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one of the most common frustrations i hear from founders crafting a fundraising narrative is:
"VCs want to hear this grand future vision, but i'm only at the preseed stage. I see a big customer need that i can solve right now. But i don't know exactly what it becomes in 10 years"
first off, I hear you.
So much of success is post-rationalized.
its hard to tell which parts of a decacorn founder's story is "Hindsight is 2020" versus....not.
AirBnB is a classically debated example....those first experiments when they couldn’t afford rent and realized hotels were sold out around a design conference and put airbeds in a living room.....it wasn't exactly the "we will change hospitality" pitch in 2009 when they went to YC.
it is one step at a time.
but the founders with the biggest visions have spent a LOT more time "living in the future"
They're able to sell the bigger vision because they spend more time thinking about 2nd and 3rd order effects.
They have insights about why the recent tailwind will change how everyone does X thing
and that makes this new vision possible.
it really all boils down to depth of thinking in a specific area with hypotheses & constraints.
what will change, what will not, now that we have this new tailwind.
depth.
i think this is ultimately why VCs obsess over having that big vision so much. it's one of the stronger signals for depth of thinking.
in my experience, VCs are looking for 2 things in a vision:
1) a huge future vision
2) a credible path to get there
1) A huge future vision:
- VCs want to walk away feeling like they learned something entirely new
- VCs want to feel like the founders has spent way more time living in the future, have a vocabulary and clear mental picture. almost like how an author has built a world for its characters and then later builds the story through that world - you've already thought about where all the ecosystem actors will be and how they'll behave economically
2) credible path to get there
- working backward from th?at future vision - what would need to be true to get there
- why is the first wedge you've set up the right first step to get to that future vision, what does it unlock?
- this is is where depth of thinking really shines.
- this credibility part is what makes or breaks vision in a fundraise narrative
ok that's my fundraising 2 cents for tonight
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