Andy Davis
1.5K posts


See this is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the metric works.
Vance Meek@vancemeek
@SandyMac718 Oh I get it. It's just made up nonsense. Are any of these "replacement level players" in the room with us now?
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@SandyMac718 As a cardinals fan: WAR can be a stupid stat. JJ will end up with more WAR than Pujols during his rookie year when he hit 330 with 37 homers, 47 2bs, and 130 rbi. Getting to a few more ground balls a month doesn’t make up the difference in those offensive numbers.
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Are people who don’t get WAR just pretending, or do they really not get it?
Vance Meek@vancemeek
This is why WAR is a ridiculous, meaningless stat
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@STLfan006457 It’s hilarious and I called it when fans demanded a rebuild. They complained about “only” making wild card games and now a less than a year into a rebuild they complain we re not making a wild card game. Could be way worse. Careful what u wish for
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@DocGrawitch @Cardinals Doesn’t matter, losing is losing. They ve already out performed expectations and fans are complaining half a year into the “rebuild” they demanded
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@pabsdavis @Cardinals Not winning is one thing. What they put on the field since the all-start break is embarrassing.
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Thank you, @Cardinals, for putting forth an absolutely embarrassing product on the field. Not selling the fans on coming back. Soon you'll be out of gimmicks to try. #stlcards
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@The_Ryan_Shull Thought we were tired of “just making the wild card.” Now, a half a year into a rebuild, we re hoping to make it in as a wild card
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@gatorfanNS13 @The_Ryan_Shull When he doesn’t k in half his at bats
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@vancemeek @PCF1996 There’s no guessing that JJ is a better defender. He just is. But yes, WAR is a completely made up, often misleading stat. It’s guess work at best
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@PCF1996 No, Stewart leading in nearly every offensive category, some by a lot, but JJ is a better defender (I guess) and his WAR is three points higher? That's putting WAY too much emphasis on defense
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@HostileCowboy @espn Maybe remember that baseball exists all summer
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Hey @ESPN here's an idea for you on how to make money so you don't have to do these yearly layoffs. Go back to reporting sports.
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@kyler416 Why are we holding on to him, crooks, and Rodriguez? Trade one or two of them while they still have good value
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@goc970 @RedbirdRiot Or maybe just put him in the pen where he was really good…. Solves two problems.
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@RayMileur1 I really don’t care much when slower players draw walks
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INSIDE THE NUMBERS: There may be a misperception forming around Iván Herrera and his value as the #STLCards DH.
The eye test says one thing, but some of the underlying numbers say something else.
Herrera’s slash line of .244/.370/.378 with a .748 OPS tells a pretty clear story.
He is still getting on base at an excellent rate.
His .370 on-base percentage is well above the Major League average, and that is not a small thing. That reflects patience, strike-zone judgment and an ability to avoid giving away plate appearances.
But the power side of the profile has not matched the on-base ability.
His .244 batting average is basically around league average, but the .378 slugging percentage is below where you would like it to be, especially for a bat the Cardinals are trying to keep in the lineup.
That is where the hard-hit data becomes important.
Herrera’s hard-hit rate is down significantly from last season, dropping from 47.7% to 38.9%. The MLB average is around 39%.
So while the overall OPS still looks respectable because the on-base percentage is carrying it, the quality of contact has not been the same.
That does not mean Herrera cannot hit.
It does not mean he is not valuable.
It does not mean you ignore the on-base skill.
But it does mean the offensive profile is more complicated than simply saying, “He gets on base, so keep the bat in there.”
If the impact contact is down, the slugging is below average and the power production is limited, then the Cardinals have to be honest about what kind of hitter he is right now.
Sometimes it takes the game, and fans, a little time to catch up to what we are seeing in real time.
Herrera still has real offensive value.
But the numbers suggest the bat may not be doing quite as much damage as the perception suggests among the fans who still see the 2025 version of Herrera at the plate.

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@amyknowsball I don’t think anything has been interesting on ESPN at all since Baseball Tonight back in the late 90s
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@StlMac_ Herrera has been average at best long before the all star game unfortunately
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This team is literally ass….Herrera is lost, O’Brien can’t locate for shit….maybe those two guys shouldn’t have went to the Allstar game, it ruined them
St. Louis Cardinals@Cardinals
Final: Angels 3, Cardinals 2
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@Cardinals Fans demanding a rebuild and then complaining that we re not that good less than a year into it…
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@RedWavePress Not for a second, have I regretted not having espn anymore
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@gerratdaen @BKSportsTalk I don’t care much about him drawing walks if he isn’t good on the bases.
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@BKSportsTalk Herrera will put it back together, and you can’t ignore his OBP, even when most of his statcast page is average he still has crazy batting run value. Whereas Burly has this and somehow isn’t one of the best hitters in baseball

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If the #STLCards came to the conclusion after this season that:
1) Ivan Herrera's long-term position is 1B
&
2) They have to choose *one of* Alec Burleson or Herrera to trade
Who are you dealing?
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@Cardinals_Live_ His first 3-30 slump with 15 Ks and you’ll want him sent down or released
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It's time to call up Baez
CF is a black hole - I'm sorry but Church isn't cutting it - we need some juice injected in these guys
The splits with Burleson is real - needs to be a split between him and Blaze -
Torres - DFA
It's time to shake it up #stlcards
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