. Would you not agree?

Companies such as Herbalife and Holland and Barrett are worth billions of dollars as a result of selling unproven supplements. But it's Big Pharma you hate the most...