Mitch Cooney
509 posts

Mitch Cooney
@mitchcooney
currently @paladincap / former @stepstonevc



Welcome Christian Keil to a16z's American Dynamism team. Today he asks, “If you had just five minutes to tell a Founding Father about the last 250 years in America, what would you say?” Read his answer: a16z.news/p/technology-i… @pronounced_kyle

In 1908, 253 American automobile manufacturers competed for the market. By 1929, just 44 remained. The assembly line didn’t just change how cars were made. It changed who got to make them. Ford’s Highland Park plant, operational in 1913, slashed the time to build a Model T from 12 hours to 93 minutes. That 90% productivity gain restructured an entire industry. Manufacturers who couldn’t match Ford’s efficiency faced a simple choice : adapt or exit. The consolidation was swift. Between 1908 & 1929, 83% of automakers vanished. Some merged. Most failed. The survivors shared a common trait : they adopted Ford’s methods. General Motors, Chrysler & the handful of remaining independents all built assembly lines. An analogous revolution is happening in software, with important differences. AI coding assistants now reduce development time by 55-81%. The curve is familiar. Ford took six years to achieve 90% time reduction. AI coding tools reached 81% in five. The slopes are nearly identical. What happened to auto industry employment? It grew. Massively. In 1910, US auto plants employed 76,000 workers. By 1929, that number reached 471,0004. Mass production created mass consumption, & mass consumption demanded more workers. The real explosion came from second-order effects. By 1929, for every one person building a car, seven others had a job because that car existed. Dealerships, service stations, repair shops & supply chains employed nearly 4 million people. The industry didn’t just create more manufacturing jobs; it spawned an entirely new economy of “enablers” that was 8x larger than the core manufacturing base. The software industry will follow a different pattern. In autos, capital intensity consolidated power. It’s the opposite in the world of AI. AI data centers, the assembly lines of software, enable hundreds of millions of developers to build software as if they had the capabilities of an automobile behemoth. Any developer can access state-of-the-art models with a laptop & a credit card. Easier software creation means more software. More software means more developers, not fewer. We should expect many thousands of new businesses each year as a result, & a similar explosion in second-order jobs. tomtunguz.com/the-model-t-co…













