Maciej Wojtal

Chinese supertanker crosses Strait of Hormuz ahead of Trump and Xi talks #liveblog-body" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">news.sky.com/story/iran-war…

Statement on behalf of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran:

"Iran has gotten more sanctions relief from closing the Strait of Hormuz for a couple of weeks than it got for all of the nuclear concessions it made under the nuclear deal" -> interesting incentive structure

Banks had been closed through Sunday for a 7-day public holiday after the Supreme Leader’s death, but are now open. Tehran’s fixed-income funds also resumed trading after an 11-day suspension following the US-Israeli strikes, with trade value just under $300M and prices up 0.33%.

🚨NEW: Trump tells me in an interview that Iran “is running out of launchers” and that U.S. defense companies are “under emergency orders” to build weapons. Q: Is it too late for you to want to work with someone in the new government? "Nope, not too late. 49 were killed, don't forget, so that goes pretty deep, right? New ones are emerging. A lot of people want the job. Some of them would be very good. " “They’ll keep lobbing missiles for a while. They’re running out, and they're running out of areas to shoot them, because they're being decimated.” Q: You already heard that they're starting to run out? “Yeah, they're running out, and they're running out of launchers.”

“We have unlimited of the middle and upper middle ammunition and things. We save it and we build it.” “The defense companies are on a rapid tear to build the various things we need. They're rapid. They're under emergency orders. We’re making it fast, but we have unlimited, as stupid as Biden was, he didn't use it. We have unlimited of the middle and upper middle and it's unbelievable. He gave so much to PT Barnum, he gave him so much for free.” I also asked Trump if he wants Irans to come to the U.S. to play in the World Cup this year. Stay tuned! politico.com/news/2026/03/0…

“Khameneism will be buried alongside Khamenei.” Totally agree. The ship is turning in the right direction, slowly but surely

Iran is highlighting potential U.S. investment opportunities in its energy and mining sectors as part of a renewed push for a nuclear agreement and broader economic cooperation. ft.com/content/27f02d…

Araqchi: Technical talks will start in Vienna from Monday and in less than a week, will have another round of Iran-U.S. talks.

IRAN MARKET CLOSE (25 Feb 2026) •Tedpix Index 3,713,956 1.69% •Farabourse Index 28,392 0.99% •Amtelon Index* 224.8 1.01% •Value Traded (USD mln) 25.6 •USD/IRR (bazaar rate) 1,652,000 0.67%

IRAN MARKET CLOSE (24 Feb 2026) •Tedpix Index 3,652,328 -0.76% •Farabourse Index 28,115 -0.43% •Amtelon Index* 222.6 -1.48% •Value Traded (USD mln) 27.1 •USD/IRR (bazaar rate) 1,641,000 0.74%

IRAN MARKET CLOSE (23 Feb 2026) •Tedpix Index 3,680,136 1.70% •Farabourse Index 28,235 1.07% •Amtelon Index* 225.9 2.58% •Value Traded (USD mln) 27.5 •USD/IRR (bazaar rate) 1,629,000 -0.85%

Reporter: Is there a timeline for an Iran deal? Trump: I guess over the next month, something like that. It should happen very quickly.

A good source for daily Iranian stock market data when the Tehran Stock Exchange website isn’t accessible #Iran #Tedpix

Important events are unfolding in Iran. Thanks to @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart for a great, wide-ranging discussion.

Geopolitical shifts can be rapid. As discussed with @jsphctrl, “there are a lot of people waiting for some sort of catalyst” in Iran ft.com/content/8c1470…

Against this background, it is important to note that the #venezuelainvasion event demonstrated that Trump prefers to work with the existing regime—even if it is problematic—rather than invest in promoting opposition forces. It is worth recalling that he chose not to meet with meet with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. Removing Khamenei is one thing; fundamentally changing policy—abandoning enrichment in order to save the revolution—is an entirely different matter. It can be assumed that there are elements within the regime who fully understand that the “no negotiations, no war” policy has failed in a colossal manner. Even if the regime succeeds in suppressing the protests, it will have to change this policy in order to survive. Khamenei has surprised in the past with his ability to demonstrate “heroic flexibility,” but there is a vast gap between negotiating with the United States and crossing a fundamental red line such as stop enrichment inside Iran. It is likely that if Khamenei refuses to drink another “poison chalice” criticism of him within the system will intensify. It is important to emphasize: there is no doubt that most of the Iranian elite holds the Supreme Leader in high regard, and any move to remove him would be unprecedented and very difficult to envision at this stage. However, it is likely that there are senior figures who understand well that if the regime wishes to survive, things will have to change significantly.

At a recent @NUFDIran event, @Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi @dkhos told another Iranian-American entrepreneur @shervin Pishevar that Uber—and other major companies—would "invest aggressively" in Iran within the first 100 days after the fall of the regime. "The sky is the limit."

Great discussion about Iran with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart - always sharp on market moves. Thanks for having me on!

US incentives for #Iran: (1) $20-30 billion investment in a new Iranian non-enrichment nuclear program (2) removing some sanctions on Iran (3) allowing Tehran to access the $6 billion sitting in foreign bank accounts edition.cnn.com/2025/06/26/pol…

6/ The Iranian equity market just started moving. But local flows still dominate, and global investors aren’t even looking. It’s early — but if diplomacy holds, this could be one of the most significant valuation resets in EM over the next decade.

5/ Sanctions removal would: ✔️ Reopen trade & capital flows ✔️ Unlock suppressed corporate margins ✔️ Reprice political risk ✔️ Attract foreign capital ✔️ Deliver multi-fold upside This is not a 20% trade. It’s potentially a 5x-10x re-rating of blue-chip names.

📈 One of the world’s best-performing equity markets this week? #Iran. The TEDPIX index is up +4.1% QTD ($ terms), including a +7.8% jump yesterday and another +0.4% today — while global markets stumble amid trade and geopolitical risk. Here’s why 🧵