@danroberts0101 So…. It is an expenditure again but not income ??? 50% cash + 50% stock for acquiring Mirantis…. Potential dilution again.
English
ngcsfrank
27 posts
Bringing compute online is the hard part.
Mirantis helps us do it better - strengthening how compute is deployed, managed and operated for customers. $IREN
IREN@IREN_Ltd
IREN is acquiring Mirantis. Our advantage is infrastructure and execution. This builds on existing capabilities and strengthens how compute is deployed, managed and operated. Read more: iren.gcs-web.com/static-files/8…
English
@IREN_Ltd @mikealfred 50%, 50% stock….. Will have dilution again?
English
IREN is acquiring Mirantis.
Our advantage is infrastructure and execution.
This builds on existing capabilities and strengthens how compute is deployed, managed and operated.
Read more: iren.gcs-web.com/static-files/8…
English
@BitcoinAIGuy @Edge_Bolt To be honest, I had many IREN but I don’t have confident that IREN can keep at high price without any new deals at all… IREN has been vulnerable at high price and easy to drop back based on the past performance. It really needs a new deal ASAP to shut down everyone’s mouth.
English
@CPpking99003 @ArtofSpecuycky IREN沒有新單，再多的算力也沒用，市場不會承認這公司是提供有效AI算力基建的公司，只會仍然把它當成是挖礦的公司，股價只會長期是低估值。
中文
$IREN 财报前瞻：Sweetwater 1已通电，5月7日的真正悬念只剩一个
先说昨天发生的事
2026年5月1日，IREN正式宣布Sweetwater 1变电站成功接入ERCOT电网，1.4GW高压变电站通电完成。
市场等了半年的里程碑，在财报前6天悄悄落地。
没有大张旗鼓。没有股价暴涨。
因为市场知道：通电不是终点，客户才是。
财报数字：不是重点
先把头条数字说完：
共识预期：总营收$219.9M，AI Cloud $83.1M，EPS -0.24。上季度营收$184.7M，miss了将近20%，股价跌6.9%。
我预期这次头条数字大概率再次miss。
原因很简单：
Q1比特币价格走弱
矿机加速下架腾挪给GPU
= 比特币收入继续萎缩
这不是风险，这是战略
越快甩掉比特币
市场就越快用数据中心的估值体系看IREN
唯一重要的问题
Sweetwater 1的第一个客户是谁？
1.4GW电力已经通了。 全球算力荒还在持续。 B300现货$100万还被抢光。
从逻辑上讲，IREN不可能通电之后坐等客户上门。
几个细节值得注意：
细节一：通电公告的措辞
IREN官方声明原文："energization is an important step toward bringing grid-connected capacity online and reducing time-to-compute for customers。"
用的是"customers"，不是"potential customers"，不是"future customers"。
这可能是措辞习惯，也可能意味着谈判比公开信息显示的更深入。
细节二：Childress的异动
100MW+矿机正在被下架。
你不会无缘无故放弃现成的现金流，除非已经知道那块容量要给谁用。
细节三：上季度提到的"数十亿美元软件交易"
这句话在上季度财报电话会上被管理层提及，然后再也没有后续解释。
这不是偶然的口误。
我对5月7日的判断
确定会看到的：
Sweetwater通电确认（已发生）
AI Cloud收入约$81-83M
ARR从$2.3B往上走
50K B300 GPU进度更新
可能出现的惊喜：
新客户合同宣布
→ 第二个Hyperscale合同
→ 股价短期+20-30%，估值重估开始
ARR跳升至$3B+
→ 意味着新合同已签但未宣布
→ 间接确认客户进展
"数十亿美元软件交易"更新
→ 上季度提及，这次必须给答案
有没有惊喜的概率：
我的判断：60%有正面惊喜
不是因为有内幕
而是因为：
通电选在财报前6天发生
≠ 巧合
= 在为更大的公告做铺垫
市场怎么定价这次财报
期权市场定价显示财报后预期波动幅度约±16%，对应约±$7。
有新客户合同 → $55-65（+20-40%）
财报好无合同 → $48-52（+5-15%）
miss无催化剂 → $38-42（-10-20%）
我的核心观点
IREN现在面临的不是执行问题。
Childress已经证明了执行力。 微软合同已经证明了客户质量。 Sweetwater通电已经证明了时间节点。
IREN面临的是叙事问题。
市场还在用"矿商"的眼光给它5-6x P/S的估值。 AWS和Azure这样的云基建商享受8-12x P/S。
这中间的差距不需要任何新的奇迹来填平。
只需要Sweetwater签到第一个Hyperscale客户。
电已经通了。 钱在等答案。 5月7日，见分晓。
#IREN #AI基础设施 #数据中心 #财报前瞻 #StockMarket #Investing #交易
中文
@yianisz It is useless to keep saying Power is secured. No customer is willing to sign deal to use the Power of IREN. Probably the Power IREN had is not suitable for the usage as AI computing… The more Power secured only means IREN continues having better performance for Bitcoin mining.
