Niraj Tanna

@RaquelDanielleG @CaVivekkhatri @iManasArora @Jagadeesh0203 @nakulvibhor @ValueIn84502221 @Vivek_Investor @Chart_Wallah108 @MarketScientist @_ChartWizard_ @ChartShala @Mr_Chartist @Portfolio_Bull @SamirPradhann @TheThevaluetrad @Vismaya9999 @STOCKBAGGER1 @Stock_Precision @kushthakkar183 Abt what ?

@nirajtanna @CaVivekkhatri @iManasArora @Jagadeesh0203 @nakulvibhor @ValueIn84502221 @Vivek_Investor @Chart_Wallah108 @MarketScientist @_ChartWizard_ @ChartShala @Mr_Chartist @Portfolio_Bull @SamirPradhann @TheThevaluetrad @Vismaya9999 @STOCKBAGGER1 @Stock_Precision @kushthakkar183 Hello, want to collab with u

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Markets have crashed by 13% since the Middle East war started. Smallcaps are down 22%. I went back and studied exactly what happened during the Russia-Ukraine crash of 2022 — sector by sector, week by week. It's almost the same script playing out again. The Setup — 2022 vs 2026 Russia-Ukraine (Feb–Jun 2022): →War broke out Feb 24. →Brent crude spiked from $90 to $127. →FIIs sold roughly ₹70,000 Cr in a single month. →Nifty dropped from around 18,000 to 15,183 — an 18.4% peak-to-trough fall. →India VIX crossed 30. The worst-hit sectors were IT (down 22%), Realty (down 20%), and Auto (down 18%). Energy and PSU stocks barely flinched — down just 5%. Middle East Crisis (Feb–Mar 2026): →US-Israel-Iran conflict escalated. →Brent crude crossed $100. →FIIs have dumped ₹60,000+ Cr in the March series alone. →Nifty has fallen from around 26,000 to 22,900 — about 13% so far. →India VIX spiked to 27, the highest since June 2024. The worst-hit sectors? Auto (down ~15%), Realty (down ~15%), IT underperforming since February. Energy and PSU names? Down only 5-6%. Same sectors leading the fall. Same sectors holding up. Same FII behaviour. Even the VIX spike is in the same ballpark. Now Here's the Part That Actually Matters — What Happened AFTER the 2022 Bottom Nobody talks about this during a crash. Everyone's too busy doom-scrolling. After Nifty bottomed in June 2022, here's how sectors recovered over the next 3 months: Nifty Auto rallied 45% from the bottom. Metals bounced 35%. Financial Services recovered 30%. Midcaps and Smallcaps both came back 25%. Bank Nifty gained 25%. IT was the last to recover, up just 12%. The pattern is mechanical, not emotional. When FIIs panic-sell, they dump the most liquid, highest-beta names first. When the selling stops, those exact names snap back the hardest. Auto led because it was the most oversold relative to its actual earnings. IT lagged because global tech weakness was a separate issue from the war. Applying the 2022 Template to Today If history rhymes, the sectors that have corrected the most right now should lead the recovery. Here's what's most beaten down: Smallcap 250 index is down 22% from highs. PSU Bank index has crashed 16% in just one month. Auto and Realty are both down around 15%. IT has been quietly underperforming since six months. On the other hand, energy stocks are down only 5-6%. Defensive names like NTPC and Power Grid actually posted small gains on some of the worst crash days. If 2022 is the playbook, Auto and Financials lead the rebound. Metals could outperform if supply disruption keeps commodity prices elevated even after tensions cool. 5 Data Points Beneath the Panic These are the numbers I'm watching more closely than the Nifty level: → FII net shorts are at 250,000 contracts. In 2022, similar levels marked the bottom. Short covering alone can push the market up 5-7% in a few sessions. → India VIX at 27+. In 2022, it peaked around 33 and started dropping before prices recovered. We're close to peak fear but probably not there yet. → DIIs have been net buyers in every single session during this crash. Domestic institutions are quietly accumulating what FIIs are throwing away. Same exact pattern as 2022. → Goldman Sachs just cut India's GDP forecast by 1.1% to 5.9% and