nathan

*POWELL: NO SIGN PAST FED BOND BUYING WAS INFLATIONARY oh

You raise interest rates is to defer economic activity into the future from the present and you lower it to bring activity from the future forward to the present. If the world suddenly has 10-20% less oil for 6-12 months, do you want more or less activity now vs in 6-12 months?

Doesn't matter right now, but the Frontier Lab models are totally broken. Current landscape: -Memory 70% GM, NVDA 75%, TSM 65% GMs. ODMs negligible, hyperscalers doing ok, though 100/610b in capex was memory price increases so might get a lot tougher -Frontier labs are incinerating capital like its sport. Back to the trough over and over, and since inference costs are variable, the higher the revs, the proportionate the losses. There has been zero signs of break away -Chinese models are ripping off the US labs which not only craters the value of the training runs, but allows for smaller cheaper models because rather than sorting a giant corpus, you get clean data via prompt extraction. These smaller models and Google funding Gemini with Search profits are keeping a lid on pricing. This is contributing to the huge losses in the ecosystem -Usage is so vertical that plenty of capital is willing to assist in land grab mode, but I don't think this model is sustainable at all At this time there are basically three winners - Chips/DC suppliers, consumers, and Enterprises that can arb the cheap tokens. Maybe someone can replace half their accounting department for 50k in tokens. Huge savings for the enterprises. But 1) the frontier labs have no good way of capturing that value and will continue to have huge losses 2) the market is telling you that software that will likely be the modality automation is enabled on (as shown today by Ant), is also going to have price compression via seats. This is not a sustainable equilibrium. The models need to find a better way of capturing value. Software cos that understand the proprietary nature of the data and workflows they provide won't sit idly by and less revs get cut by seat loss. The most AI market friendly outcome, I believe, is that software actually ends up being ok, and what actually does get fucked is the white collar labor market.

BofA: Deepseek 2.0? We don’t think so, chips positively levered to AI adoption

My plan would restore power to the people and restore confidence in our democracy. 74% want Election Day to be a holiday. 75% believe gerrymandering is a major problem. 83% support requiring an ID to vote. Get to work, Congress. Give the people what they want and need.

09/09

On single sequencer L2s, if you're trading securities, "This is where the questions about whether something is actually decentralized or not become very tricky...if you have a matching engine that's controlled by one entity...then we're going to have to think about that...and the people running those things are also going to have to think about that if they're matching securities transactions."