Optimus P
1.2K posts

Optimus P
@optimalisms
“There is no normal life, Wyatt. There’s just life.” -Doc Holiday





All out. -13% on Silver, that's it, took it off. Short from mid 93s, out 102s equivalent. Still think overall the trade is valid and data backed, simply did not work and big size did the rest. Prior $GLD and $SLV gains along the way account for 55-60% of this loss, so effectively lost 6.5% across the trades. (or gave back around $SNDK trade equivalent alternatively depending if you want to go by year or by asset class) Historical times, as extended as in 1980, 50y ago, backed by ema extension data, time spent over ema, volume and more. Still no dice. If I had to take it again I'd be a bit smaller to begin and scale better but overall would not do much different. Basically decided to take the hit to make it a big slap rather than something that could change my path and long-term plan. The focus remains latin america and Ethereum and I cant let stubbornness or a martingale stop me from letting these evolve. This is likely lower in a short period but I will say I could also see something different happen. inventories are running low quickly, at 4-5%+ pace each day. China price premium is leading to a massive outflow and I am hearing of big banks like UBS stuck short with major size. As these shorts are covered, retail chases and major nations stockpile, there is a chance we could completely detach and see a quick move into 130+. That is the flip side of this bet and what I want to avoid. We are going into the weekend, over 100$, with a massive volume big green bar, the risk you take on over the weekend is massive if you aren't structured with upside protection. The worst case I see is a sort of 108-112 gap up and spray into 120s+. Likely? Not the likeliest path, but possible and even a 10-20% chance is not worth giving up on the major longer term compounding journey. Again make no mistake, longing here is playing with fire. Data indicating prior instances lead to 30%+ losses over the next mid term period with strong 15%+ losses within weeks. NEXT!




























