EndlessFlow

277 posts

EndlessFlow

EndlessFlow

@opportunityflow

"The plans of the diligent lead to profit as surely as haste leads to poverty." Proverbs 21:5 (NIV)

Katılım Ekim 2021
38 Takip Edilen2 Takipçiler
Josh Young
Josh Young@JoshYoung·
If there's no deal, and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, why is oil -4.5%?
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Ariel Hernandez
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel·
This makes no difference even if $NVDA sold off on earnings. 17% of rev came from china in 24’ 13% in 2025 9% in 2026 China hasn’t been a major contributor to Nvidia’s earnings for quite sometime.
Ariel Hernandez tweet media
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Ariel Hernandez
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel·
$AAPL $MSFT a big reason the $SPY isn't down 2% today
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EndlessFlow
EndlessFlow@opportunityflow·
@TaPlot @TaPlot with interest rates staging upwards, this trade will be challenging
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Tobias Carlisle
Tobias Carlisle@Greenbackd·
The world is exiting the post-2008 zero-rate era permanently. Long-term inflation and interest-rate expectations are repricing sharply higher across all major developed economies simultaneously. And in several countries, especially Japan, the UK, Germany, and France, the move is now approaching or exceeding the magnitude of the 2013 taper tantrum. Many of the winning strategies of the last 15 years may underperform the next regime. And many deeply out-of-favor areas could become structural winners rather than temporary trades.
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks

It's been my view for some time that we're in a global debt crisis, with markets losing confidence that gov'ts will ever fix fiscal policy to bring down debt. Today's a good reminder this is going on. 10y10y forward yield (red) at new highs in many places. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-lurking-…

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Tobias Carlisle
Tobias Carlisle@Greenbackd·
The market is expensive at the top but more reasonably valued beneath the surface. 1. The Magnificent 7 Premium is Extreme The gap between the Mag-7 (26.7x) and the broader market (~21x) and mid/small caps (~16x) is historically large. Investors are paying a massive premium for mega-cap tech's growth expectations. 2. Large Caps Are Still Elevated The S&P 500 at ~21x is well above its long-run historical average of ~16x, suggesting the broader market remains expensive by traditional standards. 3. Mid & Small Caps Look Relatively Cheap At 15.8–16.4x, small and mid caps are near their long-term averages, making them relatively more attractive on a valuation basis compared to large caps. 4. Valuations Compress During Downturns Every shaded correction/bear market is accompanied by P/E compression, most dramatically in 2020 (COVID crash, -33.9% in just 32 days) and 2022 (bear market, -25.4% over 282 days).
Tobias Carlisle tweet media
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BuddyBear
BuddyBear@BuddyBear88·
They are STILLL slapping $SOXS with semis at all time highs again. This is the third largest volume ever on this ticker.
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EndlessFlow
EndlessFlow@opportunityflow·
@qualtrim @qualtrim except that it is not happening to these stocks anymore...Market is pricing lower earnings and/or lower multiple going forward - this is where many lose money chasing 'value'.
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Qualtrim
Qualtrim@qualtrim·
Peter Lynch said: "There is 100% correlation between a company's earnings and what happens to the stock.” If stock price follows EPS, here are 6 stocks that look like opportunity. 1. $MSFT - Microsoft
Qualtrim tweet media
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PBA
PBA@801010athlete·
$NBIS pushing $200 on earnings report Phew, hate earnings lol. We are now sitting w a 87+% gain off 4/2 buy & 4/3 add, $107.55 cost, 6 weeks ago. This is my position trade, don’t really care about anything else long term. Haven’t trimmed and don’t plan too, want this to grow in size over time. I believe this is this cycle’s SMCI/APP.
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The Great Martis
The Great Martis@great_martis·
Nasdaq Two possible scenarios I've identified: 1. A larger broadening formation is unfolding, and we're about to start the fifth and final wave within this pattern. 2. A slanting head and shoulders formation developing. No third scenario exists. Whichever formation is in play will take months to complete. I'll pin this post for future updates. God bless and godspeed.
The Great Martis tweet media
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EndlessFlow
EndlessFlow@opportunityflow·
@TaPlot Maybe not too late to buy fresh new highs
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TA 📈
TA 📈@TaPlot·
$rklb chopped around for 5 days after entry and refused to give traders any cushion before earnings. Close around breakeven before earnings. Thinking Risk First forces you to exit ahead of the print. Which I did. Sometimes, they are so close yet so far.
TA 📈@TaPlot

$RKLB giving up a good part of yesterday's move. Not all trades going to be fun to hold. This still looks promising. Holding for now. Chat via @marketsurge desktop Little deeper cup and handle on this one so a bit of volatility is not out of the norm.

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Ariel Hernandez
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel·
Why do I think the AI Big 10* will be even larger than 40% soon? If we start to see $TSLA $MSFT $META participate in this rally it won't be long before it's 50% concentration in those names.
Ariel Hernandez tweet media
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EndlessFlow
EndlessFlow@opportunityflow·
@RealSimpleAriel What would you advise them to do at this point? This is the question. There is always money on a side or in other vehicles that are not moving.
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Ariel Hernandez
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel·
I still wont participate in this rally because there is no volume. How do we think those people are doing? 🤣
Ariel Hernandez tweet media
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Ariel Hernandez
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel·
I could look in hindsight about closing $MP without much cushion into earnings and be disappointed it's up 7% without me. Then I look at $AAOI and having made the same decision to exit at $160 and realize I dodged a bullet.
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Ariel Hernandez
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel·
And while we look at the $QQQ in disbelief lets remember that positioning is non existent to the long side. In other words, so many people are sitting on the sidelines missing history. Do we get a pullback at some point? yes. Are there tons of players on the sidelines waiting to buy any meaningful pullback? also yes.
Ariel Hernandez tweet media
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Ariel Hernandez
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel·
$SMH just hit 10x ATR from the 50sma today! The last time SMH was this extended from the 50sma was... Never That's right. Since inception it has NEVER been this stretched from the 50sma. We are now part of history! Make sure you share and tag those who bitched and moaned about the low volume on the way up
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Ariel Hernandez
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel·
There is buying stock out of a tight base or high tight flag, and then there is buying out of whatever the F this is lol. $SNDK $MU $AMD $MRVL $STX $GOOGL $MXL $INTC. If your just getting bullish now your doing it ALL wrong. There is buying a stock on the 2nd floor and the 42nd floor. one can break your ankle. the other can break your neck.
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