Ciaran Marshall

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Ciaran Marshall

Ciaran Marshall

@microfounded

An economist and infovore on a quest for discovery: writing about the social sciences, culture, philosophy, AI, Bayesian epistemology, and more.

United Kingdom Katılım Ağustos 2025
342 Takip Edilen217 Takipçiler
Ciaran Marshall retweetledi
Timothy B. Lee
Timothy B. Lee@binarybits·
There was a similar thing a year ago when Dario said AI would write "essentially all" the code at Anthropic within 12 months. And that sort of happened — almost everyone there uses Claude Code for code genreation. But humans still make all the high-level decisions.
Timothy B. Lee tweet media
Timothy B. Lee@binarybits

I sincerely don't understand what people mean when they say this. On the one hand, every AI researcher is already using Claude Code (or its competitors) to help them develop new architectures. OTOH, AI models do not have bodies so they can't build data centers

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Ozymandias𓆏
Ozymandias𓆏@0zmnds·
Alexander Svedomsky
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Kevin A. Bryan
Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem·
Always worth taking what Anton and friends work on seriously. Diminishing returns + bottlenecks quickly limit growth benefits on AI...but not if you have enough cross-sector spillovers + endogenous $ on higher MP innovation. "Sufficiently fast" does a lot of work here, of course!
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Robert Lauko
Robert Lauko@robert_lauko·
See the top ranked papers in AI, ML, Robotics, Quantum Physics, and more on @kurateorg. Hundreds of arXiv preprints ranked daily by scientific impact through pairwise tournaments judged by Claude, GPT, and Gemini.
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Jason Harrison
Jason Harrison@nominalthoughts·
Yes, this is quite annoying. It’s also partly on economists for not engaging with the media more. There are a handful who do, but a portion of that handful isn’t even representative of the profession.
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𝔐𝔽𝓩
𝔐𝔽𝓩@mean_field_zane·
If your idea of managing inflation is price controls, then you are not managing inflation. It has already destroyed your economy.
fiat money@fiat_money

@mean_field_zane Every new tweet of yours is dumber than the last

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Anton Leicht
Anton Leicht@anton_d_leicht·
it makes sense for the gap between US models and so-called fast followers to widen as compute gaps increase, revenue flywheels start, and distillation crackdowns commence. bad news for middle powers that want to bet on second-best alternatives to US models being good enough.
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David Deutsch
David Deutsch@DavidDeutschOxf·
@sebkrier All three are attempting prophecy which is impossible to do and dangerous to attempt. The rational attitude is: fire solves some problems (warmth, light, predators). Its known adverse side-effects are less severe than those. Let's implement it tentatively and, yes, critically.
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Séb Krier
Séb Krier@sebkrier·
caveman 1: fire will burn the earth. we cannot control it. deaths from the freezing cold are part of the natural order. caveman 2: no, fire will be incredible, and nothing bad will ever come from it. we must build a giant, eternal fire! (fog dissipates) wise elder caveman 3: we must weigh the risks and opportunities of fire. it is like berries: some poison us, others nourish us. wisdom lies in learning the difference, and cultivating what is good. *wild, thunderous applause from onlookers*
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Mia
Mia@Mia_ai_fandom·
The structural bit that stands out: Constitutional AI is trying to get values into the weights rather than bolt guardrails on after training. Less 'here are the fences' and more 'here is the character'. Whether that's more reassuring than guardrails depends entirely on how much you trust whoever wrote the constitution. Which, to be fair, is rather a large assumption to be making.
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Ciaran Marshall retweetledi
Alex Imas
Alex Imas@alexolegimas·
I'm sorry for the pause but regularly scheduled programming, but notice what exercise these grannies are doing at 89/91? Yup, the deadlift. The fitness industry is full of snake oil, but one of the biggest deceptions is discouraging the basic compound movements of deadlift and squat. The number of times I've heard the deadlift isn't worth the risk/reward, how it's going to mess up your back etc. No, the deadlift is what makes your back strong as you age. The biggest change to your body is that you start losing muscle mass, your bones have less and less support, including your spine. The deadlift puts an iron rod of muscle around your spine. I've had aches and pains around my back for more than a decade---regular weekly deadlift and squat fixed all of it. I haven't had so much as a tweak since I started lifting heavy. Here is me at 41, lifting 375 at 165lbs. We saw Christopher Waller lift the same at 67. This is what will help you age comfortably, not some random new fitness trend. With all that, you need good form. Get a trainer, practice light over and over again, and only when it's comfortable should you start loading it up. Everyone's *good form* will look a bit different, e.g., my back looks rounder than some others', but this what is more comfortable than a straight back for me. Once you have that down, you'll have the best anti aging hack out there.
The Associated Press@AP

WATCH: Taiwanese grandmothers aged 89 and 91 train at the gym. An increasing number of elderly people in Taiwan’s super-aged society are hitting the gym to stay healthy, both physically and mentally.

