mf168

距离这轮牛市的起点已经过去两年了。既然没有出现明显牛顶，那么可以认为泡沫周期已经失效。 4年周期没有失效，只是不再表现为泡沫周期。 在幂率曲线上叠加4年周期，可以得到更直观的表现。可以认为，当前的4年周期正在表现为前期和后期向上，中期平缓。 我们当前处于平缓期的中点或者中后点。平缓期围绕10万到11万波动。 度过这个平缓期之后，是继续向上并衔接下一个周期。而由于幂率曲线曲率继续扩大，下一个周期连平缓期都几乎不存在，整体表现为向上。 也就是说渡过当前的平缓期之后，很可能就会开始喊了很久的永恒牛市。 整体表现为持续上涨。中间会有超级上涨和大幅下跌，看起来像是顶或者底，但其实都不是，持续时间都很短暂。 4年周期其实仍然存在，只不过表现的越来越不像周期。 这背后都是幂律曲线在起支配作用。 预计2026年中走出当前的平缓期。 当然，上述都是一种推演。

no, 'the old system' and the 'arbitrary monetary power, debasement, opacity, and forced trust' are actually the same thing. the insight of financial transformation is so right. But if it is right, you cannot come to the conclusion that the old system will still exist. It's a long way and it has not to be a way of battling and killing. But at the end the old system will disappear along with all the bad features that born with it.

Yes. All critics of @saylor should read this. Notwithstanding our not perfectly aligned discussion on exponential vs power law that I described in a recent article, I really appreciate his role and contribution to the Bitcoin network. His critics miss the point. Some of Bitcoin’s earliest supporters, including people like Hal Finney, did not necessarily see the traditional financial system as something that had to be destroyed outright. Their vision was more subtle and, in many ways, more powerful. Bitcoin would not simply exist outside the financial system as an isolated alternative. Over time, it could force the existing financial system to adapt to Bitcoin’s rules. In that sense, Bitcoin does not need to “defeat” banks, markets, or institutions in a dramatic final battle. It can bend them toward itself. This is the power of network systems. The traditional system may continue to exist, but increasingly it would have to settle, price, account, and store value in relation to Bitcoin. Its incentives would gradually be redirected. Its weaknesses would be exposed. Its inflationary assumptions would be challenged. Its trust-based structure would be pressured by a system built on verification, fixed money supply, transparency, and final settlement. This is an important point. Bitcoin’s ultimate fate may not be the disappearance of finance, but the transformation of finance. The old system is not necessarily the enemy in itself. The enemy is arbitrary monetary power, debasement, opacity, and forced trust. Bitcoin offers a different gravitational center. As it grows, the financial system may not vanish, but orbit around it.

打开月线看一看，基本上所有的主流币都在历史最低点了。这个时候还在讲什么暴跌的，通通可以拉黑。 我的逻辑是山寨季一定会到来。自然界偏爱连续，不喜欢孤立。只不过你对山寨的定义不要搞错。山寨币不是垃圾币，能称作alt coin的其实不多。 这个时候大量入手主流alt币种，应该会有很好的回报。

@saylor @Strategy and that's how we treat the bears 💪

The ₿eat Goes On.

@PANews 什么都不懂就敢写。月派息两次的会是在大获成功之后开的。

STRC跌破100美元面值，是比特币作为DAT资产步入成熟期必须趟过的深水区。 对于普通投资者而言，STRC脱锚是一记警钟。在加密市场，任何形式的“锚定”都不是绝对的，流动性永远是第一生存原则。

我去了 voice.com 原来是从铁头哥这儿买的。懂这个梗的点赞。哈哈哈哈哈哈哈

@AdamBLiv Can't believe it's just one year. Feels like I've been listening to your channel for a decade. Keep fighting, bro. The world needs both wisdom and enthusiasm.

