Niccan

@WuffettBarken @Rory_Johnston China will access its SPR. Once it exhausts it's SPR then what you are suggesting may happen.

@Rory_Johnston Oil price goes up because total supply < total demand. Removing sanction on Russia/Iran won't make extra oil appear so the oil price will still go up. But it'll remove the discount from sanctioned oil increasing the inflationary pressure.

Even if this were true (which, naw), the 140 million barrels of Iranian oil on water Bessent cites here would offset roughly one week of Hormuz stoppage. We’re now in week 4.

@BeegJj Michael Harvey, RBC Outperform $16

Whitecap Resources is one of the Alberta companies turning our world class reserves into jobs, investment and reliable energy for Canadians and our allies, so it was a pleasure to join their team earlier this week to talk about where we go next as an energy superpower. They are also industry leaders, deploying CO2 to reduce emissions and increase production as part of enhanced oilfield recovery technology. From record production in 2025 to our new energy accord with Ottawa and work on a west coast pipeline, Alberta is firmly back in the driver’s seat and companies like Whitecap are at the heart of that success story.

@12Co08 @ProfPaulNary What would the prospects for Discovery be today had they not acquired Warner Brothers from AT&T?

@ProfPaulNary Cuando comenzó la puja de ofertas las acciones de WBD valían $12 dólares , por eso PSKY ofrecía en el primer acuerdo $19 dólares por acción, como que cotizaban a $24 y PSKY ofrecía en su primera oferta $19? Estás confundido amigo, las acciones estaban bajas y subieron por la puja

Paramount has a new offer for WBD! Is it a superior proposal? Well, maybe.. Paramount has been quiet lately, and, as I suspected, an improved offer was in the works Some $WBD investors may be disappointed that the new offer is still $30 cash, with a small addition of a ticking fee if the deal doesn't close in 2026, but that may be a strategic decision on part of $PSKY And sure, at first, it may seem like only an incremental improvement and, yes, $WBD shareholders would have liked more cash.. Yet, there are multiple significant improvements here that address many of the key WBD board concerns and make this deal more challenging to frame as inferior to Netflix: -Most notably, in the new offer, $PSKY eliminates most of the $4.8B gap that $WBD board highlighted in its rejection of prior $PSKY offers, by agreeing to pay the $2.5B breakup fee to $NFLX and covering up to $1.5B of $WBD refinancing costs. We are talking about $1.75 per share indirect improvement that $PSKY is taking on. -Moreover, Paramount offers more certainty, support, and flexibility for WBD's debt-financing, operating, and performance concerns, and it expresses its willingness to work together on further improving the final terms. As I wrote multiple times, these are the points Paramount should have addressed earlier, and here we are. There are some caveats*, but if we were still at the negotiating table prior to deal announcement, the $PSKY offer looks better. In fact, even given limited information and major uncertainty, I would pick the current version of the $PSKY offer over the current version of the $NFLX offer as long as the final few points of the contract (e.g. MAC clause, etc.) are ironed out. It's just cleaner and simpler. However, WBD's board ultimately has quite a bit of discretion here. As research shows, even a cleaner offer with a potentially higher headline price does not guarantee a win and may not be considered a "Superior Proposal" by the board because there are many interacting factors and sources of risks or uncertainty involved. So it would not be unexpected that the WBD's board rejects this offer as well, even though I think that this offer, despite the same $30 number, is in fact now potentially superior to Netflix, and may just need a bit of a push to become clearly superior. IN SUMMARY: -As long as we acknowledge a few caveats and trust some of the current assumptions, I like this Paramount offer better than the current Netflix offer -However, there is no certainty that $WBD board will see it as a "Superior Proposal." This is especially critical given the prior hostilities between $WBD and $PSKY, and given the fact that Zaslav would likely be more responsive to a bigger win (like getting a $32+ final number from $PSKY) What should Paramount do to get the deal done? - $PSKY needs to pause the hostilities and launch a charm offensive aimed at $WBD, because getting board support would make this deal much easier to get done. -I also can't help it but wonder if a strategic choice was made by $PSKY to stay at $30 for now, and whether there is a bit more powder left for a final sweetener to push $PSKY offer over the finish line, or to further improve the offer if $NFLX increases its own offer. --Here, in terms of pushing the deal through, addressing all of the challenges called out by WBD's board other than the headline price may actually be quite smart and the right strategy for $PSKY. If $WBD responds with something like "this is all great and we don't challenge anything but the price," as long as there is some powder left in $PSKY reserves, it makes it much easier to then throw in a $1-2 headline improvement that should get $WBD board's final commitment or at least bring the majority of $WBD shareholders to support $PSKY. --Also, the fact that this new $PSKY offer will not get the shareholders and investors (which $PSKY needs to support their bid) particularly excited, given that they won't get the $1.75 indirect improvement, is another potential clue for me that there is a good chance to get to a higher final number once all else is set and done. Can't wait to see how $WBD and $NFLX respond. *Caveats: -Although it's impossible to know for certain, I am less convinced today that the $NFLX deal will survive the antitrust scrutiny given the latest news and Senate hearings. This is important, and today it looks like there is a higher probability (as it seems) that $PSKY would do better here, even though it has its own potential AT challenges. But, I am not an antitrust expert, so this is very much up for debate. -Value of the Discovery Global spinoff: this is also still uncertain, and there are two issues here. First, valuation is unclear. Second, how many $WBD shareholders want to deal with receiving cash and DG shares vs. just receiving cash and getting out? Yes, maybe those shares get $2-3 per share, but the probability is uncertain, and cash is still cleaner and simpler here, all else being equal. -Related to DG, the potential debt reshuffling that may affect the final per share amount that $WBD shareholders would get from $NFLX also makes things more complex and uncertain for the existing deal, even if $WBD frames it as a non-issue that will net out the same as the differences would flow to the DG shares (although I'm not sure i agree since the market may price $WBD differently from DG spinoff) -The details of the final deal would still need to be ironed out and finalized in terms of the right clauses and flexibility for $WBD, and, although we have a personal guarantee from the Ellisons, I'd still want to make sure that the $PSKY debt piece is fully secure

