Benjamin Pincock

Q4 mining costs to support Bills claim. Last halving bear bottom was -25% AISC for $RIOT. I, the ever optimist, hoped we would hold 70-75k as that fit the narrative. Now that these levels have been broken, you must assume worst case, which would be right in @billfour range of 55-60k. If we get -25% below AISC of the cheapest miners we’re at 40k. I wouldn’t rule out anything in $BTC but I like bills range, especially after today. $MARA $IBIT $IREN $ABTC $MSTR $HODL $COIN $WULF $BITF $HUT $CLSK

BREAKING: US forces struck two IRGC boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and missile sites in Bandar Abbas, per CENTCOM spokesperson. A source close to Iran's Ghalibaf says Iran's "decisive response" is now underway. The deal is off.

U.S. FORCES HIT TARGETS INCLUDING MISSILE LAUNCH SITES AND IRANIAN BOATS ATTEMPTING TO EMPLACE MINES -FOX NEWS, CITING U.S. CENTCOM SPOKESPERSON

#BREAKING: Large fires on Iran’s Kharg Island.

U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND: U.S. FORCES CARRY OUT STRIKES IN SOUTHERN IRAN IN SELF-DEFENSE

oil down another 10% spx up another 20% what a great deal

BREAKING: US strikes Iranian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s state-run Nour News says US and Israeli warplanes targeted several Iranian vessels south of Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz.

An Iranian official source told me Tehran has warned Washington that any Israeli attacks on Beirut or the southern suburbs would seriously jeopardize ongoing efforts to end the war, and could derail the diplomatic track altogether.

BREAKING: Israel launches Operation Arrows of Fury despite US Negotiations.

LOUD EXPLOSIONS HEARD AROUND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ — FARS NEWS

Last wk, S&P +0.9% its 8th straight up wk as oil fell 8.4% to $97. But 2yr bond yields rose 5pbs to 4.12% further discounting a Fed rate hike by year-end. The mkt also shrugged off the Mag7 decline of 0.7% on avg led by the 4.4% drop in $NVDA last wk despite solid results. In addition, oil prices are impacting consumer demand with $WMT falling 8.5% last week on earnings call comments that “the lower-income consumer is more budget-conscious and perhaps navigating financial distress.” Walmart had $750B in sales last year. But with a framework for a deal with Iran over the weekend, oil initially looks like it will decline to ~$90 driving a decline in bond yields and rally in stock prices to new all time record highs when US markets re-open on Tuesday. Over the short-term, follow-through for the rest of the week, especially as it relates to oil prices and bond yields, will be key for the S&P, given it is likely to be technically overbought again on Tuesday. In addition, there is still more work to be done before a final agreement is reached with Iran. But with US mid-term elections coming up, the desire is high to get to a final agreement. As it relates to the long-term, I posted on X on March 31st “History May not Repeat Itself but it Often Does Rhyme.” I compared 2026 to 97/98 where macro scares caused the S&P to have intra-year declines of 11% and 19% but finish the years up 31% and 27%. End of March had a great risk vs reward for investing with the S&P having declined 9% from its closing highs through March 30th. For those who believe we are in an AI bubble, it is important to remember that it can inflate further. During the internet infrastructure buildout for comparison, $CSCO in early 2000 peaked at a ~140x PE on forward twelve month earnings with revs growing 55% in FY2000. By comparison, $NVDA is trading at a 25x CY26 PE with street estimates for revs to grow at 80% versus the S&P at 22x while growing revs at 12%. This hardly screams over-valuation. In addition, the advent of Agentic AI earlier this year as punctuated by OpenClaw, has driven a step-function change in token demand of 10-100x. There was no similar development during the internet infrastructure buildout. On the AI front, one major positive development last week was the disclosure that Anthropic estimates from Q1 to Q2 for revenue to more than double to $11B with over $500M in profits. This compares to their forecasts last summer of expecting to reach profitability only in 2028. This will go a long way to answering concerns over ROIC for the entire AI trade. On the negative side, the ferocious ramp in revenues being seen at Anthropic and OpenAI has companies looking to cut expenses elsewhere. There are increasing datapoints in software about shortening license agreements and hybrid models vs pure per seat pricing. For example, Uber stated that they burned through their yearly AI budget in just 4 months. Microsoft despite investing $5B in Anthropic in November has started winding down employee access to Anthropic’s Claude given the surging compute costs. My belief is slower headcount growth or cuts, less consulting services and lower software costs is where CFOs will find that money to spend on AI bills. With the S&P now up 18% from March 30th, there is reason to remain optimistic for the rest of 2026 with 1) oil prices likely to decline through year-end, 2) S&P earnings expected to increase 25% in 2026, 3) AI related capex growing ~70% driven by the advent of Agentic AI and 4) the desire of incoming Fed Chairman Warsh to cut rates which should somewhat offset the pressure from the bond market pricing in a rate hike by year-end. I remember today those who died in service and sacrificed for our great country.

Best of luck to Benn. Not your first rodeo, neither your last. You've helped countless people on X and in person, and I hope you just keep going. Even the thread below is helpful. To those who dunk: the ones without sin among you can first cast a stone. Or at least try [risk-] managing a HF, then come back.

Koreans about to get margin called on their domestic stock market at 5x earnings watching the American money roll in via IBKR

@dampedspring There’s a whole generation that just started trading and knows nothing but bull runs. Never been in a bubble before. It’s trial by fire 🔥

Deleted my posts on Hype. No interest in sharing my thoughts on this topic.

UNITED STATES AND IRAN PROVIDES FOR THE OPENING OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITHOUT FEES AND THE REMOVAL OF MINES

CEASEFIRE AGREED ON BY THE U.S. AND IRAN IN EARLY APRIL WOULD BE EXTENDED FOR 60 DAYS - NIKKEI

“After today’s market moves, the most likely scenario already appears to be largely priced in. Therefore expect some ‘sell the news’ dynamics once a deal is finally reached, and I would refrain from adding exposure to equities until yield curves move lower.” - Singular Bank

GALIBAF AND ARAGHCHI'S VISIT TO DOHA MAY BE THE FINAL SPRINT TO RESOLVING THE DISPUTE WITH WASHINGTON, SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE FROZEN IRANIAN ASSETS (THE AMOUNT, METHOD OF PAYMENT, AND TIMING OF PAYMENT). IF THE VISIT SUCCEEDS, IT IS LIKELY THAT AN AGREEMENT WILL BE ANNOUNCED WITHIN A MAXIMUM TIMEFRAME OF TOMORROW, AND THIS IS PLAUSIBLE; OTHERWISE, WE MAY RETURN TO SQUARE ONE.

PEACE DEAL OR BIGGER WAR Trump says Iran talks are progressing well, but warns there will either be a “Great Deal” or a return to a much larger conflict. After talks with Middle East leaders, he called for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain to join the Abraham Accords alongside any future Iran deal. Trump says the Accords have already boosted stability and economic growth for current members and could unite the Middle East in an unprecedented alliance.

@AI_EmeraldApple This is why we need American-made computers and phones.