English
Sweetwater going live is a big shift for $IREN.
Power is now secured.. the hardest part is done.
but that doesn’t mean revenue yet.
Now it’s simple: how fast can they turn that power into paying customers?
English
@ArtofSpecuycky 這就是個大問題，可IREN現在連簽個新單都有困難，這大半年一個新客戶都沒有.. 土地、算力、電力全都是只有支出，還倚賴挖礦才有收入。如果遲遲都沒有新客戶，更是說明IREN現在的模式不可行，看看NBIS，幾乎每半個月就有新單或是重大新聞…. 伴隨著隔三差五的增發/股權稀釋，只會搞到股價越來越糟。
中文
我觉得真正的风险不是技术缺陷或支援不足，真正的风险是Sweetwater的下一个客户规模和需求是否和IREN的"纯算力"定位匹配。如果下一个客户也是Hyperscaler级别，跟IREN的模式完全成立，那就没问题。如果下一个客户是中型AI公司，他们可能更需要Nebius那样的一条龙，然后IREN需要补充软件能力。我的想法哈。
中文
@danroberts0101 We need new deals to boost up the income so as to make good quarterly reports…. Without new deals, the stock price won’t raise…..
English
Sweetwater 1 energized.
Good to see it coming together, plenty more to do. $IREN
IREN@IREN_Ltd
Sweetwater 1 has been successfully energized – a key milestone in the development of the broader 2GW Sweetwater campus. @danroberts0101, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of $IREN commented: “Delivering Sweetwater 1 substation energization on schedule reflects our disciplined execution, the strength of our supply chain relationships and the efficiency of our vertically integrated development model. It is another example of our ability to design and construct large-scale infrastructure reliably and at speed to meet market demand.” Learn more: iren.gcs-web.com/static-files/d…
Sydney, New South Wales 🇦🇺 English
全网都在热议东山精密，有多少人能提前埋伏？
关于东山精密的最新文章我已同步至公众号：
我从2月份80元建仓，一路加仓至今
目前已突破3400亿市值，第一目标价上修至 4000亿
光芯片外售 + Meta 超预期订单 + 1.6T 进度提前
为什么我敢继续加仓？全文将拆解我的估值逻辑与判断，文章直达链接：mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MCEmBJGJoRDK…
潘驴邓晓闲缺一@JohnsonZ91127
今天东山精密再次飙升，目前报 183，天风证券等机构把东山估值在 6800 亿，有点夸张，我们在核实各大券商的报告，并会产生一个我们自己的估值报告给我们的客户
中文
突发：两个消息导致股市瞬间下跌
1. 副总统JD Vance取消赴巴基斯坦行程（AP）
2. 伊朗方面放话”最终决定”不出席周三在巴基斯坦举行的美伊会谈（Tasnim）。油价飙升，美股下跌。
Pakistan一直是US-Iran之间的后门沟通渠道，Vance去巴基斯坦和伊朗到场本来是关键的de-escalation信号。现在两头同时崩了，外交通道基本关闭，基本坐实了Trump周二晚8点ultimatum之后军事升级的概率在快速上升
对市场来说，很明显 核心交易逻辑（为什么股市应声下跌）在这：
油价上破前高的概率在上升，能源股和防御板块相对受益，科技股和高beta承压，VIX大概率继续走高。Trump周二晚ultimatum这个binary event之前，手里一定要囤好cash
看市场是否愿意给出golden entry..
中文
@kevinxu I think our expectations over IREN is too high and I doubted if it can go higher without any new deals. I bought IREN at $5 and keep buying even until $50. It has great potential so I kept it but the progress in new deals is really disappointing and something could be wrong.
