NOthoritarian

@Reuters Feels like this is the "How is started" portion of a future meme.

Passengers on a train in Budapest broke into song celebrating Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar's landslide victory over Viktor Orban reut.rs/4ehVxp1

@tleilax___ No shipping company would use USD1 and it's not mentioned specifically by Iran.

Trump family is directly benefiting from the toll fee at Hormuz.

@DonMiami3 Markets priced in a worse outcome with more escalation and no end in sight. Things are far from ideal but market hedging is unwinding.

The markets ability to ignore the Strait being more closed than it was during the *conflict* is a head scratcher, no doubt - East Asia and Europe are still cooked if this continues

@sentdefender They say crypto but don't reference specific stablecoins...but the Trump tie in makes for good click fodder.

Iran is demanding that oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz make toll payments in the form of cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin and stablecoins such as Tether’s USDT or the Trump family’s USD1. Vessels have been told to email Iranian authorities prior to passage through the area with details regarding their cargo, which authorities will then respond with a quote for passage through the toll to be paid in digital currency, reportedly set at $1 per barrel of oil, according to the Financial Times.

@DrEliDavid 80–95%+ of launches are from mobile units that are not in fixed locations but discovered as the campaign progressed. Launch sites also include support/storage/tunnel areas from which these mobile units operate.

אתם רוצים להגיד לנו ש-40 יום לתוך המלחמה, שבה שני חילות האוויר הטובים בעולם הפציצו עשרות אלפי יעדים בתוך איראן, עדיין השארתם את "עשרות אתרי שיגור" האלה ו-"תשתיות ייצור מרכזיות של המשטר הטרור האיראני במספר מרחבים באיראן" ללילה האחרון?

This is wild: Citrini sent a dude with $15,000 cash, recording sunglasses, and a pack of Cuban cigars to the Strait of Hormuz. What he found flips everything Wall Street thinks about the strait on its head. Every hedge fund, every macro desk, every retired general on CNBC is watching the same AIS shipping data to price Hormuz risk. The analyst signed a pledge at an Omani checkpoint promising not to gather information, then smuggled in a gimbal, a microphone kit, and a 150x zoom Leica camera past the border officer who inspected his bag. What he discovered on the ground: the AIS data everyone is trading on is missing roughly half of what's actually transiting the strait on any given day. Ships are going dark, spoofing destinations, broadcasting "CHINESE CREW OWNER" through transponder fields to avoid getting hit. Iran's ghost fleet is running 29+ laden tankers inside the Gulf with transponders off, moving an estimated $3B in crude to Malaysia since the war started. The entire market is pricing a "closed" strait off satellite imagery and transponder data that has a 50% blind spot. Every oil model, every supply forecast, every macro call built on AIS throughput numbers is working from a dataset that systematically overstates the disruption. When the signals deliberately go dark, the people staring at dashboards are the last to know what's happening. Citrini figured that out by putting a guy on a speedboat 18 miles from the Iranian coast while Shahed drones flew overhead. The gap between "what AIS says" and "what's actually transiting" is the most mispriced variable in energy right now.

@bryan_johnson Grok...how should I respond to this? 🤔

After chilling a bit on social media, seems obvious that it decides how people think.

Grok: OSINTdefender is not a highly reliable source, especially on fast-moving claims involving US military losses or incidents over Iran. It has a mixed-to-poor track record in this specific conflict, repeatedly pushing unverified or later-debunked stories that align with Iranian narratives before walking them back when officially denied.

A McDonnell-Douglas ACES II (Advanced Concept Ejection Seat) from a U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle has been found by residents in Southern Iran, the whereabouts or status of the pilot and weapons officer is currently unknown, with unconfirmed reports that one or both of the crewmembers have been captured by members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

@munster_gene User experience has never been Microsoft's strength. It doesn't appear to be in their DNA. Apple has taken full advantage of that.

For the narrative on $MSFT to change, they have to make better AI products.

Right....probably didn't really accomplish what he intended here with this speech, but essentially affirmed what he said Tuesday almost verbatim. War winding down, 2-3 weeks. People didn't like the words stone age, which was typical Trump posturing aimed at Iranian leadership (he wants a deal). There were many doomsayers who thought he might actually announce ground troops tonight. Clearly not happening. He actually said Iran would need to sell their oil to try and rebuild, which further highlights he's not interested in taking Kharg Island or disrupting Iran oil infrastructure.

