Nine

I never post my trades because I don't believe it benefits me in any way. But I will do it just this once. 99% of you FinTwit regards are cowards. Too emotional. When your positions are up, you are celebrating. Gain porn falling out of everyone's assholes. When your positions are down, you're pointing fingers at other people. Mad that other people may be succesful and bitter you aren't. Refusing to point the finger at yourself and take accountability for your mistakes. x.com/i/status/20195… $IREN is 80% of my port. The past few weeks were brutal, with my account drawing down nearly 50%. But I was able to mitigate it to a small degree. $203K of realized PnL YTD. My only other options position is a short $38 $IREN put expiring 2/13 that I am up $7,500 on. This PnL is not from taking profit on other positions. $150K of this comes fron selling covered calls, short puts, and put credit spreads, all on $IREN. You guys make sarcastic remarks like "apparently everyone knew this would be the bottom." You know in your heart you are lying to yourself, twisting other's words, making them sound like furus to make yourself feel good. Mental masturbation that is destroying your progress as a trader and investor. Talk is cheap. But there is a lesson in every post. Every reply. Most of you will never realize this. You can learn from the most regarded people. If a regard is right and you were wrong, it doesn't matter whether he's regarded or not. It doesn't matter whether you're smart or experienced or rich. You were wrong. Stop pointing fingers at other people. Stop making statements like "I know what I own." You made a series of mistakes. You fucked up letting your portfolio draw down 20, 30, 40, 50%. Spend your mental energy looking for solutions and understanding your mistakes rather than engaging in mental masturbation.

I’m officially on Robinhood Social Come follow along 🫡 $HOOD

@B__Digs @BitcoinAIGuy I wish I was as smart, handsome, and rich as he.

@owoNine @BitcoinAIGuy burner

I've been considering shifting a small portion of my $IREN position to $NBIS, but everytime I read an AI related post, there's so many $NBIS cocksucking tourists. Makes me sick. I'll wait to see if there's another drawdown and you cucks sell your shares for pennies on the dollar.

@aleabitoreddit If media was actually about critical thinking vs. what gets the most clicks, the world would be very different 😆

It’s really just optics at this point with authority bias, sad to see media especially can’t just look at ideas themselves. The dumbest suggestions come from BoA and other “analysts” like Burry who are very red YTDS But it immediately gets credibility from name association. Arguments from authority should carry little weight compared to the thesis itself. This is the entire reason why I never cite my background even I give a thesis.

Why is it… When I call out a stock like $RPI, news outlets like Bloomberg and FT call it a “Meme Stock”? Like GameStop? Then when other analysts like Hedgeye say the same thing a month later… Suddenly it’s an AI trade like Bytedance or Tencent. Do I need to name change to Serenity Risk Management?

@EnergyCredit1 I'm completely left curve here. Can you ELI5?

Convert arb fund guy here This isn’t how this works and it gets repeated over and over Comparing convert coupon to straight bond coupon might be one of the dumbest things I see from FinTwit. It’s apples and oranges The arbs are buying equity vol. company selling equity vol. premium and coupon and vol are modeled to basically earn the same credit spread. So f’ing dumb. They are different products. For long only funds its equity with downside protection.

@DrTomsLens Valid but if I'm going to swing super heavy and allocated 20-80% of my portfolio to something, I need transparency. Just different levels of what we're comfortable with.

A lot has been said lately about $NBIS' less-than-100% transparency around its deals. And if you ask me, I’m perfectly fine with that. The people most obsessed with every missing detail seem to be $IREN bulls looking for validation that they made the right call betting on bare metal, short sellers looking to pressure the stock, just not sure when or by how much, or swingers trying to time their exit and maximize profits. And besides, why should $NBIS spell out every detail of every deal and risk weakening its hand in future negotiations? At some point, it comes down to whether you trust management or you don’t.

@AndrewBaderr @Agrippa_Inv @daniel_koss No, a starter position is for when you buy first, research later. Agrippa already did his research and has made his decision.