English
$IREN is going to be one of those stocks people post
"If you had invested $10k in 2026, you'd have $1M now"
TLDR: 3 huge catalysts coming up and few understand
𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬@Agrippa_Inv
3 Imminent $IREN Catalysts Not many companies have as much going for them right now as $IREN does. While management has been relatively quiet since the last earnings call, I believe we're standing right before a wave of major, thesis defining announcements. 1) Australia Expansion Given that Australia is where $IREN was incorporated, one might expect the company to already be operational there. Yet as of today, Australia remains merely the home of its HQ. That will likely change very soon... Just a couple of months ago, $IREN announced a sponsorship of the Sydney Swans, a prominent AFL team. As an isolated event, I wouldn't have thought much of it. The company's CEO is an Australian Football coach himself, so it could have simply been management paying homage to the company's roots. However, this sponsorship was accompanied by a sweeping marketing campaign across Australia. $IREN has seemingly gone all out on visual ad spend, plastering full trams with the company's logo and tagline across multiple Australian states, while also putting up new billboards outside Sydney's airport and other notables places. Knowing how cost disciplined management is, I seriously doubt they're burning all this money on nothing. I strongly believe the company is close to unveiling a major expansion into Australia. Currently, there are rumors that $IREN has at least two new data center sites lined up: one in South Australia, and one in New South Wales. With how aggressive the regional ad spend has been, I'd expect any new site announcement to be accompanied by large-scale customer contracts. If I had to speculate on who $IREN's first major customer in Australia might be, I'd wager on Anthropic, who recently announced plans to open an office in Sydney. 2) Sweetwater 1 Energization + Deal $IREN is likely just days or weeks away from energizing its largest site to date; the massive 1.4 GW Sweetwater 1 campus. With data center projects across the industry missing delivery timelines, largely due to an inability to secure reliable power, Sweetwater 1 stands out as a true unicorn. Having this much grid connected power concentrated at a single site is virtually unheard of, and positions Sweetwater as one of the most valuable assets in the sector. Successful energization will undoubtedly elevate $IREN's standing among operators industry wide, putting its execution capabilities on full display while competitors face severe delays and outright project cancellations. Management is also aggressively hiring for the Sweetwater campus, including night shift positions, a strong signal that the company is gearing up to develop new data centers at rapid speed around the clock, 24/7. This tells me we're likely nearing the signing of a new large-scale anchor client deal, possibly with another hyperscaler or frontier AI lab. My expectation is that the first tranche of the Sweetwater build-out will be designed entirely for liquid-cooled Rubins, with commissioning likely sometime in H1 2027. 3) Childress Expansion While Sweetwater is currently getting all the attention, we shouldn't overlook $IREN's first Texas campus; the 750 MW large Childress site. So far, $IREN has contracted 40% of the site's total capacity to Microsoft, 300 MW gross across 4 tranches (Horizon 1 to 4). That leaves 450 MW still up for grabs. With management clearly signaling its intention to fully convert the remainder of Childress into an air-cooled AI cloud campus, the runway potential remains enormous. Over the coming weeks, I'm expecting one of two things: either $IREN announces a new multi-hundred MW cloud contract for Childress, or management lays out a concrete plan to convert the remaining 450 MW into a large-scale cloud hub for multiple enterprise clients. Either way, the conversion of Childress's remaining capacity is likely to begin very soon. As with Sweetwater, the company is also actively hiring night shift HSE advisors for Childress construction, once again signaling an intent to scale development rapidly (night shift = 24/7 construction). On a side note, I'm also expecting the successful delivery of Horizon 1 this quarter to act as a meaningful catalyst for the company's competitive standing in the market. General Thoughts While I've covered each of these topics in depth in previous Substack reports, I believe the time has now come for this wave of catalysts to materialize. It's also worth pointing out that most Wall Street analysts fail to see around the corner when it comes to $IREN's cloud expansion. For the most part, they simply react to what's directly in front of them. That means $IREN is one of the rare stocks where retail investors can front run institutional capital, getting positioned before the catalysts materialize and before Wall Street prices them in accordingly. The irony is that over the past few weeks, retail has been doing the exact opposite: panic selling right before what I expect to be a major re-rate of the stock. Earlier this month I also heard many investors claim that $IREN couldn't move up before new large-scale deals or other catalysts materialized… That's a very dangerous way to think. Markets are inherently illogical. Trying to rationalize them is a mistake not only retail investors, but institutional ones too tend to make. Last year, $IREN's share price increased by over 1,000% from its April lows, purely on the expectation of a deal being close. If you'd waited for the actual announcement, you would have entered around $70… In any case, with these 3 major catalysts in front of us, I'm very much looking forward to the weeks ahead and especially to the Q1 earnings call. NFA, but I wouldn't be surprised if the stock cracks $100 in May. Images S/O: @FransBakker9812, @tempocap2
English
@ShanghaoJin 跌了敢买，买了敢拿，涨了我也敢拿，我也拿過好多漲了2倍 到10倍的股票，但我覺得最難的是克制貪婪，在適當的時候放掉….. 因為我每次拿到兩倍三倍的時候，市況逆轉時，我仍然抱有明天會更好的幻想，結果盈利幾乎每次都跌回去了….
