p911r
2.7K posts


@financialsamura Completely understandable, and I would be more than happy to pay a subscription to continue hearing your thoughts and read your content.
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Putting Up A Paywall To Fight AI And Support My Family financialsamurai.com/putting-up-a-p…
Well, folks, after 16 years of publishing free content three times a week, the time has come—I’m putting up a paywall. AI keeps scraping my work without credit, and after years of providing in-depth insights at no cost, I need to start earning from my writing to support my family.
I even took on a part-time job for four months just to keep Financial Samurai free. But endless meetings and directives reminded me why I left corporate life in the first place. So here we are—this feels like my only real option.
I’m sad, but also excited for what’s next! Thank you for your support all these years. - Sam
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Spot on! Tariffs usually slow economic growth because they push up costs for consumers and businesses, making trade less efficient. They might help certain industries in the short term, but overall, they tend to do more harm than good.
As for crude oil, falling demand does put pressure on prices, but it’s not the only factor. Things like OPEC+ production cuts or geopolitical tensions can push prices the other way. If demand drops without supply adjusting, then yeah, we’d likely see prices fall. It all depends on the bigger picture!
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Tariffs reduce economic growth & crude oil prices will likely face downward pressure due to lower demand. #oott
Here’s why:
1. Reduced Economic Growth → Lower Energy Demand
Tariffs increase costs for businesses and consumers, leading to slower GDP growth.
Slower growth means less industrial activity, fewer goods transported, and reduced fuel consumption.
This lowers demand for crude oil, putting pressure on prices.
2. Inflation vs. Interest Rate Response
Tariffs can also increase inflation by making imports more expensive.
If central banks raise interest rates to combat inflation, borrowing costs rise, further slowing economic activity and oil demand.
Historically, rising rates have been bearish for crude.
3. Global Trade Disruptions
If tariffs lead to retaliatory measures, global trade slows, reducing crude oil demand for shipping and manufacturing.
Key oil-consuming sectors (e.g., aviation, shipping, trucking) would see lower fuel consumption.
4. Market Speculation & Risk Aversion
Traders may sell off crude if they expect a prolonged economic slowdown.
Risk-averse investors might shift to safe-haven assets (like bonds, gold) instead of commodities.
Historical Example: U.S.-China Trade War (2018-2019)
Tariffs slowed global growth, reducing crude demand expectations.
WTI crude dropped from ~$75 to ~$50 per barrel in late 2018 due to trade war fears.
Conclusion
If tariffs significantly reduce economic growth, crude oil prices will likely fall due to lower demand expectations, tighter monetary policy, and weaker industrial activity. However, other factors (like OPEC+ supply cuts or geopolitical tensions) could counterbalance this effect.
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@financialsamura Good listen, hopefully some of the data points on multifamily play out as discussed.
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Why Residential Commercial Real Estate Looks Attractive in 2025 financialsamurai.com/residential-co…
As a value investor, I'm drawn to residential commercial real estate in 2025. The gap between stock valuations and commercial real estate has widened to unsustainable levels, presenting a compelling opportunity. Some commercial properties are trading at 2008 financial crisis lows, despite a much stronger economy today.
I spoke with @BenMillerise, CEO of Fundrise, to hear his four reasons for optimism about commercial real estate. Let me know if you agree.
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Manthey’s 911 GT3 RS kit is now available in the US, costs more than a Cayman GTS ➡️ top-gear.visitlink.me/lkujRy

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@SFE_Athletics Great effort, Wolves! So many positives to build on—keep pushing forward! 👏🐺
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The number one issue is the corporate capture of the regulatory agencies that are supposed to be working in the best interest of the health of the American people, once they get back to basing the decisions on what’s best for the health based on proper scientific studies, things will get a lot better.
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@paulrobertsrcz That was a great day when we shot my old 72 911E in Albert Blue!
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My favourite water-cooled Porsche… Got it for the novelty value but will keep it for its versatility and off the chart fun factor… exceptionally fun on gravel and super comfy as a commuter or road tripper and surprisingly excellent on tarmac. #porschedakar #911dakar

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