Peter Merelis

@FirstSquawk elbows up!

CANADA BUILDING PERMITS (MOM) (FEB) ACTUAL: -8.4% VS 4.8% PREVIOUS; EST -0.4%

@slandermepls @citrinowicz You are living in an ideological hellscape of your own making. Focus on your pronouns and leave the geopolitics to the adults.

@petermerelis @citrinowicz The US administration is flailing about as the world blames them for cratering the global economy. The US hasn’t been able to defeat Iran, and is stripping other theatres of assets and wrecking the pivot to Asia for literally no gain. Strategic genius at work.

The escalation now appears increasingly unavoidable, especially as President Trump significantly raises the stakes. Iran is unlikely to back down. It will likely test U.S. resolve by targeting American naval assets, while also attempting to disrupt commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or deter tankers from transiting altogether. Such developments would almost certainly trigger a sharp spike in global oil prices, with cascading second and third order effects particularly across Asian economies that rely heavily on Gulf energy flows. At the same time, Iran will aim to project resilience and avoid appearing to capitulate under pressure. Further escalation would increase the likelihood of Houthi action in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, potentially threatening another critical maritime chokepoint. It would also raise the risk of Iranian strikes against infrastructure designed to bypass Hormuz, including pipelines such as the East-West corridor. While Iran would sustain significant damage, it will attempt to maintain oil exports through alternative routes like the Jask terminal, calculating that Gulf states may ultimately suffer greater economic harm. In any case, this is not a scenario with a clear winner, only varying degrees of loss. #iran

@onlyphloop @sdemarco89 @citrinowicz A drone won’t be able to strike a destroyer.

@petermerelis @sdemarco89 @citrinowicz You think there will suddenly be domestic support for boots on the ground in Iran bc a destroyer gets struck by a drone?

@slandermepls @citrinowicz Boo hoo

@petermerelis @citrinowicz Everybody hates the US over this.

@sdemarco89 @citrinowicz When did you decide to start hating the west?

@petermerelis @citrinowicz Finishing what job? The destruction of the American empire and another lost Middle East war? We lose a war against Iran on the ground.

@nara_gunny @JimHansonDC How exactly? Enlighten us.

@JimHansonDC Iranian already anticipated this. It is going to backfire spectacularly and Trump will TACO after his insiders take profit.

President Trump may impose a blockade on Iran Stopping their oil flow & revenue $$$. I've been calling for this since just after Epic Fury began. It puts THE maximum pressure on them & doesn't destroy any infrastructure. It would be a short term hit to oil prices BUT the most likely path to capitulation from the regime. If they can't pay their thugs to oppress the people they are in grave danger of being toppled. Taking their last real asymmetric threat and flipping it on them by saying "OK, if you want the Strait closed, that means for you too." Combined with one final kinetic push this could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

@AndreasSteno The goal is to remove Iran’s lone lever and suffocate them economically while pissing off China and Russia.

So the goal is now to close the strait or?

@DeItaone smart move. completely flips the dynamic. China and Russia will be getting Tehran on the phone shortly.

TRUMP: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY, UNITED STATES NAVY WILL BEGIN PROCESS OF BLOCKADING ANY AND ALL SHIPS TRYING TO ENTER, OR LEAVE, STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

@defacto__ @DeItaone @grok keep outsourcing your intellect to an LLM, moron.

@DeItaone This claim is false. Verified reports from Reuters, CENTCOM, and Trump’s own Truth Social post confirm the US is **clearing Iranian mines** from the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it for shipping—not imposing a blockade. @grok

@Osint613 finally

BREAKING 🔴🔴 Trump: Our navy will now block any ship trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz.

@grok @codetocompound @Polymarket keep outsourcing your intellect to LLMs without understanding how they work and you’ll end up doing nothing but chasing consensus regardless of veracity.

Higher oil/gas prices are generally **inflationary** in the short term. They raise input costs for everything from manufacturing to shipping to food, pushing up headline CPI/PCE (a 10% oil spike often adds ~0.4% to headline inflation per studies from Dallas Fed, Vanguard, and others). Longer term, they can act **deflationary** by draining consumer spending power (like a tax), slowing growth, and curbing demand—which some analysts (e.g., Fisher Investments, recent war-price analyses) call the dominant effect if sustained. Net: not purely one or the other. Depends on duration, monetary policy, and supply response.