中文
要把这个贴在自己wall of shame上
我在GS时候老板告我：跌了敢买，买了敢拿
其实，最难的涨了敢拿
知道公司长期向好，但是短期大概率要调整，这个时候抉择卖还是不卖
我可能比较菜，每次手贱想占个便宜卖掉，无一例外没有好结果
中文
@Sean__James This has been mentioned since Q2 2025 and I also kept lots of IREN since then. But what has happened so far is very disappointing. I start to consider if there could be any hidden/ unknown problems for IREN leading to no one is willing to sign a deal / it fails to find new deals.
English
@ngcsfrank “No GPU’s on the planet are sat idle”…all GPU’s will be contracted by the time they are received and ready to go live. $IREN
English
$IREN currently trading at 1/3rd MCAP of $NBIS whilst they both project similar EOY26 EBITDA of $3.2B.
What happens next is obvious, right?
English
@TheTechInvest No new deals for IREN at all among the rest of HPCs….. I doubt how a stock can really raise without any new deals meanwhile it keeps asking money from the shareholders…. If IREN can really raise 3 times this years, NBIS, CRWV, CIFR, HUT, WULF etc might rise 6 times…
English
$IREN in 2026
1. Announced building Oklahoma (1.6GW); one of the largest data centers on the planet.
2. Announced advanced talks with several hyperscalers.
3. Then added 50K B300 GPUs.
4. Then raised its ARR to nearly $4B.
5. Hired KPMG, one of the Big 4, as their auditor.
6. Added to MSCI Index.
7. Named as $AMD partner.
8. The Street maintained its average PT of $75 to the highest upside of $125.
9. Raised its power capacity by 50% in one quarter.
10. Grew its AI cloud services by 137% in Q2.
11. Announced for the first time its ambition to be a global AI provider.
12. Announced it’s working with $NVDA on the future data center design and the future of its software platform.
English
@BitcoinAIGuy Nearly all the others have confirmed new deals while IREN had confirmed nothing meanwhile it keeps asking for money from shareholders. It is undermining the value of the shareholders instead of creating value for us. It starts looking like it is a scam for instead.
English
If $IREN was a private company today it’d probably be trading at $120-$140 today
$150-$180 $IREN bull case is my target for the highs, $180-200 with euphoria
Bear case: $90-$100 end of year (after visiting those highs above)
This year. Mark it.
English
@AlexfromBabylon The problem is no deals at all for months while the others continue to have new deals nearly every 2 to 3 months….. IREN keeps to ask for money to build new site but no deals! It is very normal that the sentiment is so negative.
English
$IREN Sentiment is way to negative. World is extremely short on compute and high profile large bare metal projects are failing in mass like Stargate, Poolside etc.
Mixed feelings about 6B ATM structure, but these folks can build datacenters and power them. I understand why management did this, but I don’t think this is the way if you are still unproven in the eyes of the market. That said dilution fears are overblown, because I count on management to keep that in check. Management are infra finance guru’s after all, so they deserve some credit. In addition FinX large account are bashing this stock to much with the same takes everyday. It’s getting boring.
Sure, in my view not the engineering / management skills of Nebius & hyperscale vision, but extremely undervalued even as simple AI GPU REIT style investment.
That’s why I initiated a trade again at ~$36, which I think will hit ~$100 before or close to year end. When I hit the price target I will take the profit.
Frans Bakker@FransBakker9812
$IREN - Sweetwater 1 - Energization wen? Iren is nearing the moment of energizing their bulk substation at the flagship Sweetwater 1 site in Fisher county Texas. What concrete evidence do we have they are close, and what is the current state of development? Educational post 🧵
English
@FransBakker9812 New site, new site and then new site BUT no new deals….. It is useless…..
English
$IREN - Sweetwater 1 - Energization wen?
Iren is nearing the moment of energizing their bulk substation at the flagship Sweetwater 1 site in Fisher county Texas.
What concrete evidence do we have they are close, and what is the current state of development?
Educational post 🧵
English