Today is my 1 Year YouTube Anniversary! 390 videos. I averaged more than one per day! 42,500 subscribers. 4 million views. Not too bad for fighting against the gravity of a massive MSTR drawdown and a massive Bitcoin drawdown this entire time 🤣 The sentiment is turning, I can FEEL IT. This might be niche content now but it won't be for long as Bitcoin asserts itself over the incumbent monetary system :) Year 2 will be much better! I WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THE ORANGE GOSPEL OF BITCOIN TO THE MASSES. Subscribe to my channel here to JOIN the FIGHT: youtube.com/channel/UCJ6hZ…

@OffshoreHODL @saylor and the entire world.

One of the clearest ways to understand what Michael @Saylor has done with $MSTR is this: the battle starts in the mind. Before capital is raised, before bitcoin is bought, before markets recognize anything, there is first a decision about what is true and what is false. Saylor’s real edge was not just financial engineering. It was mental clarity. Most of the world still thinks inside the old framework: cash is safe inflation is normal treasury management means holding melting assets volatility is danger convention is wisdom Saylor looked at the same world and came to a different conclusion. He decided those common assumptions were not truth, but lies dressed up as prudence. He built Strategy around bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset, and the company explicitly says it uses equity, debt financings, and operating cash flow to accumulate bitcoin and to offer investors different forms of bitcoin exposure through its securities. So the deeper story is not merely that MSTR buys bitcoin. It is that Saylor rejected one mental model and replaced it with another. The old model says: “Protect yourself by holding dollars and staying conventional.” The new model says: “Protect yourself by anchoring in the hardest asset and structuring capital around it.” That is a battle of thought before it is a battle of finance. Saylor identified what he believed was a lie at the center of the system, then acted on what he believed was true. Transformation begins with renewed thinking, not outward effort alone. MSTR is the institutional expression of that conviction. The progression looks like this: Thought Fiat cash is not a safe store of value. Bitcoin is superior treasury property. Feeling Urgency, conviction, courage, willingness to endure criticism. Action Accumulate bitcoin. Raise capital. Build securities around the strategy. Educate the market. Habit Repeat the process over and over with discipline. Character A company and a leader known for clarity, consistency, and long-duration conviction. That is why Saylor stands out. Many executives see the same data, but they do not act because they have not won the battle in the mind. They are still governed by fear of looking foolish, fear of volatility, fear of opposition, and loyalty to inherited assumptions. Saylor seems to have done the opposite. He renewed the framework first, and the corporate actions followed. Not every thought deserves agreement. Some thoughts are distortions. Some are accusations. Some are old mental habits. In the MSTR/bitcoin context, many corporate leaders still accept thoughts like: “Bitcoin is too risky.” “Serious companies do not do this.” “You have to wait for universal approval.” “Preserving purchasing power with fiat is good enough.” Saylor’s approach suggests that he interrogated those thoughts rather than submitting to them. He seems to have asked: Is that actually true? Or is it just the consensus voice of a system that no longer deserves trust? That is where this becomes bigger than investing. It becomes a lesson in leadership. Great leaders do not merely react to current conditions. They examine the assumptions underneath them. They ask whether the entire mental map is broken. When they find a deeper truth, they reorganize around it. That is what Saylor has done with MSTR: he turned a balance sheet decision into a philosophy, a philosophy into a capital strategy, and a capital strategy into a corporate identity. Michael Saylor’s work with MSTR and bitcoin is not just a financial story. It is a mental story. He won the battle in the mind first. He refused the lie that conventional treasury assets were truly safe. He embraced the belief that bitcoin was the stronger foundation. Then he built a company around that conviction. That is the pattern: Renew the mind. See clearly. Act boldly. Repeat consistently. And over time, what begins as a thought becomes a strategy, and what becomes a strategy can reshape an entire company.

如果上面这段话看不懂的话，可以这么理解。 tokenization的真正意义不是已经证券化的资产上链，而是无数更小的曾经无法证券化的内容证券化。

最近看到一个有艺术天赋的牛人吐槽动漫项目决策的呆板化老登化，随之得出灵感。 tokenization是市场机制的数字化。 tokenization正是此类案例中市场机制交易成本过高的对症优化解法。 tom lee在描述tokenization的时候举的例子是某个季度的利润token化（大概是这个意思），他的例子还不够好。结合这里的灵感，其结论可以肯定无误。 这个灵感意义重大。 进一步看好eth/sol/sui。

@roxom Some things never change.

