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$AAOI Keep checking boxes! On March 3rd, I posted a specific watchlist of milestones I needed to see $AAOI hit to continue to build conviction. Click this link below to read it. My thesis was simple: if they execute on these targets, conviction goes up; if they falter consistently, the thesis breaks. It has been exactly 20 days since that post. In that short window, we have had the Raymond James conference, the OFC 2026 technology update, and two major order announcements. Management is aggressively checking the boxes. Here is exactly where our scorecard stands right now: Immediate Catalysts (Next 1 to 3 Months) - Firmware issues (CHECK): At the Raymond James conference, CFO Stefan Murry confirmed this “last hurdle” is officially in the rearview mirror. He explicitly stated, “We’ve shipped the new firmware, and we don’t expect it to be... an issue going forward”. The massive 800G ramp for Q2 seems to be unblocked. - The massive order influx (CHECK): This catalyst hit perfectly. On March 9th, AOI announced a massive $200 million volume order for 1.6T transceivers from a major long-term hyperscaler. Today (March 23), they announced an initial $53 million volume order for 800G transceivers from that exact same customer to support GPU clusters. - Sustainable profitability (ON TRACK): Management reaffirmed their expectation to flip to sustainable non-GAAP profitability beginning in Q2 2026. - 800G taking the lead (ON TRACK): Murry reiterated that while 400G is driving current strength, 800G will dominate datacenter revenue starting in Q2 2026. Full Year 2026 Execution Milestones: - The $1B target (ON TRACK): Management formally stands by their full-year 2026 guidance of over $1 billion in revenue and over $120 million in non-GAAP operating profit. - Capacity ramp to 500,000 units (UPGRADED!): This was the biggest surprise of the month. At OFC, AOI officially upgraded their year-end capacity target. Because of “very, very large demand,” they now expect to reach a combined capacity of 650,000 units per month by the end of 2026 (broken down as 420,000 800G units and 230,000 1.6T units). - 1.6T Revenue contribution (ORDER IN): The $200 million 1.6T order announcement confirmed exactly when this revenue hits. Shipments will begin in early Q3 2026 and are expected to be completed in Q4 of this year as long as qualification stays on track. - Customer diversification (PIPELINE EXPANSION): AOI is aggressively de-risking its historical customer concentration. Management explicitly stated they expect to exit 2026 with three hyperscale datacenter customers each representing >10% of total revenue. The datacenter pipeline breakdown is clear: Hyperscaler #1: Officially placed their first 800G volume order, with final firmware optimizations expected to wrap up in March ahead of the massive Q2 volume ramp. Hyperscaler #2: A U.S.-based large hyperscaler that recently returned to >10% revenue status for the first time in a long time. They are eager to begin 1.6T qualifications and have indicated a desire to place 800G orders “soon”. Hyperscaler #3: Management confirmed their full-year modeling includes a third hyperscaler that will be smaller in scale than the top two, but will still be a significant (>10%) revenue contributor by the end of the year. - CapEx announcements (PENDING): While we know AOI recently close a $250 million via an upsized ATM, and also launched an additional one last week, to fund their equipment and expansion, management stated on the Q4 call that they are still evaluating their official 2026 CapEx projections and will share the final number at a later date. We do know this capital will fund the $150 million, 210,000 sq. ft. Sugar Land, Texas facility announced in late 2025, which began construction in February and is slated for completion by summer 2026. Long-Term 2027 Targets: - The $378m MRR & Margin Expansion (ON TRACK): The new OFC roadmap fully supports the mid-2027 target of ~$378 million in monthly transceiver revenue, with capacity allowing for way more. Management continues to project overall gross margins hitting 35%-38% by mid-2027, ultimately reaching 40% by late Q3 or Q4 2027. - Tripling laser capacity: AOI reaffirmed plans to triple their in-house Indium Phosphide (InP) laser capacity in Texas by mid-2027. The real CPO signal dropped at OFC was that AOI expects to scale production of external laser engines (ELSFPs) to 400,000 units per month by Q4 2027. Crucially, they do not anticipate selling these high-power lasers externally; they are hoarding the industry’s bottleneck component strictly for their own in-house module production. - The U.S. manufacturing shift (ON TRACK): Management reaffirmed that by the end of next year, they expect over 55% to 65% of 800G and 1.6T manufacturing to be physically located in the U.S. to support hyperscaler supply chain security. This is all very encouraging, but we still need to see qualification timelines hit and orders get fulfilled on time. I expect these qualifications being met and orders being delivered to be a major catalyst to the share price. In addition to other large orders.

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