downgraded Indian equities from "overweight" to "market weight." For context, Goldman downgraded India in March 2022 as well. The market bottomed 3 months later and rallied 25% by December. Brokerage downgrades near bottoms are a feature, not a bug. → India's Equity Sentiment Indicator has slipped into oversold territory. Historically, this has been one of the more reliable contrarian signals. ⚠️ THE HONEST PART — WHY THIS TIME COULD BE DIFFERENT I'm not writing this to sell you a feel-good "buy the dip" story. There are real differences between 2022 and now that you should understand before deploying capital: Crude at $98-100 is more sustained this time. The Strait of Hormuz is an existential chokepoint for global oil supply in a way that Ukraine never was. If Hormuz gets disrupted, crude doesn't stop at $100 — it goes to $120+. Goldman raised India's CPI forecast by 70 basis points. If inflation stays sticky, RBI won't be able to cut rates to support recovery the way it eventually did post-2022. This conflict involves direct US military engagement, not just economic sanctions. The escalation risk is structurally higher. Valuations aren't as cheap as 2022. Nifty was trading at ~18x PE when it bottomed in June 2022. Right now we're still at roughly 20x. Another 5-10% down before we hit genuine value territory is very possible. And specific sectors face real headwinds regardless of war resolution. Cement companies are looking at ₹200-250 per tonne cost increases from higher pet-coke. FMCG and paint companies derive 20-50% of input costs from crude-linked materials. Airlines are getting crushed between high fuel costs and no pricing power. Singapore refining margins have actually gone negative at -$9.4 per barrel. The pattern rhymes. But it's not a photocopy. 📋 THE FRAMEWORK — How to Position Right Now Based on the 2022 recovery template overlaid with current correction data, here's how I'd sort the sectors: Likely to recover first when tensions ease: Auto (most oversold vs fundamentals), Financials and Banks (FII short covering + rate cut narrative returns), Metals (supply disruption keeps prices elevated + potential China stimulus). Slower recovery: IT (global macro weakness is independent of the war), FMCG and Paints (input cost headwinds will persist even if crude softens to $85-90). Be careful with: Airlines (direct crude exposure, zero pricing power at current load factors), Oil marketing companies (refining margins have turned negative — BPCL, HPCL, IOC will bleed until crude stabilises). Contrarian opportunity if you can handle the volatility: PSU Banks — down 16% in a month, many now offering dividend yields above 5% at these prices. That's higher than most FDs. And smallcaps with zero debt plus purely domestic revenue — these are insulated from both crude and rupee risk. One Final Thing Nifty crashed 18.4% in 2022. It felt apocalyptic. People were liquidating SIPs. Within 6 months, the index was back at pre-crash levels. Within 12 months, it was at all-time highs. The investors who sold at the bottom missed a 25%+ rally. The ones who bought during peak fear compounded at 30%+. I'm not saying the bottom is in today. It might not be. Another 5% down is a real possibility. But here's what I am saying: every single geopolitical crash in Indian market history — 2001, 2008, 2020, 2022 — has been a buying opportunity when viewed from 12 months later. Every single one. The question isn't whether the market will recover. It always does. The question is whether you'll still have capital and conviction when it does. ..... Data references: ICICI Direct Geopolitical Impact Report (March 2026), NSE India, Bloomberg, Trading Economics. Disclaimer: Not investment advice. Markets can absolutely fall further. This is a data comparison for educational purposes. Always do your own research. Save this. Come back in 90 days. Let's see how it ages. Follow @raghavwadhwa for more data-driven market breakdowns.

