Nancy Zdunkewicz

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Nancy Zdunkewicz

Nancy Zdunkewicz

@nzdunk

Founder @ztoaresearch. Pollster, native Texan, recovering philosopher, churro enthusiast.

Austin, TX Katılım Ekim 2010
1.1K Takip Edilen973 Takipçiler
Nancy Zdunkewicz
Nancy Zdunkewicz@nzdunk·
@daveweigel This so NOT a tale of 2 polls! Jasmine released the initial ballot, and it’s so impressive that she can release that alone. Blair is desperately releasing a ballot after serving voters with biased messaging. That’s not an advantage for him, it’s a tell!
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David Weigel
David Weigel@daveweigel·
Another poll for a David Scott challenger showing a very different race - this one, w Scott in danger of not making runoff. Clearest "generational change" primary - Scott's feebleness is well known, some colleagues wanted him to retire in 2024 politico.com/news/2024/02/2…
Everton Blair, Jr.@evertonblairjr

Not all polls are created equal. We gave voters the best case for every candidate. No attacks. They chose us.  Maybe it's because I've never taken corporate PAC money. Won't take AIPAC money. That I'm fighting for working families, not wealthy interests. Let's keep pushing.

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Andrew Solender
Andrew Solender@AndrewSolender·
Jasmine Clark internal poll shows her neck and neck with Rep. David Scott, w/ other primary insurgents trailing: David Scott - 31% Jasmine Clark - 30% Heavenly Kimes - 10% Emanuel Jones - 8% Everton Blair - 6%
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Bobby Pulido for Texas
Bobby Pulido for Texas@PulidoForTexas·
Three quinceañeras this weekend! In a time when politics feels full of division and hate, these celebrations are a reminder of what bringing people together really looks like. That’s the South Texas I believe in. It’s an honor to be welcomed into these beautiful traditions.
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Nancy Zdunkewicz
Nancy Zdunkewicz@nzdunk·
I’m still so sad Lauren Underwood isn’t running for Senate this year, but grateful for her incredible leadership in the House. She definitely knows about flipping tough districts!
Lauren Underwood@LaurenUnderwood

Ohio. Wisconsin. Texas. Maine. These are just some of the states with battleground districts that will decide the House majority in November. As one of the DCCC Red to Blue Co-Chairs, I’m helping competitive, fierce Democrats run & win (!) in every single one.

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Brad Johnson
Brad Johnson@bradj_TX·
I think we're about here on this primary day. #txlege
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Nancy Zdunkewicz
Nancy Zdunkewicz@nzdunk·
@OrganizerMemes Nathan Johnson for TX Attorney General! Running on cleaning up Paxton’s corruption and protecting Texans from corporate greed & billionaires buying elections
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Organizermemes
Organizermemes@OrganizerMemes·
Who are you paying attention to tonight that's not one of the main races
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Nancy Zdunkewicz
Nancy Zdunkewicz@nzdunk·
@shauna1187 @TravTravTrav90 @UTTyler @TxPolProject Just took a look at it, and it’s also a partial web panel sample (bad) and starts with/weights to an RV universe (also bad), and has a relatively small [but skewed] primary n-size, so it also fails to meet my standards. A campaign pollster could never get away with this stuff!!
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Nancy Zdunkewicz
Nancy Zdunkewicz@nzdunk·
Yet another methodologically flawed poll in TX, this time the @UTTyler poll 🤦‍♀️ C’mon y’all, this isn’t that hard! I’ll re-up my critiques of the UT/@TxPolProject which apply to this poll: shorturl.at/EjXFe 1. Web-panels aren’t representative, esp in diverse states
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Nancy Zdunkewicz
Nancy Zdunkewicz@nzdunk·
@StevenDialFox4 @JohnCornyn @KenPaxtonTX @WesleyHuntTX @JasmineForUS @jamestalarico @FOX4 As a pollster, I regret to inform you that this poll is deeply flawed:
Nancy Zdunkewicz@nzdunk

