
Nathaniel Whittemore
38.6K posts

Nathaniel Whittemore
@nlw
Host @AIDailyBrief // Founder & CEO @besuper_ai


They beat Grok 4.5 on price too, crazy



Prime Intellect raises $130M Series A to help enterprises build their own AI agents techcrunch.com/2026/07/08/pri…







We need a world cup against aliens. That would cure us.


🚨 NEWS: Commerce is expected to lift export controls on Fable tonight, a senior White House official tells me.

🚨 BREAKING: Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick has officially lifted the export control order on Anthropic's Fable 5

In the newsletter, I wrote about one worrying, plausible path. One in which the AI buildout continues to be seen as a quasi- nuclear arms race against China, and policymakers feel compelled to impose austerity on the non-AI economy to free up real resources for the buildout.


The entire AI buildout — and the narrative around perceived shortages — hinges on how quickly Anthropic and OpenAI can grow. Their contracts alone account for more than half of the roughly $2 trillion in hyperscaler revenue backlogs. Any change in revenue scaling (+ or -) could completely change the prevailing narrative. Unlike advertising, reselling compute is highly capital-intensive and must be built well ahead of demand. Pre-committing and building capacity for hundreds of billions in combined Anthropic and OpenAI revenue is a massive bet on continued rapid scaling from both companies. Misforecasting that demand could prove extremely value-destructive, given the core characteristics of the hyperscaler business: fixed capacity built well in advance of variable demand, paired with long-term deflationary pricing pressure. Neoclouds represent viable emerging competition, Nvidia retains significant leverage (the opposite dynamic from the later x86 era), and both Anthropic and OpenAI have strong incentives to drive token cost deflation. This is occurring against a backdrop of elevated costs. Price per token is not declining as quickly as many expected, most paid tiers have shifted to token-based pricing, and tight supply in high-bandwidth memory continues to pressure margins. The regulatory and political environment remains uncertain. AI faces growing public skepticism, and the current administration has shown caution toward concentrated market power in frontier AI — particularly with Anthropic, given differing political alignments on safety, energy constraints, and related issues. Why should any single company effectively control the development of digital god at this scale? I’m reminded of a question an old mentor used to ask: “Are you certain nothing will go wrong over the next 3–5 years?” As@GavinSBaker wisely puts it, the three most important words in investing are “I don’t know.” Humility remains essential — in both directions.