@Agrippa_Inv @daniel_koss Least deserves a starter position

Why I’m Not Invested in $NBIS First of all, let me make one thing clear: contrary to what you might think, I’m not an $NBIS bear. But then again, I’m not invested either… and for good reason. Nebius positions itself as a holistic cloud platform with superior software technology that caters to AI-native start-ups and enterprise clients. That in and of itself isn’t a problem, but it means they're directly competing against the largest hyperscalers in the world, who are also targeting that exact cohort with their own set of software solutions (Google Cloud, Microsoft, etc.). Nonetheless, if $NBIS can successfully differentiate itself with its core offerings, it could gain some pricing power, which is the company’s best shot at one day becoming profitable. The problem is, $NBIS is VERY far away from that… Looking at the last quarterly filing, the company’s gross expenses + depreciation equaled ~110% of its revenues. In other words, these two cost categories exceeded the value of the underlying revenues ($249.2m vs. revenue of $227.7m). To be fair, last quarter Nebius still used a 4 year depreciation schedule on GPUs, which is rather short and overstates depreciation. Adjusting for a 5 year depreciation schedule (industry standard) leads us to $144.6m of depreciation. Then, adding gross expenses of $68.5m on top gets you to $213.1m, which equals 93.5% of revenues. And keep in mind, this figure does NOT include the hundreds of millions in costs spent on SG&A, R&D, and financing (interest). So what’s my point with this? The problem is, these are STRUCTURAL costs, the kind that scale with revenue, meaning you can’t easily grow out of them through sheer scale. My point is that $NBIS' pricing power is nowhere to be seen, at least not relative to its costs. Now, most $NBIS investors would probably argue that we are still "early" and that pricing power will show up eventually. My problem with that argument is that the company seems to be allocating a very large chunk of its pipeline towards servicing hyperscalers through bare metal offerings, the kind of “bulk” service that does NOT command significant pricing power. That means, fundamentally speaking, $NBIS is likely very far away from actually becoming profitable. And while right now everyone is focused on headline figures like ARR, the market’s patience will run out eventually... it ALWAYS does for every company. One day, the market will demand to see real profits flow down to the bottom line, and I’m not sure if $NBIS is structurally positioned to deliver on that any time soon. To make matters worse, investors can’t even model out the economics of these large hyperscaler deals, because management provides absolutely 0 information on anything except headline figures. We don’t even know the CapEx associated with these deals, or at the very least, the number of GPUs they have to purchase to fulfill their end of the bargain. Contrast that with a company like $IREN, which gives you all the necessary information to build an entire P&L and cash flow model over the full course of the contract length, which is exactly what I’ve done extensively for our subscribers on Substack. I have a VERY good idea of how much actual post-tax net income $IREN is making in every year of their hyperscaler contract. There are other reasons that further point in the same direction, but I won’t get into them right now. If they fix their cost structure one day, I’m happy to reconsider my stance. But as of today, their “black box” approach to publishing details on their largest deals makes them uninvestable for me.

@Nifro18 @Agrippa_Inv @daniel_koss 4/ Case in point your first $NBIS post was in November 2025 you donut. When the entire sector was ATHs. People like Agrippa have been bull posting $IREN since it was a four dollar stock.

@Nifro18 @Agrippa_Inv 3/ A lot of $NBIS investors like @daniel_koss are actually smart and can argue from different angles and consider counterpoints. But there's so many of you dicksuckers with $120 cost averages and 67 IQ that can't handle any level of critical thinking, it makes me sick.

@jr2251 @Agrippa_Inv @BitcoinAIGuy Lmao your first post on $NBIS was 2 weeks ago. Spoken like a true tourist. The next drawdown will shake you out.

@Agrippa_Inv @BitcoinAIGuy That is a losing team’s answer.