We are seeing a market wide overreaction right now, this ALWAYS happens. The worst thing you can do right now is panic. Trump didn't say anything new and has given a timeline for the war to start "winding down" There will be a huge bounce soon. I'll come back to this.

Right...'we're nearing completion, 2-3 weeks to mop up', SOH will open naturally, etc. Very similar to what he said Tuesday which drove the market up 1000+. His tone was directed at Iranian leadership to try and drive them to a deal, which is his ultimate trophy. Feels like an over response in thin after hours trading. If VIX spikes tomorrow, will certainly be taking the other side.

The worst case - a ground invasion wasnt announced, so I’m not sure why the market is panicking.

@XVG_MD @amitisinvesting Thanks bro. Happy trading.

@nothoritarian @amitisinvesting Bro you cant be this stupid

TRUMP'S ADDRESS TO THE NATION TONIGHT ARE CAUSING FUTURES TO GO RED. 1. Trump said that the war is essentially over but that the US would continue a bombing campaign for 2 weeks. Market did not like that. 2. Trump said that if a deal is not reached in the next 2 weeks then the US will conduct strikes on energy infrastructure in Iran. Market did not like that. 3. Trump said that NATO countries are doing nothing to help and that if they want oil they should either buy it from the US or go to the Strait and take it themselves. Markets once again did not like that Trump is essentially downplaying the importance of the Strait being open by claiming that oil can easily be bought from the US. Overall, this was supposed to be a speech that confirmed to the markets that the war was coming to a near end. Although Trump said that, it was not implied given his other statements. Oil is now above $103. Gold and Silver are down. The S&P is losing 1% overnight. We did make a 3.75% move on the S&P, adding $2T+ to the stock market in the past 48 hours. It would not surprise me or should surprise anyone if we give some of that back, but the reason for why we are giving it back (more escalation in the war) is actually why we seem to be seeing the downside momentum overnight. This might just be low volume, this might easily flip green tomorrow as the market goes back to thinking the war will be over, or this might actually create a downslide that loses any momentum we achieved over the past 2 days because of the uncertainty that once again has been created due to the Strait being closed and the war potentially continuing to escalate. Markets now decide how they feel about this tomorrow.

@Jason Essentially he said nothing else different than what drove the market up bigly Tuesday and today...just delivery tone and 'stone age' comments which is classic Trump rhetoric to try and drive them to sign off on a deal before US exits in the next 2-3 weeks.

That address seems to have helped

After hours over response here. He essentially didn't say anything different here from what drove a deep green market Tuesday, other than some Trumpism stone age comments which is just posturing to try and get them to sign off on a deal. Same clear 'nearing completion' narrative with 2-3 week finale time line. No mention of any ground game, which some had feared. Same SOH will open when US ends campaign, which again highlights near term exit and reinforces that they will not try a messy or elongated SOH military clearing. Even a conciliatory note which shows additional constraint on oil infrastructure: “They are going to want to be able to sell oil, because that is all they have to try and rebuild.”

Gold and silver are COLLAPSING after Trumps address to the nation. Capital is rotating. Guess where it’s going?

@DougAMacgregor Not happening. This is not a source to reference.

👀

@zerohedge Didn't say anything new from when the markets were up today. Same wrapping up in 2-3 weeks. Yes, some stone age rhetoric but that's classic Trumpism trying to push Iran to a peace deal/preemptively open SOH, etc.

S&P futures -0.9% Nasdaq futures -1.1%

@OptionsMir Quality long always wins eventually. Not sure I would be playing calls or puts for tonight though.

so what’s the play if you trade headlines here? buy calls because Trump and Rubio are saying objectives are complete? how do you factor in any response lran or even Trump makes after the market closes?

This op-ed admits the data and models are “fragmented” and still developing, yet calls for sweeping capital shifts. That’s acting with complete confidence on uncertain inputs. This is not sound policy or disciplined investing and opens the door to fiduciary and legal risk if those assumptions prove wrong.

If we don’t invest in reducing physical climate risk now, we’ll pay for it later reut.rs/4sFiDuc reut.rs/4sFiDuc

@BoSnerdley His HOA.

Of what? Don Lemon floats a run for president thedailybs.com/2026/04/01/don…