@mikegalsworthy @visegrad24 Guessing Iceland and Montenegro could end up joining at the same time?
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Mike Auld
34.7K posts
Mike Auld
@mikeinsdevon
Nothing much going on here - just trying to make sense of everything and stay reasonably sane in the process :-) Blocked by @georgegalloway among others
Katılım Temmuz 2012
1K Takip Edilen784 Takipçiler
@visegrad24 I wrote a Substack on all of this.
And polling in Iceland is now pro-EU too.
🇮🇸🇪🇺
See —> open.substack.com/pub/mikegalswo…
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4 countries are candidates for becoming EU member states.
Iceland could be next to join that group as they are preparing a referendum for 2027
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Mike Auld retweetledi
What’s interesting to me about British media culture, specifically news media, and I’ve said it before. I don’t feel like the 70% of people who despise the establishment get much of a showing, unless they also happen to ardently anti-immigrant, but otherwise pro-capital.
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl
A good way of thinking about British politics today: A status quo where so many people have felt so unhappy with so many different parts of the state for such a long time isn't ultimately sustainable.
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Mike Auld retweetledi
Mike Auld retweetledi
Anyone using a self-service till in a supermarket will be given a 10% discount off their shopping.
#Manicfesto
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@indy_swim Serious question - why would it matter even if she was gay? I thought the culture warriors were all for "LGB without the T", or was that just an excuse to justify all the anti-trans crap?
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Of course it was inevitable that they'd bring up the campervan crap, Jimmy Krankie jokes and the bizarre conspiracy theory that Nicola is gay
British nationalists and Alba cult members are so predictable 😂😂😂
Sky News@SkyNews
Scotland's former first minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced she has split from her husband, Peter Murrell. Read more: trib.al/ePNqyzW 📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube
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@UK_Lad1275 @IrnBruXtra555 Don't think I'd call the English "Celtic", certainly not in a linguistic or cultural way.
Agreed re "no single Celtic culture, language or identity" as each Celtic nation has its own. I guess it's like treating say the Anglosphere as one unit.
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Mike Auld retweetledi
Brexit means Brexit and the mere suggestion of a second referendum has people foaming at the mouth
But yet our democratically elected PM should step down after 6 months because some bigots signed a petition & a megalomaniac billionaire in the US doesn’t like him?
Strange world
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@YesCornwall @JTKernowek It would need to expand significantly to hit the government's 500k minimum population. Absorbing South Hams and West Devon would still leave it about 80k short.
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@JTKernowek Devon will become a unitary but Plymouth and Torbay are separate. Plymouth might need to expand its borders to meet the government’s criteria so I expect they’re already eyeing up Saltash and Torpoint
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If Devon gets left behind in devolved funding, it’ll be because you assumed we’d go along with whatever you decide.
You could have spent this time getting a deal with Somerset and Dorset. We’re not to blame for your arrogance and refusal to accept our national minority status.
Devon Chamber of Commerce@Chamber_Devon
We call upon politicians from all sides across the region to do whatever it takes to make this happen. Government has made it clear that this is the only way priority funding will be allocated, and we simply cannot be left behind again - 🗣️@stuartelford
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Mike Auld retweetledi
Since becoming a Member of Parliament, two of my Parliamentary colleagues have been murdered. The current atmosphere being stoked up by malicious actors risks more lives being lost.
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@weegeedutchie Possible.
Normally second elections don't produce massively different results. But in a FPTP election with a lot of three- and four-way contests it wouldn't take much.
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@weegeedutchie Electoral Calculus has slightly different numbers (used numbers from this poll + their Scotland-only one from last month). But either way looks ungovernable.
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Mike Auld retweetledi
@KEdge23 @LeftieStats @BeaufortLtd Ungovernable on those numbers
Ref + Con: 48 seats
Lab + Plaid + LD: 48 seats
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@LeftieStats @BeaufortLtd Reform and Conservatives coalition in Wales?
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🏴 Senedd voting intention (+@LeftieStats estimate):
🟥 LAB 27% (-9), 31 seats
🟪 REF 24% (+23), 31 seats
🟦 CON 18% (-7), 17 seats
🟩 PC 17% (-4), 16 seats
🟧 LD 6% (+2), 1 seat
🟩 GRN 6% (+2), 0 seats
Polling via @BeaufortLtd, 4-24 Nov (+/- vs 2021)
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@indy_swim @FindoutnowUK Usual health warnings re subsamples but those numbers not massively different to last month's full poll
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Scotland vote share
🟨 SNP - 36%
🟥 Lab - 18%
🟪 Reform - 15%
🟧 LD - 12%
🟦 Con - 10%
🟩 Green - 7%
⬜️ Other - 3%
Scotland seats
🟨 SNP - 48 (+39)
🟧 LD - 6 (+1)
🟦 Con - 2 (-4)
🟥 Lab - 1 (-36)
Via Scottish sub sample of @FindoutnowUK poll, 8 Jan
Find Out Now@FindoutnowUK
Find Out Now voting intention: 🔴 Labour: 25% (-1) 🟦 Reform UK: 25% (-) 🔵 Conservatives: 20% (-3) 🟢 Greens: 11% (+2) 🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-) Changes from 11th December [Find Out Now, 8th January, N=2,076]
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@colegate_steven @LeftieStats @FindoutnowUK Tories must be pretty close to their core vote by now surely?
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@LeftieStats @FindoutnowUK Once Tory voters see what's happening you can add their votes to Reform too.
Also chances are Labour will lose 10% of their vote to independents.
Bye bye two party system.
Bye bye globalism.
Bye bye mass immigration.
Bye bye economic ruin.
Hello common sense.
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🇬🇧 #GE2029 polling (+@LeftieStats estimate):
🟪 REF 25% (-), 209 seats
🟥 LAB 25% (-1), 203 seats
🟦 CON 20% (-3), 82 seats
🟧 LD 11% (-), 75 seats
🟩 GRN 11% (+2), 6 seats
🟨 SNP 3% (-), 37 seats
Poll via @FindoutnowUK, 8 Jan (+/- vs 11 Dec)
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@UpTheGun86 @LeftieStats @FindoutnowUK Probably. Plus Greens likely to put serious effort into 10-12 seats at most. But then consensus was good polling numbers wouldn't hold last year...
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@LeftieStats @FindoutnowUK That green vote won’t hold if this becomes an actual reality.
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@DontForgetJeff @LeftieStats @FindoutnowUK On anything like those numbers that might be the most likely outcome
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