2025 R.Babson
10.1K posts
2025 R.Babson
@mickworld221
Small caps are dead, Long live the small caps. everything I twitter assume to be inaccurate and cannot be relied on
Katılım Ekim 2020
330 Takip Edilen211 Takipçiler
Copper Heavily Reliant on a Rising Stock Market
Copper appears increasingly dependent on the US stock market to keep going up for the metal not to go down. My graphic featuring the per-pound price of copper on the same scale as the S&P 500 (divided by 1,000) may suggest what's driving: US stocks. At about $6.30 on May 15, the metal reached a new high but has lagged behind beta, particularly since 2023. A primary reason may be deflationary forces in China, the world's largest consumer of copper. Falling 10-year government bond yields in Beijing share same-chart syndrome with the ratio of the metal vs. the S&P 500.
If copper were to catch up to the SPX, it would be closer to $7.30, but what to expect if beta backs up? The implication seems clear and is why we view copper as a top commodity that needs equities to keep gaining.
Full report on the Bloomberg here: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t… {BI COMD}
#copper #stockmarket @BBGIntelligence
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@bnthompson 50% CGT didn't turn Australia into a country of entrepreneurs - seems to be the opposite- full of monopolies and duopolies that pay govt big donations via lobby groups
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Doubling CGT on all asset classes is Labor’s version of WorkChoices. It’s a tax on entrepreneurship, small business, investing and aspiration.
Let’s buildaustralia.com instead!
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@nitro_sam @cjoye Watch the 2nd apartment market, prices haven't gone up last 5 yrs, interest rates are up, strata only goes up, and there will be no buyers as negative gearing is gone- those overstated depreciation assets used to cut taxes are gone. will it be a blood bath?
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Bang on @cjoye
christopher joye@cjoye
There are two other dire consequences of this budget that nobody is talking about. The first is that the budget’s introduction of an effective capital gains tax of up to 45 per cent - 47 per cent – previously capped at 23.5 per cent for assets held more than 12 months – hits younger savers hardest, precisely because they have the highest portfolio exposures to high-growth assets such as listed global equities, Australian shares, crypto, venture capital and private equity. When anyone builds a portfolio for younger investors, they rationally load them up with the highest-growth and most volatile assets on the basis that a long investment horizon allows them to weather the inevitable volatility storms. As investors age, these portfolios shift into more stable and income-rich asset classes such as cash and bonds, which are net beneficiaries of the CGT increase, because their post-tax returns now look more attractive relative to growth assets. As many investors have noted online, why would you allocate to a bunch of high-risk growth companies when Albanese and Chalmers are going to take almost half the upside while wearing none of the downside? Rather than helping younger generations, the highest CGT rate in the developed world will hammer them. And it is a double whammy because the many early-stage companies that have historically employed 20- and 30-somethings will now consider moving overseas. Their investors will simply not want to trade away half of their upside to the public oligarchs. If you allocated $10,000 to bitcoin after the March 2020 pandemic shock – which many young punters did, and which would now be worth approximately $92,000 – the new CGT regime imposes vastly higher amounts of tax. A self-funded retiree on the tax-free threshold would go from paying nothing to almost $24,000. Somebody earning between $18,000 and $45,000 a year would see their tax bill jump from $7400 to $23,900 – a 222 per cent increase. Those in the $45,000 to $190,000-plus tax brackets would have their bill rise by 93 per cent. Since the new CGT regime is, by definition, much more costly on higher-growth investments, it will punish younger investors who have much greater risk appetites and lower average incomes. afr.com/markets/equity…
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@ballsmeep How many times have they been saying this? Is the problem is with their deposit- just cannot extract at cost?
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@derekquick1 2045... Mkt will crash then boom and crash again?
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The Uranium & Nuclear squeeze is coming!
Goldman Sachs has increased their projected long term uranium deficit forecast again to 2.332 BILLION lb deficit by 2045 as SMR commercialization & global nuclear expansion accelerate.
$NNE $LEU $UEC $UUUU $SMR $OKLO
According to a new Cailian Press report covering Goldman Sachs global nuclear research Goldman now projects
• 46GW of global SMR deployment by 2045
• SMRs adding roughly 62 million lbs of additional uranium demand
• Structural uranium shortages persisting for decades
• China has 39 reactors under construction, most in the world
• The U.S., Europe, Japan, and Canada are extending reactor lives and accelerating nuclear projects
• Long term uranium contract pricing continues moving higher
• AI power demand is forcing a major rethink around nuclear baseload power
The uranium market is tiny.
If utilities begin panic contracting into a structural long duration deficit while AI simultaneously drives nuclear demand higher, the move could become violent especially with @sprott physical uraium trust buying & holding 2 years worth of U.S. reactor demand of physical uranium!
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@CoffeeStocksGuy Most of the companies are still losing money with no signs of positive eps
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Nuclear is just getting destroyed
$URAA down 46% from highs.
In January 2026, the DOE committed $2.7 billion to domestic uranium enrichment, followed by $800 million to TVA and Holtec for SMR deployment in December 2025, and a $1 billion loan to restart a Pennsylvania nuclear plant.
The government also struck an $80 billion partnership with Westinghouse, Brookfield, and Cameco in October 2025 to deploy AP1000 and AP300 reactor fleets, while $META signed a 20-year PPA for 2,176 MWe and agreed to fund two TerraPower Natrium reactors in January 2026.