@dampedspring $AMZN has an ownership stake in Anthropic. Estimated to be in the 15-20% range.

So do I have this right. naive 80/20 level synthesis $Goog. Cloud renter to others. In house AI for profit. Search getting disrupted $MSFT Cloud renter to others. Ownership stake in pure play AI CO's, second tier in house Ai, renter of AI for product suite, product suite getting disrupted $AMZN. Cloud Renter to others, no AI at all, huge dominant retailer, ad model within retailer disrupted $META. Social Media, Cloud resources only for them, second tier Ai in house, ad model dependent perhaps some ad model disruption Open Ai, Anthropic, XAi pure play Ai.

@deepvalueco $RFA.TO?

Well there goes that excitement

@ronmortgageguy Please educate me. What am I wrong about?

@niccan01 Then you would be wrong

Carney Does A Trade Deal: Canada Gets Chinese EVs & China Buys Our Canola Again Canada reduces the 100% Tariff on Chinese Electric Vehicles to 15% & in turn huge Chinese Tariffs on Canola, Peas & Shellfish reduce similarly A win for Canada? Let's see what Trump thinks 2/

@garyHeff The $WBD board should jump at this "raised" offer and start negotiating with $PSKY. Talk about clutching at straws...

Paramount making the case that they have *already* raised from Dec 4's "not best and final offer" of $30/sh "The Tender offer effectively raised Paramount's bid by over a dollar per share" $PSKY $WBD

@tsxman In addition, Edgepoint increased their position by 3.25% to 15.83%.

$AX.UN two main insiders added millions in the past month into Friday and seem to be buying whatever they can even after a big rally off the bottom before the transition to RFA Financial. Obviously confident on ability to dispose remaining portfolio assets.

BMO marketing $CHE.UN this week, indicated they plan to reduce share count below 100M from 115 now by YE27.

$ET.TO +11% on special dividend, software nearly half the business... still call option in AI workloads and defense programs.

@RagingVentures Priced at 6.875%

Enerflex $EFXT / $EFX.TO is like the little engine that could... today with news that they're issuing $400 mm of new 2031 Senior *Unsecured* Notes and calling $562.50 of 2027 Senior *Secured* 9% Notes. Price talk is 7-7.5% on the new notes. Debt is now sub 1.5x EBITDA. $EFXT is up over 50% this year and has nearly tripled over the last few years. The business generates strong FCF with growth opportunities in compression and power generation. The equity valuation remains undemanding and we continue to hold the bulk of our original shares.

@tsxman @pjreddy Are you speculating that Samir was buying heavily or was there some disclosure indicating such?

@pjreddy Samir was buying heavily. Would be pretty sketchy if anything material came out since. It's a very cheap name from a liquidation perspective. But can you imagine how the market will view a former office REIT which converted into a sub prime bank of one of its largest investors?

Well $AX.UN on fire today. A week ahead of Earnings.

@JaguarAnalytics 24.9% was the adjusted EBITDA margin. The EBITDA margin (unadjusted) was 5.9%

$AXON This market is suddenly so demanding that even a slight miss vs. expectations sends stocks spiraling down -20%. So much to like here. But analysts are concerned about EBITDA margin miss at 24.9% vs 26.1% estimate. Jag's Q3 earnings review: jaguaranalytics.com/wp-content/upl…

@tsxman Samir actually bought an additional $1.2MM in various personal accounts.

$AX.UN's CEO Samir Manji added $344,500 worth of common units on the pullback. Others insiders have added common and prefs as well. Seems like a vote of confidence on the forthcoming deal.

@Bigkev451 $SCCO and most copper miners running up because of a mudslide at a large $FCX copper mine. Explains the drop in $FCX

@B__Digs Aren't you double counting the 15-20% of SS? Also, assigning a value of $4.50 to GN standalone with $20B in debt seems like a stretch. I'd be surprised (but happy) if the winning bid topped $30.

6/6 👑 So yes — Zaslav’s $WBD $40+ SOTP vision is: Ambitious, but Fully supported by deal logic, asset scarcity, and multiple interested strategic buyers. He’s not bluffing.

1/6 $WBD A thread on why #LetZasCook Here's how you get to ~$40/share: 1. S/S (Streaming & Studios) 2027E EBITDA: ~$4.15–$4.4B (fair) Multiple: 18–20x (Big Tech buyer, unique assets) Net Debt: ~$5B Implied Equity: $75–80B Per Share (2.45B): $30–33

@tsxman @grampavicks What % of $AX.UN doe RFA own?