Sam Rapson

@WillRagatz Spotrac guess is 22.6M APY.... Would hate the frame of "we won't pay our EDGE1 so we can pay a WR3"

Would truly be a perfect WR3. Only question I’d have is the money. If they can make it work and get this done, it would legitimately make me feel better about the Greenard trade.

Oooooooh That would explain not drafting a receiver!

@run_the_sims @tejfbanalytics This is a great clarification from the earlier graphs, thanks. Interesting and curious that "massive steal" and "mild reach" seem to follow similar patterns

Was talking to @tejfbanalytics about massive steals and massive reaches and the idea that when players fall multiple rounds there is probably signal there that the consensus doesnt have access to (see: medicals) When you strip those out, the hit rate on steals separates even more through pick 100 or so.

@run_the_sims To illustrate, in the 2026 top ten the only picks is considered "chalk" by this are: Mendoza, Bailey, Love Seems like that holds as you go down the chain. Feels a bit over inclusive, IMO

@run_the_sims I'm not sure I have a perfect answer, but at first blush that feels a little too "tight" to me. Like to me, at pick 20, it feels more correct at something like +- 5. The constraints of teams not being able to perfectly trade to the "right" spot are real.

On consensus and the power of the wisdom of the crowd: Consenus steals and players that are within "agree" band tend to hit at a higher rate than "reaches" through the first two rounds or so.

@LateRoundQB Highly recommend TAFS's recent episode on this, very nuanced: youtube.com/watch?v=M0hgFF…

I feel like the running back value discussion always gets pushed to simply comparing contract numbers, but really it's that AND the opportunity cost involved — you're also missing out on a favorable contract at a higher-in-demand position. It's not just like, free agency.

@SamHoppen nevermind, it's "skipped some testing"

@SamHoppen what does the blue highlighting on a section imply?

Want to see how the players your team drafted compare to prospects from past seasons? I went through each position and calculated sim scores based on player athleticism, production, and usage! You can read all of them on my Substack with the methodology in the first post! 🔗⤵️

@mattyglesias School finances struggle with predictability in high mobility populations. High initial student population leads to hiring, but budgeting late year happens after kids leave. Schools have to cut newly hired teachers, only to have to hire again when population grows over summer

@mattyglesias Lots of secondary problems for new teachers too. Union rules mean layoffs usually target junior staff first. Often early jobs are some of the toughest situations, high poverty schools with lots of student/teacher turnover

Raising *starting* salaries for teachers seems like a more cost-effective way to boost recruitment/retention than across the board pay hikes. (pension boost is the reverse, worst possible investment) caldercenter.org/sites/default/…

@tejfbanalytics To add to this. Vikings have historically had success with day 3 safeties (Bynum, Metellus, Kearse, etc), this draft is deep at S and coming off a major bust with the Cine pick might make them gun shy. Not that I hate safety as the pick, but it's not a given

@tejfbanalytics Vikings fan here. Reasonable take. Of note that Addison is getting to the end of his deal also. RT in a similar boat

if you’re allowed to mock anything except a safety to the vikings, how about a wide receiver at #18: - lost jalen nailor in free agency - tj hockenson was 29th/34 in YPRR last season - the pick is in the cooper jr, KCC, boston range - you trust flores to scheme up a good defense

@sundown623 @tejfbanalytics I don't think so. He might be mildly overpaid, but he's an important contributor in the blocking world and still our default get-out-jail-on-3rd-and-long with y-choice. Bad stats is more about the QB play last year

@owleabf @tejfbanalytics I want to ask someone who actually watches vikings games: Is Hock cooked?

@SamHoppen I get positional value, but find these rankings touhg. How do you square this with the reality of the NFL draft? Love/Downs/Styles seem likely to go in the top 10, is your frame that all these professional NFL FOs are failing to moneyball this properly?

Consensus prospect big boards do a great job of identifying the rank order of which players project best to the NFL. However, one key piece that has been missing is the positional value of those players. So, I created a position-adjusted prospect big board. 🔗 to read ⤵️

@allinkid Pfft. It was -7 in mpls a week ago and was 73 yesterday

"Spring" in VA Beach is literal 84 67 48 61 75 78 46 Enjoy the ride!

@SharpFootball To me the concern is target share and depth of target. The Broncos had 120 more attempts than the Dolphins, a good sign. But they spread it around, with 6 guys getting 50 targets (vs 3 for Miami). Add to that that the Broncos only had 600 more yds and things are in question

Jaylen Waddle shifting to a pass-first offense could be significant look at the massive difference in pass rate last year 1st half: #2 - DEN (66%) #29 - MIA (54%) 1st half early downs: #5 - DEN (61%) #30 - MIA (48%) Waddle's impact in Denver: sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/jaylen…

@mattyglesias @CoryBooker That's 10.8% of income for the 40k and 3.4% of the 400k....

@ASchatzNFL Have you ever considered accounting for positional/contract value in some fashion? A team would rather have their WR2 miss 17 games than their QB miss 4, as one point of reference.

Here's the article: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/adjusted-g…

Injuries matter. 7 of the 10 teams with the fewest Adjusted Games Lost to injury made the playoffs. 7 of the 10 teams with the most Adjusted Games Lost to injury missed the playoffs.

@MStopsky DE higher positional value, but Sweat with one more year on the rookie contract. Kinda makes sense all around

Both Jermaine Johnson & T'Vondre Sweat had 6 (Average Starter Level) SumerScores in 2025. So from a SumerScore standpoint, this is pretty even.

@mattyglesias Realpolitik concern: a lot of women will have drivers licenses that don't match their birth certificate Question is: "What percent of liberal women who have changed their last name also don't have a passport"