PolycarpFX

11.2K posts

PolycarpFX

@PolycarpFX

Macro & Technical Markets : High-conviction analysis, scenario planning, edge through data + positioning. Not investment advice.

Salt Lake City, UT Katılım Mayıs 2022

560 Takip Edilen2.6K Takipçiler

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·18h

🧵 Just dropped my Q2 - 2026 Market Outlook with the link in the comments for access. $SPY $SPX $VIX Here's what I'm watching, what I got right in Q1, and why the next 6 months could be the most important of this cycle. Thread 👇

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·20m

$FAS $XLF

PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX

$XLF watching Financials here, $FAS (3x ETF) might be a way to play a bounce

QME

PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·50m

$MSFT watch for gap fill

PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX

👇Week Ahead Trade Plan - Under Pressure 🌎 Link for access in the comments Includes - 6 Trade Idea's with Targets 🎯 and Buy Levels - Index Data and Short Term Outlook $SPY $QQQ - A Few Longer Term Investment Idea's 💎 Here's a teaser 🧵

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·1h

$UNH Catalyst upcoming before April 6th (That’s next Monday, so time to position is now). Can play this via shares, lotto calls, or $UNHG (2x ETF). Take profit targets are 280, 291, and 310 on some blowout. Most likely I will sell the initial move off the news if positive and lock profit or cut losses. I think it will move higher before the announcement so can scalp on the way up. (yes I moved the wedge down, that's what technicians do ☠️) SVFI < 15 favors a strong bounce regardless

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·2h

@DualityResearch $XLE $USO

QME

Duality Research@DualityResearch·2h

🛢️ WTI crude oil has finally touched the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of March’s high–low range.

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769

PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·2h

$IHI - Med Device ETF One of the few sectors that can align well as a trading vehicle in bear and bull environments. Notice how in 2022 this reading was often a good buy spot for a bounce. The companies within include names such as $ABT and $MDT. We are also nearing the uptrend from the 2020 Covid Lows.

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·3h

The idea that this flips quickly isn’t unreasonable. $TLT $TNX

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·3h

Historically, some of the best risk‑reward in midterm years appears when buying in early November, where the first week has an excellent track record in past cycles, making it a natural window to get more aggressive once the technical and macro backdrop start to repair. $SPX $VIX

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·3h

$XLF watching Financials here, $FAS (3x ETF) might be a way to play a bounce

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·13h

open.substack.com/pub/futureclas…

ZXX

PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·13h

Confident the 365 gap gets filled this week. I’ll likely buy lotto calls at open for that as minimum target, $MSFL should do well here, risk is a little lower near April 2025 low. $MSFT forward returns when NDFI < 16 creates additional support for the thesis.

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·13h

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·13h

$BRK.B With financials oversold and the forward returns data for Berkshire at these levels, $BRKU (BRK.B x2 ETF) could work well here on a bounce

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PolycarpFX retweetledi

Evan@StockMKTNewz·21h

GET READY FOR ANOTHER CRAZY WEEK IN THE STOCK MARKET Here's a full catalyst watch to help you get prepared More below ⬇️🧵

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·17h

@Ashton_1nvests $UNH 🐂

QME

190

Ashton Invests@Ashton_1nvests·1d

Let me get this straight… $UNH is: - 30% below Buffett’s buy - Below insider buying levels - After $30M+ of insider purchases And people are scared here?

Barchart@Barchart

BREAKING 🚨: UnitedHealth $UNH has now plunged all the way back below Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway 2025 purchase price 📉💸

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·17h

$IGV - Currently testing this support zone for the 5th time with terrible sentiment. There is an unfilled gap on that 2nd blue line in the 73’s

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·17h

$USO $XLE

Gordon 🐂@GordonGekko

Someone has just opened a $17,300,000 Oil short position. Do they know something? 👀

QME

336

PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·17h

@GordonGekko $USO 🤷‍♂️

QME

235

Gordon 🐂@GordonGekko·1d

Someone has just opened a $17,300,000 Oil short position. Do they know something? 👀

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PolycarpFX@PolycarpFX·17h

@murphycharts $SPX $VIX weekly close > 30 forward returns

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Shane C. Murphy, CMT@murphycharts·1d

$VVIX vs. $VIX ratio, 3yr (weekly) Z-score Lowest reading since the COVID crash. Historically, readings below -1.5 have been indicative of a $SPX market bottom.