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#BREAKING POSITIVE FOR STOCK MARKET📈🔥 U.S. President Donald Trump says #Iran🇮🇷 leaders want to resume negotiations and that he has agreed To talk with them,according to a phone interview with The Atlantic. #Iran #IranWar #WW3 #us #Trump #Dubai #dubaiattack

@Hirengabani23 Even accending channel also has

💫This pattern has an almost 100% success rate.

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@iManasArora Nifty daily chart also has rsi divergence

Markets behaved exactly as expected. Extreme volatility. Every index made a fresh low today. Some bounced. Some didn’t. But look past the noise. On 21/01/26 Stocks above 20 MA were 190. Today 01/02/26 Markets broke below the 21/01 lows. Yet stocks above 20 MA jumped to 419. That’s a 120 percent increase in participation while price made a new low. That is clear relative strength. Same thing happened in Feb Mar 23. Peak pessimism on the surface. Improving breadth underneath. Price and participation is all that matters. Rest is noise. #BroTip

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@Rishikesh_ADX Wait for inside bar & then breakout of it on lower time frame

What should be your PLAN in this stock... ????

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I am genuinely surprised why more people in India aren’t talking about this openly. If you want clean drinking water, you have to buy a water purifier and then pay 18% GST on it. If you want clean air, buy an air purifier again, 18% GST. If you want 24×7 electricity, don’t rely on the grid buy an inverter. If you want quality education for your child, forget government schools, you have to go private, where fees run into lakhs. Government schools are not even a serious option for most middle-class families. If you want good healthcare, you go to a private hospital and once you step inside, your bank balance starts bleeding. Many families literally take loans to survive medical emergencies. Now leave all this aside. Even pure food is hard to get. Paneer is adulterated. Dal is artificially coloured. Street food? Nobody knows what’s being mixed dirty hands, sweat, sometimes worse. We just hope nothing happens. Try walking outside: • Footpaths barely exist. • Vehicles come from all directions. • People don’t follow lanes. • Potholes everywhere. One wrong step and: you might get hit by a vehicle, or you might fall and injure yourself And who takes responsibility? No one. Ask questions and suddenly you’re: • called deshdrohi • told to “go to Pakistan” Why should expectations from my own country be compared with Pakistan? When India plays cricket, do we compare ourselves with Kenya or Zimbabwe? No. We compare ourselves with Australia, England, big teams. Then why, as a country, shouldn’t we compare ourselves with: China, the USA, Japan, Australia other large economies? People say “India is Vishwaguru.” If that were true: • why are so many millionaires leaving India? • why are top celebrities and athletes settling abroad? • why do people with money still choose foreign education, healthcare, and passports? Loving your country doesn’t mean staying silent. Asking questions is not anti-national. Expecting clean air, safe roads, honest food, affordable healthcare, and quality education is not a crime. Patriotism is not blind worship. Patriotism is demanding better because we believe India deserves better. If this made you uncomfortable, maybe it needed to be said. Share it. Talk about it. Silence won’t fix anything.

#Titan #weekly #BREAKOUTSTOCKS Text book chart breaking it's all time high.. #trading #Investing #StockMarkets @AnkurPatel59 @caniravkaria @DiscretePriti @iManasArora @Jagadeesh0203 @nakulvibhor @ChartAddict007 @ChartShala @chartmojo @VijayThk @VVVStockAnalyst @ThetaVegaCap

@AnkurPatel59 Setup B because of high volume green candles

QUIZ TIME 🎯 You have two charts in front of you. The market conditions are Good for trading. You are allowed to open ONLY ONE position. Question: Which chart are you more likely to trade Setup A or Setup B ? & Why ? (Assume both are liquid and meet your risk rules.) Answer Below 👇

@Vismaya9999 Dixon , eternal

Done with Short date with Indigo 😀 Booked profits I expect it can go down to 4500 but I don’t want to be so greedy but 100% returns in a day n that’s enough for me Will short BSE next for little gains Will list out high PE stocks to short in these markets 👍 #IndigoCrises