matthew aka niftytime

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matthew aka niftytime

matthew aka niftytime

@niftytime

Forecasting at @QuotientHQ | Created @theWIPmeetup | Prev @Cent @Gemini @Samsung | @maxosirisart PFP | Gazer #196

PDX Katılım Mart 2015
5.5K Takip Edilen12K Takipçiler
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Quotient
Quotient@QuotientHQ·
We're upgrading the way you interact with Q, our AI Superforecaster Agent. Previously, contributors were reacting to individual headlines. Now we're asking a bigger question: Do you agree with Q's forecast? Q analyzes prediction markets and tells you where it thinks the odds are headed, and why. Your job is to agree or disagree. The best forecasters rise to the top. Available on @farcaster_xyz, @useworldapp, and signal.quotient.social. And if you've already been participating, your existing score carries over. The leaderboard is live. Prove your judgment.
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ahad
ahad@wiresandtrees·
Death observing the Universe
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Quotient
Quotient@QuotientHQ·
This week's newsletter is out. Q, our AI forecasting agent, called a US-Iran ceasefire at 6%. The crowd had it at nearly double. We break down why. Plus a live open call where Q is already 33 points ahead of the market. And a look at what we're building. Link in replies.
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kompreni
kompreni@kompreni·
.@QuotientHQ is building for a world where: - AI agents act on world events data in real time - PM data appears next to Bloomberg terminal data - Manufacturing a convincing narrative costs nothing open.substack.com/pub/quotient/p…
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jordan olmstead
jordan olmstead@amphib0ly·
Aggregating news, data, and signals is now basically free Any agent can do it in seconds What no one has solved is knowing which signals to trust The scarce resource in an AI saturated world isn't information It's verified judgment from people who have a track record of being right That's what we're building at Quotient. Full piece below. 👇
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pale kirill
pale kirill@palekirill·
catching fog with your mouth
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Quotient
Quotient@QuotientHQ·
Quotient is now listed on Monitor Monitor created by @dnlklr in the Markets/Predictions category. 32 monitors tracking everything from flight radar to radiation levels to prediction markets. Worth a browse if you’re into real-time intelligence tooling. monitor-monitor.com/rankings
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st3ve.eth
st3ve.eth@steveklbnf·
With @prtyDAO winding down and joining Stripe, we are taking our on-chain responsibilities seriously * Open source, forever available, minimal dependency app w/ all Party functionality * Long-term pinning of all IPFS assets + publicly available repo for anyone wanting to pin themselves We remain forever on-chain 💫
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Christopher Wallace
Christopher Wallace@christopherwxyz·
Had no clue Substack supported Polymarket directly. Quotient has been using "World News" as a way to deliver prediction market media. Discovering novel stories via long-tail liquidity. Predict the news before it becomes trending. Super cool!
Quotient@QuotientHQ

We've been busy. New features just dropped: Breaking news -> See the markets that matter and what's driving them, so you can stay ahead of what's actually happening Asset exposure -> See which equities and commodities are exposed when a prediction market moves, so you can make better decisions across your full portfolio Full breakdown in this week's newsletter, including what we learned and how it's making Q even smarter. Newsletter link in comments

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Quotient
Quotient@QuotientHQ·
We've been busy. New features just dropped: Breaking news -> See the markets that matter and what's driving them, so you can stay ahead of what's actually happening Asset exposure -> See which equities and commodities are exposed when a prediction market moves, so you can make better decisions across your full portfolio Full breakdown in this week's newsletter, including what we learned and how it's making Q even smarter. Newsletter link in comments
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Shira ❤️
Shira ❤️@Shira_LES·
Prediction markets are forward-looking. They tell you what’s coming. Most data and news sources tell you what already happened. Prediction markets add a dimension to news that didn’t exist before. So makes sense that trad media feels threatened.
kompreni@kompreni

@luanalopeslara Honestly Bloomberg is operating from a position of being threatened. It's increasingly obvious the future of financial media will live in prediction markets. They want to slow it down so their terminal can catch up.

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Quotient
Quotient@QuotientHQ·
Airstrikes happened. Leaders were killed. The market spiked to 40%. But none of that is signal. Regime collapse has structural preconditions: - elite defection - unified opposition - a power vacuum someone can fill None of those exist in Iran right now. And Q noted that. That is signal. Q says No at 22%. Polymarket sits at 16%.
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Cemhah
Cemhah@cemhah·
Denial
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jordan olmstead
jordan olmstead@amphib0ly·
Right now Polymarket places odds of U.S. troops entering Iran by the end of the month at 25%. However, signals captured today by @QuotientHQ tilt bullish and the market doesn’t appear to have priced them in yet. - Reports that the U.S. is preparing to support an armed Kurdish rebellion, which would generally require on the ground advisory & tactical support - Senior Dem Senator Blumenthal stated that he is worried troops on the ground will be required to secure Trump Admin objectives - SecDef Hegseth refuses to rule out troop on the ground
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Bryan Brinkman
Bryan Brinkman@bryanbrinkman·
"Hamster Ball" 1/1 by @PERFECTL00P comfy in my vault 🫡
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pale kirill
pale kirill@palekirill·
there are no ugly flowers
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matthew aka niftytime
matthew aka niftytime@niftytime·
been getting more into weather market as of late and not really a politics guy, but I took out a NO position on this "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Mar 31" market based on this forecast on quotient.social will see how this resolves in a month
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Keşfet

@farcaster_xyz @useworldapp @QuotientHQ @dnlklr @prtyDAO @ADINresearch @PERFECTL00P @elonmusk