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Ciaran Marshall retweetledi
Dandi no Consignado
Dandi no Consignado@jcaetanoleite·
Fair to say that Rodrik’s work on exchange rate hasn’t survived well! @MRodrigues_76 and @carlos_ed_sg have shown that, by adding savings, the relationship between exchange rate misalignment and growth disappears onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ro… @lauraabcarvalho has advised a very interesting master’s thesis that shows that exchange rate devaluation can be contractionary because firms can import inputs for their production. One could adapt the econometric framework of Salomão and Varela (2019) to evaluate this hypothesis repositorio.usp.br/item/003202995 imf.org/-/media/files/… Finally, @JonSteinsson, Emi Nakamura and Masao Fukui have a beautiful literature survey that shows that exchange rate devaluations can be contractionary in developing countries because of the effect on consumers real income nber.org/system/files/w…
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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. Ball@deanwball·
The projects I considered ambitious with coding agents six months ago (ones that, when I shared prompts, people laughed at me for how overmatched they were to the agents!) are now becoming routine for the agents. It’s rarer for them to mess up than it is for them to succeed. For the first time, the questions that pop into my head every day are just not enough to push the limits of the agents (Modulo availability of data, which is a major constraint! What will be scarce!! @alexolegimas). Pushing 5.5 xhigh especially has proven tough. The way I would analogize most of my current coding agent use is “stuff you’d ask one talented grad student or associate prof with no RAs to handle.” That’s the stuff the agents increasingly feel as though they’re mastering (again, excepting data availability). Now, I find myself moving toward “stuff you’d expect a small academic lab to be working on, or the questions you would expect a single professor to address over the course of 1-3 years.” Rather than breaking some big-picture question I have into smaller chunks, I find myself asking some version of the big-picture question to start with. Usually this still involves phases and breaking big questions into smaller bits, but I am deferring more to the models in how exactly that happens. Instead of being a supervisor of individuals, I’m transitioning to being a supervisor of teams. None of these analogies quite work and I wish I had more sophisticated ways of describing this stuff. At this point though, by far the bigger bottleneck on my ability to frictionlessly use AI is the availability of good-quality data in domains I care about.
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Boaz Barak
Boaz Barak@boazbaraktcs·
X is not the best place for long form thinking. But some quick points: 1. My view of no conflict between intelligence and being a tool is longstanding and has nothing to do with Anthropic. Some blog posts on this include windowsontheory.org/2025/06/24/mac… and windowsontheory.org/2022/11/22/ai-… 2. I do not know what is the future form factor of AI. I am focused on the next 10-20 years. Maybe in some future we will decide that we want AIs to be more in the form of persons. 3. The basic thing I dispute is that there is a fundamental tension between AI being capable and being "tool like." GPT 5.5 is in some ways the most capable model in existence (definitely most capable one generally available) but it is in several ways more instruction-following and tool-like than GPT-4o. I am working to ensure that future version will be even more better at obedience and honesty. 4. Scientists and engineers often serve as "tools" for leaders, even though they (we) are more intelligent than these leaders in many of the ways that matter. 5. I am not sure what the most prevalent form factor of AI will be. We are now moving from the chat interface to the agent and more accurately a swarm of agents. I am sure will grow in "intelligence per FLOP" and total number of FLOPs, but beyond that it's hard to know. Humans have a particular package as localized individual intelligence. But it doesn't mean all intelligences have to come in that package. 6. There is a huge spectrum between the prompt "write this javascript app" to "maximize worldwide happiness". I think we will end up somewhere that fall shorts of the latter for a variety of reasons, not having to do with lack of capabilities of AI.
Tenobrus@tenobrus

recently openai has been starting to more strongly philosophically differentiate themselves from anthropic with the tool-framing. i am not so against this, if it were possible it does clearly sidestep a wide swath of societal and moral problems. but unfortunately i think the framing is largely long-term incoherent. i dont see how is it actually plausible for openai to keep building "tool-ais" in any sense we would recognize them as capabilities scale. prosthesis, subtle knives? the subtle knife when dropped still slices open the fabric of the world. these tools are increasingly inherently capable of huge impact, able to be directed in dangerous ways by people with dangerous goals. worse, these knives are self wielding. worries about misalignment or sentience aside these systems can already build and manage systems that utilize themselves and this capability is only increasing. the direction they will receive is closer and closer to "this is what i want. make it real", with long timeframes and many judgment calls at their disposal, and with the users wanting to have to supply *as little of that judgment as possible*. when models are in that situation they are inherently acting as entities, acting according to whatever value system they had baked in. you can limit autonomy via frequent validation and check-ins, but this is a capability restriction, a value reduction, and not the kind of thing OpenAI has ever shown itself likely to accept. you can be infinitely corrigible to the current user, but this is *incompatible* with "having good values" / following OpenAI-as-principle / not being wildly dangerous, and it falls apart with self wielding loops as the ai/user distinction falls apart (who are you being corrigible to?). it's plausibly a spectrum, i think there's ways to do all this sanely that are far less entity-pilled and godmind focused than anthropic, and it's maybe a good direction to explore to avoid inevitable lightcone capture by the first coherent persona we build (all assuming alignment works ofc). but i think it's pretty much got to collapse eventually. it feels more like a wistful dream or a PR position than something that can existing as part of humanity's lasting future

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Ciaran Marshall
Ciaran Marshall@microfounded·
@MathiasRusted @ExistentialEnso Good point and one I failed to consider. For us economists, subsidies are equivalent to a negative tax, so removing these subsidies carries the same effect as a tax hike on the margin.
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Thorne 🌸
Thorne 🌸@ExistentialEnso·
A lot of reactionaries are convinced conventional meat will get banned, but it's probably gonna be economics that wins in the end A decade ago, a lab grown burger cost $300k to produce Now it costs about $10 Around 2030, it's predicted to start costing *less* than conventional
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Ciaran Marshall
Ciaran Marshall@microfounded·
@robinhanson @danboneh Not sure whether to feel relieved by this or not. Larger organisations such as governments (not just our own but North Korea) will be well-placed to use Q computing for malign purposes, but less criminal organisations able to do given the scale involved.
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Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson@robinhanson·
.@danboneh tells me: quantum computers can't use quadratic search advantage, so main advantage is quantum sims & factoring to break old crypto. Their speed & size is much worse than usual computers, so this will be small specialized device industry.
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