Geoff Bernstein

@HarryStebbings Plus: the spread between MOIC and net TVPI will tell you everything you need to know about a manager’s ability to manage a portfolio.

Why MOIC is a BS Metric and IRR Matters More: "Most early-stage firms focus on MOIC, but MOIC is a bullshit metric compared to IRR. A fund can return 7x over 20 years and still only generate a teens IRR. If the go-forward IRR is not compelling, you have an obligation to your LPs to sell at least part of the position." @gokulr Love to hear your thoughts and reflections on this @joshk @MKRocks @honam @infoarbitrage @briannekimmel @NWischoff @pitdesi @nbt

@EricNewcomer @maddierenbarger IRRs for 2022 vintage funds with no additional context is completely useless. No knock on any of these funds.

VC RETURNS REVEALED: Recent Thrive & Notable Funds in a League of Their Own at UTIMCO @maddierenbarger newcomer.co/p/vc-returns-r…

@pavelprata DM me. Your assumptions are very close to what we did and happy to share results and full construction.

Ok, let’s do a quick exercise. If we take a realistic $50M fund (pretty average for emerging managers in 2025–2026 vintages from both coasts), here's how it can actually work: 1/ 2/20 which is ~$10M management fees over 10 years with ~$40M deployable capital 2/ Reserve ~25% from the fund size for follow-ons which is $12.5M (you can recycle aggressively or bump to 40% if conviction is high) 3/ Leaves ~$27.5M for initial checks 4/ Pure Seed focus (no pre-seed mix to keep it clean): "hot Seed" rounds today: often $4–6M on $20–30M post, but let’s take $5M on $25M post If the fund tries to lead with 50% of the round ($2.5M checks), you’re suddenly looking at maybe 11 companies in the portfolio with ~10% ownership. More realistically, though, a new manager probably ends up co-leading or participating with something closer to 1/3 of the round ~$1.7M), which pushes the portfolio toward ~16 companies with ~6–7% ownership. So the portfolio naturally lands somewhere between concentration and diversification. And in both cases the outcome probably depends less on the exact fund size and more on execution like pro-rata discipline (selective super-pro-rata on the winners and passes on mediocre positions), some thoughtful liquidity (strategic secondaries, recycling), and a few real exits. Under those conditions hitting ~3x isn’t crazy ($150M in distribution). Which is why I’m not fully convinced that the $30–75M category is structurally doomed – the constraints are real, but the math can still work if the manager is disciplined.

@Struhl @HarryStebbings There is nothing like career risk to verify conviction

@HarryStebbings Seed funds <100M have to play a different game. Obv pick right, then high ownership, high concentration, very little follow on. Our goal is to get 50% of our investable capital into our top 3 names and buy up multiple times pre series A. It’s worked for us across multiple funds.

LPs love the idea of the 30M-75M high ownership seed fund. These will be the worst performing funds of this vintage. Average top tier seed rounds are $5M. These funds don’t have enough to lead and have a diversified portfolio. But they are too large to be collaborative and work with the best leads. Adverse selection takes effect. Be small enough to collaborate (sub $20M) or be large enough to lead ($100M+).

@elonmusk This is incredibly dumb. It’s a denominator phenomenon you’re looking at. go tell Africa to stop growing and tell Putin to stop being a cunt in Eastern Europe.

If current trends continue, Whites will go from being a small minority of world population today to virtually extinct!

@jmj Amen

There is a very big difference between running a venture fund and building a venture firm. I get a lot of aspiring venture capitalists who ask me about starting their own firm, and the quick thing I tell them is that they have to love company building & operations as much as they love investing. At the end of the day, so much of your time is spent on fundraising, recruiting, and back office. You have to really love that stuff early on (or it least be good at it) when nobody is there to help you out. If you don’t love the non-investing stuff or have enough self-awareness to know you're not good at it, you should definitely consider joining a platform. I have friends who are amazingly talented who have decided they only want to focus on investing, and they are very happy & many make a ton of money too. Easy to run a fund. Much harder to build a firm.

@robgo Never been more excited than now for our focus on customer obsessed founders with unique distribution models in unsexy, high-friction markets.

Seed VCs are staring into the abyss. It’s no coincidence that numerous investors have stepped away from the space in recent years, while others talk nervously behind closed doors. Is there a path forward? That’s for my next post.

