Nutbutter
13K posts
Nutbutter
@nutbuttergrowth
america first. meritocratic. racist intolerant. inappropriate. my polish family has been horrifically oppressed since the 1910s. end racism.
Earth Katılım Şubat 2015
485 Takip Edilen443 Takipçiler
Erik er født, bor og arbejder i reservatet.
Erik er navajoindianer.
Dansk
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@LukeGromen @MarylandHODL21 the overlords blessed this war.
wealth consolidation. 1 >2 > 3.
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10y UST yield (blue, RS1)
USDJPY*oil (red, LS)
USDCNY*oil (green, RS2)
Choices:
1. Let 10y UST yields spike, hitting stocks, housing, & economy.
2. Print USD into an oil spike to cap 10y yields, hitting USD.
3. Walk away, granting Iran a strategic victory.
Let's watch.
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@ActuallyClimber Phong's tweet on % retail holders made me even more pessimistic about these companies, many of which have totally decimated shareholder trust.
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Written Nov 4 when Bitcoin was at $105k. I believe people severely underestimate $MSTRs reliance on 1 or greater mNAV. Recently when Saylor talked a few weak companies into buying STRC at the same time to show strength, MSTR common then had to be ATM’d twice as much to keep amplification from rising. Of course maybe I’m wrong as I’ve been before sometimes. That’s why they call it a thesis. I’ve always liked trying to predict the future as it’s all a tree of potential outcomes. I am currently all cash except for about 2% of net worth in AMD long term call spreads and some cash secured META puts.
Climb That Ladder@ActuallyClimber
Ultimately it relies on bitcoin hitting new highs frequently enough. Eventually, I think this fails to happen and the house of cards implodes. 1. Bitcoin fails to hit new highs for 4,5,6 years in the future 2. mNAV dropping to 0.8-0.9 as little to no yield is happening. 3. STRD dividend froze 4. During a bear market, their 30% amplification becomes 60% and higher due to NAV drop. 5. Average pref yield at the time capital was raised may be 10%, so 10% cost on 60% pref to NAV means 6% NAV bleed per year just to maintain dividend payments. 6. MSTR doesn’t want to sell common shares under 1 mNAV. They don’t want to sell other pref shares as amplification is already way above aim. They decide to sell Bitcoin, claiming it’s only the higher cost coins to possible stretch out ROC dividends. 7. People question if Bitcoin will recover (this is a REAL bear market.. not these 12-24 month events we’ve had in the past). 8. Investors realize this all could blow up. 9. As MSTR keeps selling Bitcoin, they’re hated by Bitcoiners and Mstr common shareholders alike and blamed for the lengthened Bitcoin bear market. 10. Mstr selling Bitcoin makes “amplification” cross over 100%, also made more likely by the negative story and price crush of Bitcoin, dropping NAV further. 11. The only way out of the perpetual preferreds is to file bankruptcy. 12. STRF runs up before bankruptcy. Since they are the senior pref AND have a moving liquidation preference, this is the only perceived safe haven. 13. All other prefs get crushed, anticipating little to no liquidation value. 14. Common shareholders realize they are entitled to ZERO bitcoin per share in liquidation once amplification exceeds 100%. Common trades at 0.15 mNAV. 15. Liquidation occurs and laws are changed to ensure this never happens again. Some STRF holders do ok but everyone else gets little to nothing. 16. Bitcoin, after going down and sideways for a few years, now that the ultimate leverage player (MSTR) is liquidated, climbs much higher. 17. Bitcoin wins anyway (maybe).
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I support President Trump and believe he has done an excellent job thus far.
I do not support troops on the ground in Iran.
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well Mr. President, you are now getting a lower stock market and higher oil prices today 😂
amit@amitisinvesting
TRUMP: “You know, I thought oil prices would be up more and the stock market would be down more after the war. I guess the American people have faith in me.”
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We don’t need a central government. We need to remove the parasites from our lands.
Lily Tang Williams@Lily4Liberty
Massive Nebraska wildfires have burned over 800,000 acres. Generational ranches have been devastated. Farmers & ranchers across the country are sending hay & feed, to help their brothers. This is a real America story that is not covered by the media.
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Why did Hollywood think paedophilia and r.a.p.e jokes about Bob Saget was so funny? It is truly hard to even believe that this was aired in front of a live audience.
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@unusual_whales if i was president id want my face on a gold coin.