Reading comments today and it still seems many people don’t understand $NUAI ‘s midstream energy sector financial model, or how this is different than every other neocloud, or how it prevents dilution. Retail sees a 8+ GW pipeline, 1GW TCDC campus and incorrectly assumes there will be massive dilution, which is understandable considering the pattern across the sector to date. $NUAI is not running the same model as $NBIS, $IREN etc., who fund their builds through: convertible notes, ATM offerings and secondary equity raises. Yes, in those businesses every MW of new capacity means more shares or more corporate debt. Shareholders eat the dilution with the bet it will be accretive through time. That’s just how it works when you fund everything on the parent balance sheet. $NUAI is doing something different. They’re using the same GP/LP structure that built the entire midstream energy pipeline sector. Each project sits in its own SPV. $NUAI sits on top as the GP — the developer, owner, and manager. $NUAI develops the site and signs a hyperscaler to a long-term NNN lease. That contracted cash flow from a Microsoft/Meta/Oracle-tier credit is about the most bankable revenue stream in infrastructure right now. That lease is what attracts project-level financing — infra funds, project finance lenders, pensions line up to fund the build against that contract. The capital never touches NUAI’s balance sheet. No shares issued. It’s like a real estate developer. They don’t fund the building. They find the site, lock in the tenant, bring in capital partners, and earn dev fees, management fees, performance incentive (known as a “promote”) etc. Yes — $NUAI gives away more economics per project this way. The GP doesn’t keep 100%. They keep a minority. But do the math on a microcap trading at $ 300MM. Would you rather own 100% of a project you can barely finance, or earn fees and promotes across a multi-GW portfolio where someone else’s balance sheet funds the build? At this size, the platform value of being the GP across 8+ GW dwarfs trying to self-fund site after site and dilute yourself into the ground doing it. $NUAI already owns 438 acres at TCDC. That land goes into the SPV as their co-invest — LP returns on an asset at cost basis while collecting GP fees on the same project. And the whole thing is designed to repeat. If you read the presentation from last night and believe in the plan (I do), a standardized modular design means each new campus is faster and cheaper than the last. The market is currently pricing $NUAI like a dilution machine that needs to issue stock to survive. Also, realistically it is also still pricing in the idea that there is no tenant and the entire company is a scam. I’m very comfortable at this point that the market is mispricing $NUAI on both points. I added significantly this morning around $5. If you believe that every available MW will be consumed by AI, $NUAI is the least dilutive / most levered bet you can take on this thesis right now. You just have to get comfortable with the team, which I personally am, even more so knowing that Ted Warner has signed on to bring them across the finish line.

@amitisinvesting Endless chop.

does it feel like extreme fear to anyone?

@mind1nvestor It's obvious looking under the hood of SPX. SPX flat but massive rotations between sectors. People don't want to pull out, they're just chasing the next horse.

If you’re struggling to navigate this market right now, the reason is fairly simple. The market ran hard since April and now needs time to cool off and rebuild strength. But instead of waiting, most people keep forcing trades, throwing money at every move without a real plan. That’s not investing. That’s impatience dressed up as conviction.

@BeardoTrader Most of the time, doing nothing is the right thing.

The last thing a trader wants to hear is “don’t trade.” But sometimes, doing nothing is the right thing to do.

@rokitdotgg Indeed.

citrini lied people died

@aleabitoreddit People clearly follow you for quick pumps when stuff like $SIVE pops 50% in a day. They do zero DD and when they fuck up they capitulate. 🤷‍♂️

It’s infuriating that so many people capitulated their positions. Because of X influencer doomposters who are now pretending to be bullish on $MU or $EWY. Or Bank Analysts who have 0 clue what they’re talking about. 99.9% of this place was bearish and posted: - “KOPSI Crash” - “Memory charts look like Silver?” Or something along the lines of “Helium/LNG/Oil” on the way down. But now that $SNDK and memory names are ATH (or getting close), everyone is now pretending to have been bullish all long. The vast, vast majority of X are extreme noise.