Oliver Hodge

Ich hab hier bisher um die 40 Europäer getroffen. Alle klug, alle motiviert was aufzubauen und alle flüchten aus den gleichen Gründen aus Europa - Steuern und Migranten. Während dumme Sozialisten und anderer Abschaum über Rechtsruck als Auswanderungsgrund schwadroniert, fliehen die Leute vor eurer geisteskrank behinderten Politik. Der Braindrain ist real und die Auswirkungen wird Europa in 10-20 Jahren spüren. Die wirtschaftliche Substanz, die man braucht, um das eigene System am laufen zu halten, wird aktiv vertrieben. Und sie werden daran nichts ändern, diese dreckigen Sklavenhalter werden eher weiterhin die Leute ausbeuten, die keine Wahl haben, als irgendwas an ihrem offensichtlich dysfunktionalen Management zu ändern. In der freien Wirtschaft wäre jeder Konzern, der so geführt wird, wie viele europäische Nationen, pleite. Die können aber auch nicht unter Gewaltandrohung Geld erpressen, wie es der Staat macht. Und teilweise säßen CEOs in Haft. Aber in „unserer Demokratie“ gibt es keine Konsequenzen für Inkompetenz und vorsätzliche Bösartigkeit. Aber Hausdurchsuchungen für Leute, die Fakten benennen. Wenn ihr jung seid und könnt: Wandert aus. Ihr habt nur ein Leben. Und ihr werdet erstaunt sein, wie viel besser es anderswo ist und wie positiv sich das auf eure Mentalität auswirkt.

Qatalum of Qatar, which provides 9% of global aluminum supply, and ~25% of capacity ex-China, will shut down their smelter due to war risks. A restart would take at least 6 months.

What key commodity is most exposed to a Strait of Hormuz shut-down? Not crude oil. ~40% of global sulfur export trade ~30% of global urea export trade Fertilizers.

The fertilizer and therefore agriculture markets are heavily affected by the Strait of Hormuz. Share of global flows of fertilizer components: ~44% of sulfur ~31% of urea ~18% of ammonia ~15% of phosphates Major commodity and agricultural shocks ahead.

SOME FERTILISER PRICES JUMP 12.8% DUE TO US IRAN WAR, HORMUZ CLOSURE - CRU GROUP

Nothing humbles you like telling your OpenClaw “confirm before acting” and watching it speedrun deleting your inbox. I couldn’t stop it from my phone. I had to RUN to my Mac mini like I was defusing a bomb.

Good & interesting piece, but a necessary caveat is that it’s essentially a hypothetical conditioned on severe institutional failure, rather than some sort of macro inevitability. As the piece itself notes, one of its two failure modes -- liquidity stress and capital impairment -- includes a liquidity component the Fed can address quickly with liquidity facilities and asset purchases (repo lines, QE...), as seen in recent episodes of banking stress. Losses from impaired assets won’t disappear, but can in principle be moved where the broadest shoulders are, of which there will be plenty in this hypothetical economy (much more than before! Couldn't they just tax Anthropic into paying all your pensions?). This would be done through regulation or a fiscal mechanism. The second failure mode -- an aggregate-demand shortfall from mass unemployment -- can be addressed through fiscal policy (transfers, wage subsidies, etc.). The piece argues this may be constrained by falling tax revenues, but in a deflationary/low-inflation environment the Treasury can run large deficits, and the Fed can buy ~as much of that debt as it needs to, leaving aside that we’d expect the tax structure to change. The political process is unlikely to be as meaningful a bottleneck as the piece claims, as the hypothetical fiscal hawks pointing to unsustainable deficits would not have much of a point, given the economy in this hypothetical will have a much higher potential output (also, that obviously wouldn't poll well). The first principles intuition obviously tells you something is awry when we’re told that people will want (at least) as many real things as before, and the economy will have the means to produce more real things than before, but the people won’t be getting the amount of real things they want or need. This is because that typically requires major policy/institutional frictions (or delay) in translating capacity into purchasing power. If you suddenly have 2 loaves of bread instead of 1 in your house, and you weren’t starving with 1, you probably shouldn’t starve when there’s 2. But if -- by some hypothetical -- through the complexity of the novel 2-breadloaf production process you suddenly get tangled and can no longer access the cupboard, then it’s quite possible you will starve.

Clavicular did more for men in the gender war than any man in recent history. Converted Tate-era incel resentment into a looksmaxxing power play, and every day he proves himself right by looking good, triggering women, and remaining desired by them in the process.