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BREAKING: U.S. Treasury is working to put President Trump's signature on new paper currency, a first for a sitting president, per AP
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So, just a wee bit more... (good for AI infra you would think)
Evan@StockMKTNewz
Meta Platforms $META just said it plans to now spend $10 Billion on its AI data center in El Paso, Texas, up from a prior commitment of $1.5B - CNBC
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Just enough time for troops to be in position.
Geiger Capital@Geiger_Capital
Trump now extending the deadline 10 days… The war resumes on Easter.
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@_Investinq @allthingsf74065 biggest conern about helium is not doing duck voices on my boy’s birthday.
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The head of Europe's central bank just went on record and said financial markets don't understand what they're in for (Save this).
This is Christine Lagarde saying the damage is already done, and most people have no idea.
Here is what she actually said.
The US and Israel struck Iran on and within days, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of the world's oil and natural gas.
Markets shrugged and investors assumed it would blow over fast but Lagarde says that assumption is dangerously wrong.
She told The Economist that technical experts are not talking about months for a recovery, they are talking about years.
The infrastructure, extraction, refineries, distribution networks has already taken damage that cannot simply be rebuilt on a short timeline.
Then she dropped a detail most investors have completely missed, Helium travels through the Strait of Hormuz.
Helium is the invisible ingredient inside every advanced microchip on earth.
It cools the machines, purges the chambers, and delivers the precision modern semiconductors depend on.
Qatar supplies roughly 35% of the world's commercial helium and Qatar's facilities have gone dark.
Helium spot prices have already surged past $450 per thousand cubic feet and most chip fabricators carry less than three months of inventory.
The world is building AI data centers at record speed, and the raw material that makes those chips possible is suddenly scarce.
Meanwhile, Brent crude has already hit $99 a barrel, with earlier spikes past $120 and gasoline in the U.S. has jumped over 30% since the war began.
Iraq has cut 1.5 million barrels per day while Saudi Arabia paused its largest refinery.
Europe is now staring at a second energy crisis with gas storage at just 30% capacityheading into this.
And the ECB, rather than cutting rates to soften the blow, is now considering hiking rates to fight the inflation surge.
This means a slow economy, rising prices and tightening monetary policy, all at once.
Lagarde's core warning is this, markets are not pricing in reality.
StockMarket.News@_Investinq
The man who manages $11 trillion just said two words that should terrify every person on the planet. "Global recession." Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the largest asset manager in human history sat down with the BBC and laid out the scenarios. Fink told the BBC there are only two possible outcomes for the global economy right now. His exact words: "There's not going to be an outcome that's somewhere in the middle." Outcome one is that Iran gets reintegrated into the global community, sanctions ease and Iranian oil and Venezuelan oil flood back into markets. Then the oil drops below $40 a barrel, the world gets relief. Outcome two is that Iran remains a threat, the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted and the standoff stretches on for years. Oil stays above $100 and pushes toward $150. The result? A "stark and steep global recession." Why does $150 oil collapse the world economy? Because oil is embedded in everything. Food production, shipping, manufacturing, heating., fertilizer, chemicals and plastics. When oil spikes, prices spike across every single category of human life. Central banks raise rates to fight inflation, businesses freeze investment and consumers stop spending. Also, jobs disappear, GDP craters and the cycle feeds itself. There is no bailout for this and no rate cut fixes an energy shock. Fink also made a point that high oil prices are a "very regressive tax." The wealthy absorb higher energy costs while the poor cannot. This hits grocery bills, rent, and transportation everything the bottom half of the global population depends on to survive. The market is still pricing in hope, a resolution, a deal, a ceasefire. Fink is pricing in reality, two extremes, and the clock is running. Pay attention to this one.
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How long until Iran comes out and denies this request ever took place...
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Health care? "You're on your own."
Housing? "Nothing we can do."
Grocery prices? "You're out of luck."
$200 billion for another war? "No problem!"
Americans—Democrats, Republicans, independents—are SICK AND TIRED of endless wars.
We need to invest here at home.
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So Bitcoin really was the canary in the coal mine. It was the first to retrace all the way back to its April lows.
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Able-body Mainers between the ages of 18-65 will be REQUIRED TO WORK.
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Dunno who needs to hear this, but Nickelback was actually pretty great and way too many of you were psyopped and e-bullied into believing otherwise.
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