Underpinning all of this, Trump’s May 2025 executive orders set a target of quadrupling US nuclear capacity from 100 GWe to 400 GWe by 2050 , with AI data centre power demand acting as the primary commercial accelerant throughout.
Is the turnaround coming soon?
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Many uranium/nuclear energy stocks are now approaching 8-10 month lows.
The selloff in this sector continues despite positive sentiment coming from the White House.
Can’t help but think we’re approaching a bottom in this sector.
Very interested, but not sure how to play it. 🤔
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@mineralsmindset Few??? Old media - I still remember when AFR did a liftout focused on lithium at the top of the last market peak- some hedge fund probably paid AFR to dump to retail bag holders
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"Lithium is now one of the few commodities where prices are actually going up..."
“You’ve got demand growing, two major sources of supply disrupted in China and Zimbabwe, and a lot of projects that have been shuttered or curtailed in the last down cycle that are yet to be switched back on. So it’s a very positive set-up [for #lithium]." =Canaccord Genuity’s Reg Spencer.
Spodumene now trading at US$2960/tonne according to S&P Global Platts. 👇 The highest level since August 2023.
afr.com/markets/commod…
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@WarrenVsCCP First time I went to USA ...could not believe what a shit hole parts of the cities are- thousands of homeless shitting in the streets high on drugs, being told not to walk at night in the street as it was dangerous. But overseas we rarely see how bad it is in the USA
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A rural family in China 🇨🇳 sits together for dinner.
These are the scenes CCP 🇨🇳 propaganda rarely shows the world.
They prefer glossy skyscrapers, high-speed trains, and staged nationalism — not the everyday struggles of ordinary people in the countryside.
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@SwissKnifeInv EPS is falling.. hard to be too bullish on narrative
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$BABA in 2026:
$158 → $117 → $145 → $130
In 90 days.
The stock is going to chop you to pieces until it decides to go.
Then it'll move 40% and you'll wonder how you missed it.
This is the cost of admission.
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@RebellioMarket Asians know that the best food is found on the streets - not in high end restaurants
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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was spotted in Beijing enjoying simple street food noodles like an ordinary traveler.
One of the most powerful figures in AI and technology… sitting down quietly for a local meal in the middle of the city.
No luxury restaurant. No private dining room. Just authentic Beijing street food, great atmosphere, and a bowl of noodles that honestly looked incredible.
Sometimes the people building the future still appreciate the simplest moments in life. 🍜
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No secret they were low on cash after too many setbacks. But if they are going to fk us over with more dilution anyway might as well go big 😀 $pen #uranium
Mr. Goat 🐐@mountaingoat672
@ballsmeep Did you hold out? There it is $0.35 raise
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@DavidPocock @albomp and friends knew about this and continued to gaslight the nation!
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The PM continues to echo the gas industry’s lines that tax on offshore gas (PRRT) will go up over time, but the budget papers revised the revenue for this year DOWN and show revenue from the tax will be LOWER in 2029-30 than it is today 🤯
sbs.com.au/news/article/a…
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@ABaceolive @cjoye No it's a rich people death tax?... Poor people don't have discretionary trust? Calling it a death tax implies it affects everyone?
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ALBO’S DEATH TAX BY STEALTH… Exactly … it’s a death tax by stealth. New testamentary discretionary trusts in wills (post-12 May 2026) now face a 30% minimum tax floor from 2028. Existing ones are grandfathered, but this guts flexible estate planning, income splitting for families, and multigenerational wealth protection. Classic Albanese: punish success and legacy while calling it ‘fairness’. Urgent wills review for anyone planning ahead.
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The Albanese government has blindsided the financial sector with a surprise “death tax” on wills and estates, triggering urgent calls for clarification from wealth advisers.
Under new budget measures, family trusts are set to be hit with a minimum 30 per cent tax rate. The new rule will also apply to the most common form of estate planning trust: the Testamentary Discretionary Trust.
theaustralian.com.au/wealth/budget-…
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🚨 THE MOST BULLISH SIGN! 🚨
Philip Morris $PM is at a new all-time high.
Ten years ago, the company announced it was going to kill its own business. It would replace cigarettes with smoke-free products. Investors thought they'd lost their minds.
Today, 40% of revenue is smoke-free. ZYN and IQOS are growing 20%+ a year. Each smoke-free pack brings in 2.5 times the revenue of a cigarette.
The boring tobacco stock that everyone wrote off just made a new high.
The companies that survive the next decade are the ones willing to destroy their best product before someone else does.
#IBDPartner
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@PeteWargent Status quo liberals supporting corps while trying to appeal to conservatives... Liberals are dead man walking
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‘Begin to believe again’: Taylor’s $22.5b tax appeal to voters
afr.com/politics/feder…
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@FinancialReview Last 2 decades of 50% CGT and NG didn't move capital to businesses... Will keeping it change this?
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Australia needs a tax system that moves capital into the businesses that will pay tomorrow’s wages, not away from them. ebx.sh/cyF0Ze
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@tompanos Congrats... There will be endless apartments for young people to buy... No one will sell housing
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Young Australians, the market may finally be shifting in your favour.
Fear is rising, supply is growing, and buyers could regain negotiating power.
The winners will be those prepared before confidence returns.
#PropertyMarket #FirstHomeBuyer #AustralianProperty
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Australia’s housing market is starting to crack under higher rates.
New home lending fell 3.8% in the March quarter of 2026, with weakness across owner occupiers, investors and first-home buyers.
Investor demand will start to fall further I reckon.
#ausbiz #property #interestrates #housingmarket
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