ScottBot

If u make 50-100k off a small investment on a random meme at this part of the cycle you could potentially flip that into retirement in a couple years if you play your cards right Don’t just gamble it away

I’m long $SIVE at $140M. I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed. $SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers. Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck. But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles. They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova. And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally. 

 $POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers… But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself?

 It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B. 

 So now at $130m:

- - You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET. 

 - Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI. And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential. 

 On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”. 

And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers." 

Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come. 

I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt.

 It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week. Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo. 

Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in. 

Downside risk: 
- execution (as always) 
- dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others. - $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B
- CPO ramp gets delayed. 

I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC. 

Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier. 

 When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M. I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck). 

 But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up. Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers. 

 If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures. Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated. Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622. This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI. TLDR: InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations. 

 $SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp. 

I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst). 

 The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.

1 million context window: Now generally available for Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Sonnet 4.6.

There’s a huge risk in even beginning the process, too (as proponents of the talking filibuster have been calling for). Sen. Mike Lee and other conservatives have primed the GOP base to believe it’s possible to sustain a talking filibuster as a way to pass the SAVE America Act. Sure, that’s technically true. But as Thune pointed out here, it’s never been successful. And Thune has continued to maintain that there isn’t enough GOP support for tabling all Democratic amendments, which is the only way to ensure that the bill can pass as-is — even putting aside Trump’s demand for more provisions to be added to it. When it ultimately fails, will Lee & other proponents just throw up their hands and move on? I doubt it. The base will be pissed, and that could get ugly for GOP leaders.

🚨POLE COMPARISON AT AUSTRALIA 2022: 1:17.868 2023: 1:16.732 2024: 1:15.915 2025: 1:15.096 2026: 1:18.518

Trump in 2018:

My favorite word is California, it’s most aesthetic looking and sounding word. And no matter where I travel or how much I enjoy my time there, when I’m landing in San Francisco I’m always smiling from ear to ear like an idiot having one of the best moments of his life. It’s corny but I’m euphoric every single time People clown on CA due to the arrogant woke culture, perception of moral bankruptcy and the corruption, but cities like SF and LA, while they have their charms, are ~2% of what California has to offer. There’s dozens of better cities and towns to live in and raise a family in. These people don’t know what we have here, or that those of us born here won the human lottery Most of the state is a garden of Eden. Even the boring Central Valley has top-3 most fertile soil on earth and produces 3/4 of all U.S. fruit, 1/3 of vegetables, 1/5 of dairy. The state has temperate weather all year, some of the best beaches in the world, the most pristine mountains, forests and lakes. It is unusually highly concentrated in gold, and only an estimated 10-15% of reserves were mined during the gold rush. It’s home to 2000+ year old redwoods, the tallest and largest by volume trees on earth. As its own country, California would be the 4th largest economy, with an average yearly GDP growth of *7.2%* from 2021-2025, currently on pace to replace Germany this decade as the 3rd largest economy behind only the U.S. and China The Ohlone Native Americans of the Bay Area are believed to have had the most leisure time of any people group known in history, with over 90% of their time being leisure due to the land being so plentiful with food. No idea what happened here in prehistory for it to be such a blessed land but even with the spiritual decay and rampant corruption, it feels like there’s a protective blessing of abundance and beauty that can’t be overcome (at least yet) California is the crowned jewel of the American continents, and my dream is to see it spiritually revived. I hope someday God removes its corrupt rulers and gives it back to noble people so it can be brought to its potential glory