Yet another methodologically flawed poll in TX, this time the @UTTyler poll 🤦‍♀️ C’mon y’all, this isn’t that hard! I’ll re-up my critiques of the UT/@TxPolProject which apply to this poll: shorturl.at/EjXFe 1. Web-panels aren’t representative, esp in diverse states

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Nancy Zdunkewicz
Nancy Zdunkewicz@nzdunk·
@PollTracker2024 @NateSilver538 I’m a Texas pollster and I can assure you, these public polls in TX are the worst of the worst. Doesn’t matter who you support, these polls are a problem
Nancy Zdunkewicz@nzdunk

Yet another methodologically flawed poll in TX, this time the @UTTyler poll 🤦‍♀️ C’mon y’all, this isn’t that hard! I’ll re-up my critiques of the UT/@TxPolProject which apply to this poll: shorturl.at/EjXFe 1. Web-panels aren’t representative, esp in diverse states

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Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024·
@NateSilver538 One thing I’ve noticed is a lot of the pollsters based in Texas are more Crockett friendly The out of the state pollsters OTOH have Talarico up I’m not sure that means anything just an observation
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Dan Pfeiffer
Dan Pfeiffer@danpfeiffer·
Why are there no high-quality polls of the Texas Senate primary? Seems like an easy thing for WSJ, NYT, or WaPo to test. Instead we are filled with partisan polls or surveys with very small sample sizes
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Nancy Zdunkewicz
Nancy Zdunkewicz@nzdunk·
@PanasonicDX4500 @daveweigel The better explanation here is that almost all of these are shitty public polls that make major errors in sampling and weighting and more x.com/nzdunk/status/…
Nancy Zdunkewicz@nzdunk

Yet another methodologically flawed poll in TX, this time the @UTTyler poll 🤦‍♀️ C’mon y’all, this isn’t that hard! I’ll re-up my critiques of the UT/@TxPolProject which apply to this poll: shorturl.at/EjXFe 1. Web-panels aren’t representative, esp in diverse states

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one dozen rats at a keyboard
one dozen rats at a keyboard@PanasonicDX4500·
I think the easiest way to explain all this is that it’s been a while since anyone has had to poll a high profile, competitive, statewide Democratic primary in Texas, and so everyone’s just trying different methodologies and we’ll know which actually worked next week.
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn

Crosstabs breakouts of Latinos in independent polls since December: UT Tyler: 🟢 Crockett +19 Univ. of Houston: 🟢 Crockett +9 Univ. of Texas: 🟢 Crockett +4 TPOR/Slingshot: 🟠 Talarico +10 Texas Southern: 🟠 Talarico +10 Chism: 🟠 Talarico +29 Emerson: 🟠 Talarico +34

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LyftLady11
LyftLady11@LyftLady11·
@nzdunk @Levi_Asher_ As my Beto peeps keep pointing out the VAN race field can be unreliable. Especially for non-white Hispanics.
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Nancy Zdunkewicz
Nancy Zdunkewicz@nzdunk·
TX Pollster Weighs In: Another day, another #txsen poll to critique! The new @ppppolls poll is less flawed vs the @TxPolProject one, but the racial composition is WAY off. It has only 27% Hispanic & a massive 27% Black. But % Hispanic should be ~2x the % Black in a Dem primary!!
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InteractivePolls
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022·
Texas Democratic primary crosstabs 🟠 Jasmine Crockett: 55% 🟣 James Talarico: 37% 🟢 Ahmad Hassan: 4% —— 🟣 White: Talarico +19 🟠 Black: Crockett +69 🟠 Latino: Crockett+19 🟠 Female: Crockett +34 🟠 Registered voters: Crockett +22 🟠 Likely voters: Crocket+18 —— UT/Tyler | LV | 2/13-22
InteractivePolls tweet media
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022

Texas Senate Democratic Primary 🟦 Jasmine Crockett: 55% 🟦 James Talarico: 37% UT/Tyler | LV | 2/13-22 gilmermirror.com/wp-content/upl…

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Political Polls
Political Polls@PpollingNumbers·
New - Senate primary poll - Texas 🔵 Crockett 55% 🔵 Talarico 37% UT Tyler #B - LV - 2/22
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