The Policy Guy

What the fuck? Please explain.

Liberal budget reply on migration The Taylor Lib response is sadly lacking in many areas, but I'll focus on the proposed initiative to tie migration to housing completions. I'd urge everyone to consider the following: 1. If you're 'right leaning' or not in favour of current migration levels, you likely support this purely in the hope it reduces intake? Be honest.... 2. Whilst the formula and methodology is YTBD, ask yourself this. What if the improbable happened, and we started churning out enormous volumes of houses? That means many, many millions of migrants! I want a small Australia, and nobody ever asked me, or you, if we wish otherwise. Do you really want 100 million people congregated in Melbourne and Sydney but...oh, it's ok, cos we've built lots of skyscrapers?! You can see the problem no? Low quality, high density living allowing a massive influx of people? No thanks. 3. There is a real chance that housing completions may in fact tick up appreciably given the ALPs new policy on negative gearing for new builds. So don't expect a big drop in numbers 4. What about infrastructure? What if we distort markets to house builds, but our roads, hospitals, etc all break under the strain? Quality of life will be impacted even further than already. 5. What if we simply don't need this many people even if we can house them? What? Wait! Isn't the argument that we import people so that they may rectify skills shortages in the economy? Is that no longer a thing? 6. Please bear this in mind. Within 5 years we'll have 3d rapid printing of many house types. In ten we'll hage augmented robotics on site. Too bad if we can build a ton of houses, leading to a massive population, but nobody has a job! Immigration should not be based on the ALP / Kos Samaras 'let it rip' approach. But it should not be based on housing completions. It should be based on demonstrable need and presumable benefit. Which means very, very few people, with very, very stringent conditions.

Liberal budget reply on migration The Taylor Lib response is sadly lacking in many areas, but I'll focus on the proposed initiative to tie migration to housing completions. I'd urge everyone to consider the following: 1. If you're 'right leaning' or not in favour of current migration levels, you likely support this purely in the hope it reduces intake? Be honest.... 2. Whilst the formula and methodology is YTBD, ask yourself this. What if the improbable happened, and we started churning out enormous volumes of houses? That means many, many millions of migrants! I want a small Australia, and nobody ever asked me, or you, if we wish otherwise. Do you really want 100 million people congregated in Melbourne and Sydney but...oh, it's ok, cos we've built lots of skyscrapers?! You can see the problem no? Low quality, high density living allowing a massive influx of people? No thanks. 3. There is a real chance that housing completions may in fact tick up appreciably given the ALPs new policy on negative gearing for new builds. So don't expect a big drop in numbers 4. What about infrastructure? What if we distort markets to house builds, but our roads, hospitals, etc all break under the strain? Quality of life will be impacted even further than already. 5. What if we simply don't need this many people even if we can house them? What? Wait! Isn't the argument that we import people so that they may rectify skills shortages in the economy? Is that no longer a thing? 6. Please bear this in mind. Within 5 years we'll have 3d rapid printing of many house types. In ten we'll hage augmented robotics on site. Too bad if we can build a ton of houses, leading to a massive population, but nobody has a job! Immigration should not be based on the ALP / Kos Samaras 'let it rip' approach. But it should not be based on housing completions. It should be based on demonstrable need and presumable benefit. Which means very, very few people, with very, very stringent conditions.

🚨: A super El Niño is forming in the Pacific - the biggest since the recorded history Get ready for extreme winters since 1877!

This is my vision for Australia. Fairer, freer, and better for all. We have known this Australia before, and we can know it again. 🇦🇺

The 5 million Angus Taylor thinks don’t vote and the millions in their households who do. Angus Taylor thinks he’s punishing non-citizens. They can’t vote, so it’s a free hit. That’s the entire logic. But it’s a logic only someone who has never lived in the big cities would consider. In the suburbs that decide elections, the household, not the individual, is the political unit. Three generations under one roof or in the same suburb. Grandparents on partner visas. Parents holding PR while the citizenship queue grinds on. Citizen kids enrolled to vote, working part-time, doing the family’s Services Australia paperwork at the kitchen table. Strip the NDIS from a permanent resident and you have not touched a single voter directly. You have touched their daughter. Their son. Their citizen niece. And they vote, very deliberately, for the people in their family who cannot. This is exactly the structural shape of post-war migrant Australia. Greek, Italian, Maltese, Lebanese, Vietnamese households where the citizen children voted for the whole family. It is alive and well, three generations on, in the outer suburbs the Coalition needs to win government. Taylor has told every one of those households that in his Australia, their parents are second-class. He thinks he’s chasing Hanson voters in Farrer. He’s actually handing Labor a permanent structural lock on the seats that decide who governs. And he has possibly committed his party to losing opposition status at the next election. Full piece and analysis below

There it is folks: Interest rate futures now see a BASE CASE of the next Fed move being a rate HIKE. In fact, the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates before July 2027 are a mere 1%. As inflation hits its highest level since 2023, the Fed is left with no option. All as Consumer Confidence just hit a record low and the labor market is weakening under the surface. Rate hikes into stagflation are coming.