In 2012, Michael Saylor said the iPhone would become Jewellery. He was right. Now, he predicts Bitcoin will become the foundation of global wealth.

取消关注江卓尔，做空的都是loser。

@AdamBLiv Greatest work ever.

🚨WARNING: THE GLOBAL ELITE ARE COMING FOR YOUR BITCOIN🚨 Bitcoin was supposed to be open to everyone. Then volatility showed up with a crowbar and exposed who actually had the stomach to hold it. In this video, I break down the grotesque transfer of wealth happening in plain sight as retail investors panic, puke their coins into the market, and institutions, ETFs, public companies, and wealth managers scoop them up like it’s Black Friday for monetary property. This is the brutal reality of Bitcoin in 2026: Normies keep treating Bitcoin like a casino chip Institutions are treating it like strategic reserve collateral Retail keeps confusing discomfort with danger Every drawdown becomes a transfer event Weak hands are manufacturing supply for the ruling class The global elite do not need your permission. They need your fear. They need your impatience. They need you to sell the hardest asset on Earth because the red candles made your tummy hurt:

奇怪，之前怎么没有注意到algo。 查了一下各方面都不错，可以持有。 现在我的持仓变成这样。 btc eth sol sui algo avax zro zec

展示账户可以浏览了。 页面上有5个交易对，每个交易对使用的策略不同。 第1个针对btc使用了杠杆，不开放，只展示。 其他的策略感兴趣可以私信我免费用。 还在积累数据阶段，再过几个月，平均下来的收益应该可以达到月化3%~5%。 mfv168.appspot.com/pnl/demo

@hidupsukaenak Who the MF told you they are dumplings😂

Dumplings on dumplings…This is why Asians are obsessed with dumplings

@williamlab 最后一句话说到点子上了。

原来沙特一直能卖啊，难怪海湾国家没有我想的着急，甚至还喊着接着打。 其实在高油价面前，想卖的想买的都能想到办法，人们还是太低估人类对于做买卖的执行力了。

It’s a log periodic structure as befits the discrete scale invariance expected for a continuous scale invariant (power law adhering) monetary network. The graph is the log price residuals after subtracting the power law. No 4 year cycles. Fundamental and subharmonic modes dominate and some small contribution from other harmonics. The spacing is in logarithmic time with a ratio of 2.07 determined via Fourier analysis of the residuals and confirmed by wavelet analysis. A complete treatment includes phase which is stable over time for the fundamental. @Fidelity Personal note: they couldn’t support some of my accounts after I moved overseas because of the 86 years old Investment Company Act of 1940. So more went into third millennial monetary technology under my own direction.

The Bitcoin low for 2026 is in. Those calling for and waiting for $30,000 to $40,000 were wrong and will be sidelined unless they chase. As I said, the max drawdown I expected was 50-60%, not the 80-90% seen in past cycles. $60,000 was a gift (52% down from the ATH), and it took a Binance "glitch," months of Jane Street manipulation, and plenty of shenanigans to get us there. We got follow through on the PMI, and it is time for the main event: the full bull market. The bull market correction is over.

有一些节点在事后来看其实是很简单的。 前年懂王当选前后，圈外喊的是经济衰退，圈内在6万被磨的没有脾气，然后就出乎大家反应地迅速拉到8万以上。然后一年的行情大家都看到了。 今年对伊朗的这个打击大获成功，成功的难以想象可以说。然后圈外在担心世界大战，圈内还是在6万到7万被磨的没有脾气。 真的很简单。

Is the power law useful? You can use it with a simple strategy using spot and perps with 1.5x leverage (and never been liquidated) to get you 800 BTC from 1 BTC over the history of Bitcoin. We didn't have perps early on but it shows what can be done.