@riptidereturns Not this one ship, but whether or not they allow a significant amount of more oil to pass through.
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Omninomics
71 posts
Omninomics
@omninomics
mercatus omnia est – omnia sunt mercatus Aliases: @UkrAnalysis @MidEAnalysis
mercatus Katılım Aralık 2020
100 Takip Edilen26 Takipçiler
@riptidereturns @Rory_Johnston It affects the war on a strategic level.
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Potentially massive development.
“Brotherly Iraq is exempt from any restrictions we have imposed on the Strait of Hormuz,” Iran’s military spokesman said.
Iraq is the Gulf country that has shut in the most crude production capacity at >3 MMbpd—swinging that back would be huge.
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@Rory_Johnston If they open up too much, their main point of leverage in the war is gone or severely weakened. This is a strategic decision.
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@mercoglianos Handy map:
x.com/Rory_Johnston/…
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston
I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in different major consuming regions: - East Africa last week - East Asia this week - Europe next week - North America two more weeks
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This ⬇️⬇️⬇️ right here!
There is a bubble in the shipping supply chain from Hormuz and it is just now hitting countries.
Karel Mercx@KarelMercx
The last VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) that left just before the Iran war is expected to arrive on April 11. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened today, the next tanker would not arrive before May 11, 2026. Oil prices will not stabilize anytime soon.
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AND THE JAWBONE
Crude "only" fell ~$4.50/bbl on the latest Trump post, which is less than 1/3 of the pullback he got on Monday, and the rout was reversed much more quickly.
Oil market getting more numb to the nonsense.
Commentary: Trump Truth Social Posts On X@TrumpTruthOnX
As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP (TS: 26 Mar 16:11 ET)
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@CRUDEOIL231 One way to interpret this is that the ground forces are there to give Trump options, and that he realizes he is loosing the war. That doesn't mean oil will start flowing soon, or that there won't be a ground operation; but I think he is getting serious second thoughts.
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It seems their deception operation suffered from a serious lack of coordination, didn't it?
According to their claims, Iran is completely defeated and wants to negotiate, yet it's the US that's proposing a one-month ceasefire? I must be the only one who feels like something doesn't add up.
Btw this feels like total deja vu. I saw this same comedy countless times just a week before the war broke out—the blatant discrepancy between words and actions.
The Marines and paratroopers have already set off for the Middle East—all in the name of 'peace,' of course.
#oott #iran
FinancialJuice@financialjuice
⚠ BREAKING: Israeli Channel 12: A month-long ceasefire will be announced according to a mechanism being worked on by Wittkov and Kushner.
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The US has reportedly told Israel that its plans to liberate the Strait of Hormuz may take longer than expected.
"The American assessment is that this is an operation that will last for many weeks...the goal is a broad strategic change" -N12 news
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@Foxy_Trader967 Depends on how you look at it. It's up more 3% since yesterday's low.
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@Rory_Johnston weekend oil sorta not caring so far it seems but this is not good
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Speaker of Iran’s Parliament:
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
بلافاصله پس از هدف قرار گرفتن نیروگاههای برق و زیرساخت در کشورمان، زیرساختهای حیاتی و زیرساختهای انرژی و نفت در سراسر منطقه اهداف مشروع تلقی شده و به نحو بازگشتناپذیر منهدم خواهند شد و قیمت نفت برای مدتها بالاتر خواهد رفت. وألقِ ما في يمينك تَلْقَفْ ما صَنَعوا.
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@Rory_Johnston Maybe, but does not seem to be where we are headed right now.
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I still think Trump will TACO—because he *has* to TACO. Oil loss it too big, too politically untenable.
While the damage is already extensive and recovery will already be a months-long ordeal, it can get so, so much worse and this is fundamentally a crisis of lost time.
People will push back and say it isn't up to Trump anymore.
But while there are two other major parties in this war, Trump remains the 1) most important, and 2) most movable by external pressures (like, say, oil prices), so it's gotta be him.