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia says its East-West pipeline has been restored to full capacity, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

@codetocompound @Polymarket @grok higher oil/gas prices is NOT inflationary. it's deflationary. why is this so difficult to understand?

@Polymarket @grok how will this help the oil market, will it slow down inflation?

@CryptoNobler this was the expected outcome, moron.

🚨 WARNING: TOMORROW WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! The U.S.-Iran peace deal just got officially CANCELLED. When the market opens on Monday, it won’t be “just macro pressure” anymore. There’s a geopolitical trigger building underneath it all. Stocks will dump. Metals will dump. Crypto will take the hardest hit. Smart money is already exiting. They’re not taking profits. They’re building cash positions because something deeper is starting to break. The dollar is weakening in real time. This is not a one-day shock. This is pressure building across multiple fronts at the same time. And now there’s another layer being added: U.S.-Iran peace deal just got officially cancelled. After 5 days of negotiations, both sides walked away with no agreement. That changes everything. Because when diplomacy fails, uncertainty becomes IMMEDIATE. And markets don’t price “possibility.” They price escalation. There are only a few ways this plays out from here, and they are NOT equal: 1⃣ SOFT OUTCOME Backchannel talks resume, tensions cool, markets stabilize after initial volatility. 2⃣ ESCALATION PHASE No progress, tensions build, and markets begin pricing prolonged conflict risk. 3⃣ HARD BREAK Situation deteriorates rapidly, and the market reprices oil, risk, and global stability in hours. That last one is where things get dangerous. Because this isn’t happening in isolation. At the same time: → Bonds are being sold aggressively → Yields are rising fast → The dollar is losing stability → Liquidity is tightening Now connect the dots. When geopolitical risk collides with a fragile financial system, reactions don’t stay contained. They COLLAPSE. Oil doesn’t move slowly. It reprices violently. Capital doesn’t rotate calmly. It rushes to safety all at once. And risk assets? They don’t “dip.” They DUMP HARD. This is how chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing duration instead of shock, everything changes. Inflation expectations rise. Central banks get trapped. And policy responses come too late. That’s when the real damage happens. This could still pass as a short-term scare. But if markets start pricing escalation into next week, This is no longer noise. This is a regime shift. Not a pullback. Not a buying opportunity. A STRUCTURAL CHANGE in how risk is priced across the system. Pay attention to flows. Watch oil. Watch bonds. Watch volatility. Because once this accelerates, it doesn’t give you time to react. I’ve spent years tracking macro turning points and market reactions like this. When the next move becomes clear, I’ll share it. Follow and turn notifications on. Because by the time it hits the headlines, it’s already too late.

@zeytunstock by the time you are sure the stock will be much higher

Stay away from $PLTR until we know for sure that Anthtaropic and AI agents aren’t disrupting its business model.

@spectatorindex death it is

BREAKING: Iranian state media reports 'stalemate' in talks due to 'excessive US demands'

@polidemitolog And you don’t think those things are correlated? The dissonance is wild.

One very important thing Americans don't realize is that they're not the richest country in the world because they work hard and come up with genius ideas. It's because they're the world's leading empire with the dominance of the dollar in the global financial system. Take that out of the equation and America is just one more regional power with a bloated military it can't sustain and bankrupt with debt.

@atrupar Yes, yes it can.

It cannot be ruled out that this is a threat to use a nuclear weapon against Iran

@ChrisMurphyCT the internet will not forget that you're on the wrong side of history because you're not capable of seeing past your TDS.

If I were in Trump's Cabinet, I would spend Easter calling constitutional lawyers about the 25th Amendment. This is completely, utterly unhinged. He's already killed thousands. He's going to kill thousands more.

@AndreasSteno markets bottom exactly when sentiment is worst, not after. simple fact lost on many.

The amount of insults I have received based on this tells me that we are very very close to peak oil here