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@ockhams @erikfransen 😂

@erikfransen Model 911 blijft voor mij de enige Porsche.

Porsche zijn geweldige auto's. Ik heb er vier zelf gehad. Geen enkele EV. Ze zijn slechts een klein beetje langzamer dan een Tesla. Het infotainment is bijna net zo goed als bij Chinese auto's, en ze kosten slechts evenveel als een klein appartement in Griekenland of Spanje. @Porsche moet zich herpakken, want premium prijzen moeten premium kwaliteit leveren ook.

Shares of Brazilian energy giant Petrobras continue their impressive uptrend and breakout. Highest daily and weekly close in 5+ years 🔥🇧🇷 $PBR

@ekwufinance Most people don't get this as usual. Clueless...

Markets are delusional we’ve already lost: - ~30% of fertilizers - ~20% of LNG - ~14% of oil - ~30% of helium Any one of these on its own would be enough to trigger a crisis. Together, they form a systemic shock that risks pulling the global economy into a serious recession. Because these aren’t isolated commodities.... they sit at the core of entire production chains: Petrochemicals -> fertilizer -> food production Petrochemicals -> mining (copper, uranium, nickel) Petrochemicals -> plastics -> cars, electronics Petrochemicals -> drugs, rubber, textiles Helium -> semiconductors / AI chips Gas -> power generation Diesel -> transportation So this isn’t just an energy problem... it’s a full-spectrum supply shock hitting food, industry, tech, transportation and power at the same time. Without flows from Hormuz, the system doesn’t just slow down, it starts to break. And there is no policy tool that can replace missing physical supply.

Yes because this commodity cycle will be bigger.

@FinanceFilosoof Als binnen 2-3 weken er niets door komt is het in de EU alle hens aan dek. Force majeure is al paar weken een populair gezegde aan het worden in de bedrijfswereld.

Als Hormuz nog twee maanden stil ligt gaat Azië zijn fabrieken, transport en economische activiteit afschakelen. Gevolgen zullen dan nog kwartalen voelbaar zijn op de economie.

🚨 *HASSETT: HORMUZ CAN BE OPENED WITHIN TWO MONTHS

BREAKING: European airports are facing 'systemic' jet fuel shortages 'within three weeks' if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened, according to Financial Times report.

@ResetTime2030 In at avg. 0.32, 2nd biggest stock holding 💪

$RDS.V #Gold Breaking out . Clear buyout target this bull cycle. $2+shr is my first target GL

JUST IN: 🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company says 230 oil tankers are loaded and ready, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Rarely post anything here anymore on X but this is a nice one, Platt's PE index. Never happened before and + 400€/t in one week. #Inflation #oil And it's not over yet, force majeures are coming to a place near you.

I’m beginning to understand how Trump went bankrupt so many times.

JUST IN - No oil tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since yesterday's ceasefire, and the four ships that have passed are all dry cargo carriers, data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler shows — NYT

BREAKING: Iran has told mediators it will be limiting the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz to around 12 per day and impose tolls under the ceasefire, per WSJ. This is a sharp reversal from last night's statements from President Trump claiming a "complete opening" of the Strait of Hormuz. Today, just 4 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the fewest of any day in April so far. The US is still pushing publicly for a free and open strait, but Iran is "not showing a willingness to loosen its grip." Oil prices are back above $95/barrel.

BREAKING: Explosions just hit Iran’s Lavan oil refinery and Sirri Island. Iranian state media described it as an attack by enemies. No perpetrator has claimed responsibility. The cause is officially unclear. The timing is not. The ceasefire is less than 24 hours old. Both sides have now violated it. On the Iranian side, IRGC provincial commands launched missiles at Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar within thirty minutes of the announcement. The UAE’s national emergency authority issued a live alert today confirming air defence systems are responding to an active missile threat. Kuwait absorbed the heaviest strikes of the entire war. Cluster munitions from Iranian ballistic missiles hit Beersheba, injuring two teenagers. Iran’s own Council stated the ceasefire does not signify the termination of the war. On the other side, explosions struck Lavan and Sirri. These are not random targets. During the Iran-Iraq War, when Kharg Island was damaged, Iran shifted its oil exports to Lavan and Sirri as backup terminals. The US struck military targets on Kharg on March 13 and again on April 7, deliberately sparing the oil infrastructure. Sirri and Lavan are the contingency nodes in Iran’s export chain. If they are damaged, the redundancy that kept Iranian oil flowing after Kharg is degraded. Whoever struck these facilities understood the architecture of Iran’s export network and targeted the failover, not the primary. The molecule crisis deepens from this direction too. Sirri Island hosts Iranian Offshore Oil Company development projects, NGL processing, and crude production feeding the same export infrastructure that the ghost fleet uses to deliver 1.22 million barrels per day to Chinese teapot refineries. Lavan refinery processes crude from the surrounding fields for domestic consumption and export. Both are energy molecules. Both are now burning. The structural pattern from June 2025 is repeating with surgical precision. The Twelve-Day War produced a ceasefire. Both sides violated it within hours. The ceasefire held on paper for eight months while violations accumulated underneath. Then the war resumed on February 28 with the strikes that killed Ali Khamenei. The five-stage cycle is: war, ceasefire, violations, accumulation, resumption. We are in stage three. The question is how long stage four lasts before the cycle completes. Trump declared total and complete victory and said Iran’s uranium will be perfectly taken care of. Netanyahu said Israel supports the ceasefire but it does not include Lebanon. Pakistan said it includes Lebanon and everywhere. Oman said there are no Hormuz tolls. Iran legislated the tolls. The IRGC is firing missiles at allied nations. And now oil facilities are exploding on Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf. This is not a ceasefire. It is a breathing interval between rounds of a conflict that neither side can end and neither side can win. The United States can destroy Iran’s above-ground infrastructure but cannot reach the centrifuges beneath Fordow. Iran can close Hormuz and fire at Gulf states but cannot feed its own population or stabilise its currency. The ceasefire does not resolve this structural deadlock. It pauses it. And the pause is already fracturing from both ends simultaneously. Islamabad is in two days. The explosions at Sirri suggest that whatever is discussed on Friday will be negotiated over the sound of detonations. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

IMF data shows that the National Bank of Poland increased its #gold reserves by 11 tonnes in March. This lifts its YTD net purchases to 31 tonnes, and total gold holdings to 582 tonnes.

