Jason Thane

@DavidSacks Thanks for this.

I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.

In light of what happened, I'm doubling down on skills like /improve. A frontier model got pulled. If it happened once, it's gonna happen again. Fable today. 4.9 tomorrow or maybe gpt 6 one day. So, treat intelligence as borrowed. Drain intelligence when it's available. Build a catalog of plans today. Then implement later with a cheaper, open source, or a model you control. Build the backlog now. github.com/shadcn/improve

@dbasch @photomatt This is currently happening, and all we have to do is let them.

Imagine if someone like Elon took a look at the current state of healthcare and decided to make that their SpaceX. In 20 years, it would be perfectly possible for average people to have every possible health indicator monitored in a non-intrusive way. Virtually all diseases would be caught early, and for many this would mean the difference between certain death and a minor procedure. Medical mistakes would be a memory of a brutal past where doctors operated with extremely fragile processes instead of standards closer to commercial aviation. Drugs would be extremely personalized, helping people be healthy and fit with much less effort. Healthcare would be focused on prevention, as it should be. Incredible amounts of unnecessary suffering would be avoided. Most doctors today will say this is impossible because of bureaucracy and the slowness of medical advances, like space tech experts said SpaceX was a dream 20 years ago. An Elon-like entrepreneur would say "oh yeah? Watch me." The person to tackle this would be one of the most important figures in the history of humanity.

Good idea

@yishan @RoKhanna Exactly. The very notion of “right” and “left” posits that both are essential. Those who demonize one or the other are the real danger.

@RoKhanna Functional countries just choose to do both of these things because they’re not idiotically polarized into believing they are exclusive opposites.

This the basic difference. Republicans believe that that if you let the wealthy spend capital it will make Americans prosperous. Democrats believe that the federal government investing in the healthcare & education of our people will make America prosperous & productive.

No, you don't get it. He does not have $1 trillion sitting in cash, it is 99% stock in his companies. To make that wealth liquid would mean selling all that stock which would swiftly destroy *both* the companies (Tesla, SpaceX, others) and the wealth. If he sold it all, he'd end up with maybe $100b max, several hundred thousand people would be out of work, the companies ruined and many of their suppliers also ruined. Okay, but now Elon has $100b in cash, and can "solve the world's problems". $100b divided by the world's 8 billion people is $12 If you were in charge, several of the most innovative industrial companies in the world would be destroyed, hundreds of thousands out of work, and space would again close to human civilization for another generation. But everyone on earth could have one nice meal and you could revel in your altruism.

@yishan @InFoTheLongTerm Agree

@InFoTheLongTerm Yeah, this is roughly what I think too. Seems realistic.

Asked to predict what SpaceX will do 12 months after the IPO: My basic take is that it runs to $175 (in MK 2.3 trillion) pretty quickly before it chills out and starts to drop after that. I'm thinking 6-8 months into the IPO, we go to 88.5 (1.065 trillion), and then recover. So, 1 year after the IPO, we're 122.5 (1.61 trillion) and recovering on a healthy slope. Bookmark this and come back in a year to see if I was right.

@beffjezos 12-banger. Mid

>doesn't bet against Elon >Wins.

@TimSweeneyEpic @tamaybes Synergies!

@tamaybes Corporations do this too!

One interesting pattern with Fable 5 is that it will often say things that are gibberish when I use it for coding. Things like "The morning's slim-scan fix cured the scan hang", "this is a latent-drift API-shape wrinkle", etc. When I ask why it does this, Fable explains that it invents codenames while reasoning about the problem, then fails to realize they're meaningless to me. Its neuralese is blending into its output because of a theory-of-mind failure about what's in its head vs. mine.

@PhilipJohnston So exciting.

💪

@john_ssuh It’s all just Markdown in a file system. Anything else is a waste.

Increasingly, I believe companies may need to be rebuilt from the ground up, where you have a single timeline of all observability + product metrics + file changes laid out in a retrievable system, like Datadog + Posthog + Google Drive + Slack (really unified filesystem of Claude Code chats + Codex chats). This might be the new data foundation for any and all companies to maximize AI. Needs to be rebuilt because keeping track of diffs on existing system basically impossible to produce longitudinal information on decisions and rollbacks, something coding agent storage companies are actively trying to figure out, but this should extend to businesses as a whole. Highly skeptical existing businesses will adopt this though because it means overhauling everything about their instrumentation and business data, but I think businesses built on this foundation probably can execute 100x better and faster

Well deserved.

@MTSlive That’s because they are selling a less valuable product.

MINI SITUATION RECAP: OpenAI plans to undercut Anthropic’s pricing. In light of massive Anthropic revenue growth and enterprises’ desire to cut token spending, OpenAI is considering lowering prices across all its models. If OpenAI significantly cuts prices, it could eat into both Anthropic’s enterprise share and both labs’ profit margins.

@sierracatalina Seems like everything we do is bloat!

skills are bloat.

Don’t confuse standing up for what is right with standing up for what is wrong, just for the sake of standing up.

Fable 5 seems outstanding so far. Wheeeee!

We can keep going.. shall we keep going?

Also a Cybertruck that actually lives up to its reveal.

Agree

The same country that put humans on the Moon in 1969 now takes an average of 4.5 years to approve major infrastructure permits.. longer than it took to build the Panama Canal.  Transmission lines average 10 years from permitting to completion. The bottleneck to abundance is not technology, but BUREAUCRACY!