Shane C. Murphy, CMT

@PolycarpFX Great chart - even better X handle!

@murphycharts $SPX $VIX weekly close > 30 forward returns

$VVIX vs. $VIX ratio, 3yr (weekly) Z-score Lowest reading since the COVID crash. Historically, readings below -1.5 have been indicative of a $SPX market bottom.

Owning palladium = a bet on EV adoption missing expectations and continued global interest in hybrid vehicles. Hybrids use 10-20% more palladium than standard ICE vehicles. Prices bid up in '25 because of the above, coupled with supply shocks due to South African mine closures and Russia-Ukraine conflict. A lot had to "go right" for this play to work. Given the structural headwinds tied to EV adoption, it's hard to get excited about the metal long-term. $PALL trading just below the 200-day average and in a 35% drawdown from the YTD highs. Prices are very much tied to China economic health - given it accounts for ~25% of global demand.

US vs. Everyone Else Path of least resistance = Everyone Else $SPY $ACWX

Did real yields and gold make up and get back together? Sure looks like it! $GOLD $TNX

Rate volatility is driving the bus it seems. $MOVE $SPX

Affinity bias most certainly plays a role here. The brand equity of individual luxury names (Louis Vuitton, Hermes, Ferrari etc.) is strong enough to make the ETF wrapper feel like a downgrade. Investors want to see the brand name on their list of portfolio holdings!

Every dedicated US-listed Luxury Goods ETF has failed. The graveyard is filling up. $USLUX (active OE fund) is the only survivor. In 30yrs since its launch, it retains only $47mm in total net assets.

$BCOM Commodities digesting overhead supply.

$EURUSD Rate vol continues to push the euro lower.

@sam_gatlin Weekly candles will keep you honest!

There's a very strong negative correlation between the number of weekly candlesticks I look at & the number of stupid decisions I make.

$SPX Stuck b/w a rock and a hard place. New YTD lows, trading beneath an upward sloping 200-day average. Trading right at the April '25 anchored VWAP. We're in a ~7.50% drawdown from all-time highs and down -5% YTD. If the market plans to retest the '24 highs (6,100) that's another ~6% from here. Putting us into correction territory. Pretty typical, 65% of years see a -10% drawdown or worse! NTM P/E went from 24x in Oct '25 to 20.5x today. Earnings display no sign of deterioration - but very much TBD. Placing myself into the mind of short seller, the '24 highs would be my target. Relatively speaking, very little shares exchanged hands b/w 6,500 and 6,100. If we lose the April '25 AVWAP, we could test 6,100 in a hurry!

@jaykaeppel @sentimentrader Great chart Jay

The more the Nasdaq Composite Index has declined, the more Nasdaq 100 Index company insiders have bought. Make of it what you will. @sentimentrader

Copper miners are retesting a breakout from a decade long basing pattern. $COPX $SPY

@JToTheSal @SamRo Fair enough

@SamRo @murphycharts I do think we’ll resolve higher because war won’t be forever but doesn’t mean we don’t go 10% lower from here until then

Year to date, the S&P 500 is down 3.5%. In the same period last year, it was down 3.5%.

@DJwrath Incessant!

Shout out to the wholesalers still pitching private credit in my inbox