Archives : En 1969, les américains faisaient du buggy sur la lune. Mais malheureusement on arrive pas à recommencer car la technologie a été perdue 😂 🤡

Here's a few important points before I go to sleep: 1. Iran won the war. The terms of the ceasefire they shared give them control of the Strait of Hormuz, charging $2M per ship, pocketing $100 Billion a year. Those numbers are wild! And on top of it, the ceasefire proposal includes the lifting of all sanctions Remember, one could say Iran has been in a state of war for decades due to the crippling American sanctions, and now this is all coming to an end 2. Trump did the right thing pulling out, not listening to the lunatic war mongers around him, and not listening to anyone in the Israeli lobby that may have wanted the war the continue. As I said earlier today, a good leader knows when to walk away 3. I am not surprised we have a deal, I've mentioned it all day, as Trump's posts made it obvious to me he was pressuring Iran for some final concessions before accepting his off-ramp 4. Trump will twist this into a win, and his diehard supporters will believe him. This is a GOOD thing, as Trump no longer needs to militarily try to get a 'win'. As I've said earlier in the day, Trump can (and just did) create his own offramp. 5. The Middle East will never look the same. I expect the Gulf to gradually normalize relations again with Iran, which started after Israel's strike on Qatar. Also the balance of power will drastically shift away from Israel, and this may have massive positive implications on Lebanon, Syria, and possibly even Palestine. 6. China is the BIGGEST winner, as Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz means China is indirectly controlling it 7. Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz is a generational strategic loss for the U.S., and a risk to the dollar dominance (Iran can chip away at the Petrodollar) 8. Hezbollah will come out stronger from all this, possibly more powerful than it has been in decades (unless the deal involves Iran disbanding their proxy network) 9. I'm exhausted and need to sleep. Below there's some more info on my stance over the past 24 hours, as well as how we broke the story of a ceasefire almost an hour before any media outlet and Trump's post. Good night everyone!

PREDICTION: Hegseth is fired before the end of the month. He will be the scapegoat for the humiliating U.S. military failure we just witnessed, as the Strait of Hormuz reverts to Iranian control, making Iran a world power with uncontested control over the most important chokepoint in the world.

BREAKING: WTI crashed nine percent in thirty minutes. S&P futures jumped over one percent. Oil fell to $96. The ceasefire is real. The relief is real. And the molecule crisis did not move a single angstrom. President Trump suspended attacks for two weeks. Iran accepted through its Supreme National Security Council with Mojtaba Khamenei’s explicit approval. Hormuz reopens for safe passage under Iranian military coordination. Pakistan mediated. China applied last-minute pressure. Vance is expected to lead the US delegation to Islamabad on Friday. Trump called Iran’s 10-point proposal a workable basis for negotiation and said the United States has already met and exceeded all military objectives. That last sentence is the one the market should be reading most carefully. In 39 days, the campaign dismantled over 130 Iranian air defence systems. It rendered inoperable three petrochemical complexes responsible for 85 percent of Iran’s weapons-chemistry exports. It struck Kharg Island, destroyed transport aircraft and dozens of helicopters, severed ten railway bridges in a single day, killed the IRGC’s intelligence chief, and degraded Iran’s ballistic missile production to what the IDF called one of the few remaining facilities. The military architecture that allowed Iran to threaten the region with missile strikes, drone attacks on allied oil refineries, and Hormuz closure has been structurally reduced. That is not a pause in escalation. That is an accomplished fact. The ceasefire preserves those gains. Iran gets a breathing window and the ability to declare victory on state television. The United States gets Hormuz reopened, oil prices falling, and a negotiating table in Islamabad where it sits with every card already played by the other side. The IRGC’s threat to deprive the region of oil and gas for years was credible when Hormuz was closed. It is less credible now that they agreed to reopen it under diplomatic pressure from Pakistan and China, neither of which will endorse a second closure. But here is what the nine percent oil drop does not fix. Asaluyeh is rubble. Mahshahr is rubble. The Shiraz nitric acid plant is rubble. The railway bridges that would carry reconstruction equipment to those sites are collapsed. The steel mills that would produce structural material for rebuilding are damaged. The heat exchangers required to restart cryogenic processing are manufactured by five companies with 18 to 36 month lead times. The force majeures across ten countries have recorded zero restarts. Dow’s CEO said petrochemicals will be last in the transit queue even after the strait reopens. C&EN says the war will debilitate petrochemicals for the rest of 2026 at minimum. Oil flows through a chokepoint. Molecules flow through a cracker. The chokepoint just reopened. The crackers are destroyed. The market is celebrating the reopening of a pipe while the refinery at the end of that pipe no longer exists. The $34 paper-physical gap in Dated Brent will narrow. The physical premium on Dubai and Oman will ease. Shipping insurance will reprice. These are real, immediate, tradeable moves. But the polyethylene, the propylene, the ammonia, the methanol, and the helium that the global economy runs on are not produced by a strait. They are produced by facilities that take years to rebuild, and the ceasefire does not rebuild a single reactor. Trump achieved the military objectives. The strait is reopening. The negotiation begins Friday. The molecule deficit remains. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…