Seed VC is facing an existential crisis. This isn't hyperbole. And it's not just a regular business cycle. It's a real crucible moment. My full thoughts here: nextview.vc/blog/a-crisis-… But if you want the TLDR, here you go:

@endowment_eddie Extra points for showing a multiple of your entry valuation to the current valuation. Extra extra points if you’re marking to a cap on a SAFE

Art is not what you see; but what you make others see. Here’s how to build a deck for LPs: 1) 3+ slides of founder testimonials 2) Compare your gross, last round value returns to net return benchmarks. Bonus points for using Preqin or Burgiss 3) Don’t share your fund size—obvi you have no cap 4) List your mgmt fee as 2.0%* 5) List out your broad network of non-economically incentivized venture partners and advisors (20+) 6) Market map but ignore your most obvious competitors 7) Case studies — who needs them. Still, list deals you’ve done with logos and idea bubbles with the step-up between valuations (only nerds factor in dilution) Now, remember, LPs love Benchmark. For the more sophisticated, say you’re the next First Round. Tell them you want to stay small and that small funds outperform. Hammer home your value add, trash platforms (but you’re friends with all of them), and add a dash of potential coinvest. You should be gucci. *represents avg 10yr fee despite 2.5% fees during the 5yr investment period

@RealCandaceO You are not a serious person

The most predictable war, plausibly ever. I’m so sick of Israel and those who pretend its actions are normal or even remotely justifiable. This country has a bloodlust like no other. Have an issue with this tweet? I literally do not care. Think defending Israel’s demonic actions is going to guarantee you a spot in heaven? Double your indulgences and sign your offspring up to die for Netanyahu. Leave the rest of us the hell alone.

@aaronbaii @sahilkphadnis Team America! Let’s go!

I met @sahilkphadnis when we were 16 and 18 years old. We were looking for roommates at UC Berkeley, and ended up starting a company together the same day we met. We recruited a team, built a product, launched, and then it flopped . . . hard. It was a tough pill to swallow. We moved back in with our parents, went heads-down, and started searching for what was next. Then, one question to a SMB owner changed everything: “How do you manage your finances, and how can we help you improve them?” Today, we’re excited to share that Affiniti has raised a $17M Series A led by SignalFire to use financial intelligence to unlock cash flow for backbone American SMBs. 22% of U.S. small businesses struggle to pay bills, and 70% have less than four months of cash reserves. Cash flow is holding back trillions of dollars of potential revenue for SMBs across America. Instead of only offering more point solutions — like another card or bank account — Affiniti is building a vertically integrated financial system that acts like a CFO for your business. And we’re just getting started. You can read more about our vision here: lnkd.in/g846taT7 Let’s revive backbone America! If you're ready to join our vision, we’re hiring: lnkd.in/gERNNYyc

@KTmBoyle Why don’t you provide a legitimate piece of research to support this blanket statement.

Young men should be angry. The long-term effect of taking Adderall and Ritalin over years is growth suppression. I don’t think many boys are told “take this pill, and the major side effect is you’ll be shorter.” Terrible.

@anothercohen What is this a center for ants? Team of 1?

Recently started paying for our team’s Zyn. $100/mo in exchange for thousands worth of increased productivity. Absolute no brainer

@AlexH_Johnson Thanks fun police

I hate it! And I hate that this is fintech in 2025, but whatever. Here are some thoughts 🧵

03.27.2025

@jordihays Will sponsor. Lmk

We are working on a new show called PMF or Die. We will lock a small founding team in a studio apartment (the “cage”) with $25K in funding and only enough food/caffeine/nicotine to last for 90 days. The team will only be released if/when they achieve $1MM in ARR and the whole process will be documented and shared daily. While in the cage, you will get millions of eyeballs and be coached by some of the most accomplished founders in the world so if you can’t find PMF in the cage, you won’t won’t find it anywhere. Please reach out if you are interested in being locked up and I will share the application.

@shaig @IndicatorVC in Seaport

@IlhanMN You are not a serious person.

Throughout history, protests were co-opted and made to look bad so police and public leaders would shut them down. That’s what we are seeing now at Columbia University. The Columbia protesters have made clear their demands and want their school not to be complacent in the ongoing Genocide in Gaza. Public officials and media making this about anything else are inflaming the situation and need to bring calmness and sanity back.

@AyannaPressley Go away

Dear Massachusetts 7th, It is an honor to be your Congresswoman. Let's run it back. Love, Ayanna

@nikitabier Here to serve

The primary function of venture capitalists is to mistreat founders so founders can hold grudges and then go scorched earth to prove them wrong.

@OnlyInBOS clicker

What's a word in Massachusetts you hear that you rarely hear anywhere else? I'll start. Rotary (Roundabout)