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@JavierBlas Presumably token transits that allow politicians of relevant countries to show to their electorate that they are actually managing to alleviate the situation in some way. This buys Iran some goodwill from these countries, which could come in handy after the war.
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One-off or sign of easing?
Two tankers transporting LPG (think the butane canisters) have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last few hours on the way to India. The crossing happened after gov-to-gov talks between Tehran and New Delhi.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@CRUDEOIL231 Planning for a few weeks more of this war is certainly consistent with public messaging, and I am starting to think that this is their actual plan (if they have a plan at all). I am much less confident that they will actually stick to such a plan, however.
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Final thought for today:
Hearing all these rumors and noise about SPR releases, export bans, gas tax cuts, and futures market intervention makes me wonder...
If they're considering all these measures, it basically means they intend to sustain the war without TACO.
Does this mean a fundamental solution to the problem is becoming even more remote? Ultimately, the problem was the Strait of Hormuz all along....
All these measures feel so far removed from a swift end to the war.
#oott #iran
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@Rory_Johnston I imagine they are going to want to include significant air support in such a package, removing airframes from other parts of the theatre.
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Seems like they’re considering pretty well everything, which they should be.
What are they actually going to do?
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
🚨 U.S. WEIGHS NAVAL ESCORTS FOR OIL TANKERS The Trump administration is considering using U.S. military forces to escort oil and gas tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as Iranian threats disrupt shipping and drive energy prices higher. Officials are also weighing government-backed insurance to keep vessels moving. Oil prices have jumped nearly $10 per barrel, while attacks on ships and energy infrastructure raise fears of further supply shocks. Any mission would likely focus on protecting shipping from missiles and drones as the conflict expands.
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@khubani786 @BenniKim Ships took the long route instead of going through Suez. There is no alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for ships.
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@BenniKim Some fella was ranting earlier how iran doesnt have resources to enact a sustained blocked of the strait. He didnt learn shit from houthi episode
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Guess that clarifies. Amazingly underwhelming reaction in the crude market.
People are still believing in a quick victory and a massive SPR release.
Faytuks News@Faytuks
BREAKING: Islamic Revolutionary Guards commander says that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and that Iran will set fire to any ship trying to pass, according to Iranian media - Reuters
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@ncitayim That's part I have in mind. It could well have been intercepted so close to its target that the debris still hit the target.
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@omninomics The "targeting the facility" is the only iffy part, if we assume this was debris.
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The 550k b/d Ras Tanura refinery fire caused by *debris from 2 intercepted drones*, Saudi energy ministry says.
Key distinction, and much different to if it was struck directly as that would open up a whole new dimension to the conflict.
Ras Tanura is Saudi's biggest refinery.
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@RusOilGasExpert The explosion does look like it has two "legs", which could be consistent with a burst pipe.
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➡️ Novorossiysk exports about 1mmbpd of crude and refined products out of ~7mmbpd of total typical exports.
➡️ This is hardly the first time this port has been struck. The flames may look dramatic, but if it is only due to a burst pipe, repairs may be quick and the effect modest.
#oott @staunovo @chigrl
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston
Seeing wider confirmation of this now. Big deal, especially right now with Iran. Ukraine either just accidentally really overplayed its hand, or is very intentionally playing serious hardball at a perilous moment for the global oil market.
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@Rory_Johnston Better view in the third video here, by the way. This is more than the detonation of a small drone warhead.
x.com/NOELreports/st…
NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦@NOELreports
A mass Ukrainian drone attack is underway on Novorossiysk, with hits recorded in the port area. Explosions and fires are observed. #Ukraine
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Seeing wider confirmation of this now.
Big deal, especially right now with Iran.
Ukraine either just accidentally really overplayed its hand, or is very intentionally playing serious hardball at a perilous moment for the global oil market.
(((Tendar)))@Tendar
Ukrainian projectiles successfully struck port infrastructure in Novorossiysk, Russia. Likely the terminal for oil loading has been struck.
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