Nickrobin702

@DvdndDiplomats No have a long dated short put on Microsoft. Im up on the position but went back and forth whether I should buy shares or not.

Microsoft had a great day, up 4.61%. I bought 6 shares of $MSFT at $369. Not the largest position, but it is now valued over $2,500. Do you own MSFT?

@DividendDad1 Had a short put on Microsoft that looks like I will be buying with a $356 breakeven so probably will be in by the end of the week. Which I am good with

Any takers on Microsoft? $MSFT

@TaviCosta Once the conflict is over yields will head down. This is a short term issue. With disinflation and lower economic growth before the conflict the spike will hurt the growth more leading to lower and lower yields.

Yes, indeed. 10-year yields are higher. Oil is materially higher. On the deficits side: I’m old enough to remember DOGE… open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/…

@RonDeSantis Short term spike in CPI/inflation before it goes back on its downward trajectory and I would bet at a faster rate. Yields will go down b/c of lower growth and inflation potential

Market seems to be pricing in further inflation. Mortgage rates are also up in recent weeks.

@kurtsaltrichter Besides this spike in oil/commodities from the conflict, inflation is trending downwards. You have a weakening Econ going into the conflict what would a rate hike do? Will more ships go through the strait? You can not have sustained inflation if your losing jobs

I expect the April 10th CPI print to spike 70-100 basis points, coming in north of 3%. And then the Fed is going to hike rates 🥸

@MacroBombastic @HeroDividend That’s not what the bond markets telling us. When the 10y in 9/08 went from 2.2% to 3.8% a year later were th markets predicting higher rates? Look at the economy and breakeven rates. After this short term conflict yields will continue to fall

@HeroDividend Bond market is saying interest rates aren't going down anytime soon mate.

Wait until you find out what this means

@MICH__ELE @DrJStrategy What happened before GFC, S&L crisis, and most recessions we have had? Prices short term go up spikes cpi and that leads to demand construction which crushes the economy. Especially going into an oil price shock with a weak economy.

@DrJStrategy Oil up (was at historic real term lows before the war). Stocks down, bonds down. At what point would you reconsider your position?

Inflation Expectations well anchored and below long term average. 👇

@Desmond40566590 @commonsenseplay Is it common sense? What happened in 08 and in the early 90s? Oil spiked and you had a short pop in CPI, transitory, and then the economy went into a recession leading to lower yields.

@commonsenseplay It's common sense not to buy long term bonds now. Rate cuts are not coming, inflation will be sticky if oil price stays elevated and more infrastructure get damaged. The chances of rate cuts back on the table which will crash TLT

$TLT going green in overnight markets.

@investinguab @commonsenseplay Had a buy just under $87 so down about $.40 so I am feeling pretty good. Thanks for checking in. Long term play that’s paying me 4%+. To wait. Not an overnight trade.

@nickrobin702 @commonsenseplay @nickrobin702 did you lock in that 1% yield a week ago before the drop on $TLT? If not you might have wanted too 😉

I'll just leave this here - let's see what happens next. $TLT / USOIL vs $TLT

@GoldenKazeX @FibonacciInves1 Right the FED will be wrong. The cpi ultimately go lower long term. Just like in 08 or in early 90s the oil shock crushed the economy not ignited inflation.

@nickrobin702 @FibonacciInves1 Yup, higher CPI means fed won't cut rates or perhaps increase them. But we all know that means the consumer is crushed. I'm already getting alerts that airplane flights are getting far more expensive

Break-out or fake-out? 10Y yield is the most important data point to watch. I'm in the fake-out camp. $TLT

@GoldenKazeX @FibonacciInves1 Higher oil from an oil shock with the economy in its current state may see a short term pop in cpi but it will cause disinflation and bring us into a recession

@FibonacciInves1 No way $100/oil results in inflation regarding actually GDP growth. It'll be great for the Texas Permian area tho

@investinguab @commonsenseplay I’m ok. Make sure you lock in those profits. Good luck

@nickrobin702 @commonsenseplay You’re welcome to go on my profile and see what I have been buying.

@investinguab @commonsenseplay How are you playing oil? How am I going to go insolvent making 4%/yr and getting paid monthly?

@nickrobin702 @commonsenseplay I’ll sell when the $TLT bulls are all insolvent. Until then a lot of room for growth for #Oil

@FibonacciInves1 Bought another 200 I’m there with you

The accumulation continues. $TLT Executed: Buy 500 TLT @ $87.2466Mar 11, 2026 3:44 PM ET

@investinguab @commonsenseplay Make sure to sell and actually lock in those profits

@commonsenseplay Yeah me too. I’m not sure what to spend the profits on this year.

@traderhc Look at breakevens or 5y/5y forwards

We're cooking. Bonds just sold off on a clean inflation print. Read that again. CPI came in benign. The 10Y still rose to 4.18%. When good news can't push yields down, the problem isn't inflation. It's term premium. The market wants more compensation to hold long-duration government debt. $TLT breaking below its lower Bollinger Band on a day that should have been bullish for bonds is technically ugly. I think it sees lower this week. Meanwhile $IWM is diverging hard from mega-caps. Down while $QQQ is green. Small caps need lower long rates to breathe, and the bond market just said no. Next Wednesday's FOMC is the real test. The question isn't whether the Fed cuts. It's whether the long end comes down even if they do. What's your read on the long end here?

@AureusMacro @commonsenseplay Just fluctuations TLT moving higher long term. Look at breakevens yield are heading lower

@commonsenseplay Layoffs pointing one way. The long end pointing the other. That divergence is the real story

$TLT

@commonsenseplay Long TLT 👍🏻. Best trade of the year

The selloff in $TLT was driven by renewed inflation fears following the spike in oil prices (as noted by Goldman). With Rubio expected to announce additional supply (possibly from Venezuela), oil prices will ease - and $TLT will resume its rally higher. I bought more today. Let the thesis play out, this is a 12 month trade.

@dampedspring Long duration bonds will out perform. Yields have been falling all year. If you think the terminal rate is 3% what do you think the 10y will go up to? 5%? Rate path is being priced as stable but we know that can change by the end of the week.

FWIW for over a month economic data has been on FIRE. But the bond market has rallied. Some are looking to the cutting cycle for a clue. One thing for sure is we are on pause for March. After that literally anything can happen. But rate patjh is mostly pretty darn stable. We are heading to a 3% neurtal rate. I think the data is going to weaken from extremely hot expectations to okay but not great and we will get more cuts than priced but mostly the market has settled on 3%.

@LukeGromen @robin_j_brooks Yields are going lower. Maybe you get a bounce in yields but the trend is down.

@robin_j_brooks They better hurry up & celebrate, b/c with risk-off & equity vol rising, the fact that Cayman hedge funds (highly levered UST basis trade) having bought ~37% of UST note & bond net issuance since 2022 means 10y yields will bottom soon & begin rising again if risk off continues

Feeling listless and disjointed as I await the inevitable barrage of "#MMT was right all along" posts now that 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4%...